My guess is ESPN and Apple. The total will be slightly below Big 12
If we got that deal Iâd say it sucks overall.
It will be interesting to see what the GOR terms are if the PAC12 deal goes through, You have two flagships waiting in the wings for a B10 invitation. If they leave, that could dismantle the PAC12 as we know it.
That is really the next phase of the problem. UW and UO will want uneven revenue distribution of media revenues, not just other payouts. If so, then that is going to result in a ton of infighting with schools that also have options.
Still saying after all this that the PAC with USC/UCLA was having a hard time getting OUT-less B12 moneyâŠI donât see how they get close without USC/UCLA
This now is a very tough business environment for The PAC 10.
Knowing there is no real suitor beyond Internet Apps. ESPN can sit and wait.
This bodes well for our Big 12. We also can sit and wait.
This has been dead in the water for months.
ESPN and FOX have been very purposeful with the way this is being played.
The money wonât be there, even with APPLE.
It was never going to be there with ESPN or FOX after the BIG XIIâs deal.
Even if APPLE could get them in the ballpark ($300 million per year) the non-linear exposure would be a non-starter for half the conference.
George has until April 15th to put an acceptable media deal together.
Then, it will be over.
I predict the PAC will present a deal that on the surface will be better than the Big12 deal and then we will find out the conference is paying production costs or there are incentives based upon unrealistic subscriber growth included or something like that, but they will try spin it as a better deal.
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This x100000000
As I was sayingâŠ.
https://twitter.com/Outkick/status/1637846470538969090?s=20
https://twitter.com/ArtDirectorBYU/status/1637806707148566529?s=20
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I donât trust Outkick as far as I can throw 'em. Canât remember a major story theyâve broken.
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He is sceptical of the 4 moving to the Big 12 and doesnât think it helps the Big 12 as it relates to TV
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How do you know or trust the credibility of these reporters / journalists
They all have their sources theyâve cultivated over time, so thatâs who they talk to first. I donât think anyone writing for a real newspaper or a known publication would fabricate stuff, which if proven would cost them their jobs. Doesnât mean the info is good, just not deliberately false.
Lots of moving parts, we are all guessing.
I have been saying this is how this was all going to unfold for months.
Itâs too long to explain in detail, but a quick rundown is that:
-FOX never once bid on PAC media rights. They got what they wanted through the B1G.
-Once the Yormark cut in and negotiated the new deal with ESPN/FOX, there was only one time window that ESPN had any interest in. FOX was satisfied.
- That day the market crashed for the PAC. ESPN withdrew its offer from the PAC, and Kliavkoff got caught standing without a chair when the music stopped, and he has been scrambling and floundering since.
-At this point, it is way more advantageous for FOX and ESPN to abstain from making any good offers for the PAC because they can just sit back and let it collapse, and get the valuable properties they actually have interest in (UA, ASU, Utah, Oregon, Colorado, and Washington) and absorb them under the BIG 12 and possibly the B1G umbrella for a fraction of the cost they would have had to pay to keep the PAC together.
It has NEVER made financial sense for ESPN once the BIG 12 signed its deal to own the PAC rights also.
-Kliavkoff tried to thumb his nose at ESPN and take their rights to the open market. The BIG EAST tried to do that too. This is unfolding exaclty how that did.
-Apple isnât going to pay $300 million a year for PAC rights, and that is what it will take to get the PAC close to BIG 12 money.
-That thought would also be ignoring the fact that Apple would be 100% streaming with the exception of âMaybeâ ESPN or Amazon buying a game from them a week.
-ESPN/FOX are intentionally not making offers becuase they want to shake that tree and get the low hanging fruit that they want without paying multiple times what they need.
Do I trust these reporters?
No idea, but just keep watching all of this unfold with what I have been saying above.
The PAC might have been worth $30-$35 million back in October, but once Yormark did the greatest thing he will have ever done as a commissioner, the gig was up, the market crashed.
Something is ONLY WORTH, what someone else is willing to pay for it.
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The Pac Presidents all say the same thing âneed to see the media packageâ
Serious question- how long have PAC people "in the know " been saying they are âthis closeâ to a dealâŠand then NOTHING?
The biggest sign of desperation was the PAC attending a SMU basketball gameâŠwith NO invitation in handâŠand they still havenât invited SMU!
The PAC is beyond grasping for straws at this pointâŠthey are delusional.
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Without seeing the deal, doing anything else isnât the safest move for those in charge of the PAC schools. This could string out for a long time as no deal, good or bad, seems in sight.
Iâm not so sure. I mean, I donât think theyâre going to get the money they want, but Iâm often wrong about this kind of stuff.
But I think the biggest driving force right now is that the PAC 10 is a historic, tradition-rich conference. They have long-held rivalries. I believe most of the schools would rather stay together because of this more than anything else (as opposed, for example, to some peopleâs belief it is academic snobbery that keeps them from leaving).
But the moneyâs got to be close to what they can get elsewhere. Bills have to be paid. Without money, itâs hard to compete. They know this. With the exception of Washington State, Oregon State and maybe Cal, they all know they have value if the PAC breaks apart. Theyâll all find a home.
So they can and will wait and see what happens. Thatâs the only thing they can do if the PAC has any chance of survival, which is what at least 8 of the remaining 10 want.