Big 12 / SEC / B10 Expansion Thread (Part 2)

Football
8253

Then it may happen in 2036.

The blue bloods leave, devaluing the conference, and putting its money per school even further behind the Big 12.

Other schools now see more money elsewhere in the P3, and if half or more see that and have a chance to bolt, they vote to dissolve the conference, leaving only dwarves behind.

That group of dwarves may decide to stay together and still call themselves the ACC…and even invite G5s to join them, but it won’t be a conference with anything close to “power” conference TV money.

8254

https://www.si.com/college/clemson/football/will-clemson-announce-a-departure-from-the-acc-soon

2 Likes
8255

Lawsuits are worse now than then utah got it’s senator involved to get a pac invite not long ago and it wasn’t in the 90s

People sue nowadays and getting worse

8256

This. Exactly.

If a P2 becomes an NFL minor league there will not be enough viewers. See my earlier comments about MiLB and the G league. No premium money there.

1 Like
8257

Then it may happen in 2036.
Law, the ACC won’t survive past 2036. The point is to survive UNTIL 2036 which is why the new 3 schools got invited

The blue bloods leave, devaluing the conference, and putting its money per school even further behind the Big 12.
Adding the 3 new schools makes it impossible for ESPN to renegotiate down the current TV deal. Currently, the 3 blue bloods are getting ripped off for sure, the other schools are not. A conference cannot be “devalued” unless the TV payouts are renegotiated downwards, which they can’t be because again… that’s why the invited the 3 new schools…

Other schools now see more money elsewhere in the P3, and if half or more see that, they vote to dissolve the conference, leaving only dwarves behind.
Again, even if the 3 blue bloods leave before 2036, all the other ACC schools get whatever revenue the blue bloods get from the SEC and/or B1G every year until 2036 + exit fees. That money will most likely eclipse whatever they would get from joining the Big 12. The only way the ACC dissolves is if other times outside the blue bloods get invited to the Power 2, which is highly unlikely.

That group of dwarves may decide to stay together and still call themseves the ACC…and even invite G5s to join them, but it won’t be a conference with anything close to “power” conference TV money.
This makes no sense because the TV deal is already in place and is legally impossible to renegotiate. It makes no sense to add any G5 schools because the replacements (Cal, Stanford and SMU) have already been added purely for legal and survival reasons. The ACC’s situation is entirely different the PAC/Big12 situation. Stop comparing them…

8258

This isn’t the nfl

Your gonna leave out too many teams with legislative power

So just forget this

Simply they get way more money playoff spots and can pick off coaches from the weaker p4 so that is all that will happen

8259

But suppose they leave IN 2036. That scenario, even you agree, is EXACTLY what might happen. You AGREE with me that that IS coming, even if it isn’t coming until 2036.

That’s why I say. The ACC’s days are numbered. Whether it happens soon, or in 2036, the ACC is …DOOMED!!!

But even prior to 2036, suppose Clemson announces its departure (see the post above), then FSU, then UNC, to the SEC.

What’s to keep ND on board at that point? Suppose they bolt for the B1G.

At that point, you are down to 14 schools. I think that that’s the bare minimum to keep the conference alive at its current TV deal, which is already LOWER than the Big 12’s.

Suppose just one of Miami, GaTech, or UVa decide to bolt for the B1G together with ND.

At that point, the TV deal likely DOES get re-negotiated…and at a resulting rate low enough to make at least half of the remaining tweeners vote to dissolve with the hopes of going elsewhere, invalidating the GOR?

Just saying…that is HARDLY beyond the pale.

8260

Clemson out of acc soon
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8261

But suppose they leave IN 2036. That scenario, even you agree, is EXACTLY what might happen. You AGREE with me that that IS coming, even if it isn’t coming until 2036.
I don’t understand what your point is here… Yes, Clemson, FSU and UNC are going to be in the Power 2 at any moment between now and 2036. It’s inevitable. Their issue is figuring out how to leave before 2036. But yes, they will leave.

That’s why I say. The ACC’s days are numbered. Whether it happens soon, or in 2036, the ACC is …DOOMED!!!
The ACC’s GOR expires in 2036. By adding the 3 new schools, it insures that the conference survives until 2036 even if the blue bloods leave. THAT’S WHY THEY INVITED THE 3 NEW SCHOOLS. Yes, I agree the ACC as it currently stands, will not exist after 2036. They will either disband with some going to the P2 and others going to the Big 12, or there will be some full on merger with the Big 12 with the bottom schools potentially getting the fate of WSU/OSU.

But even prior to 2036, suppose Clemson announces its departure (see the post above), then FSU, then UNC, to the SEC.
What’s to keep ND on board at that point? Suppose they bolt for the B1G.
The only thing ND cares about is being independent. As long as the ACC exists, they will be able to remain independent. That’s why they were a major driving force in inviting the 3 new schools, to insure their independence.

At that point, you are down to 14 schools. I think that that’s the bare minimum to keep the conference alive at its current TV deal, which is already LOWER than the Big 12’s.
What? Even if the blue bloods leave, the ACC remains at 15 schools with the new teams. Notre Dame prioritizes independence over joining the B1G.

Suppose just one of Miami, GaTech, or UVa decide to bolt for the B1G together with ND. Won’t happen. Those 3 schools aren’t valuable to the B1G and aren’t worth partnering for ND. The only team ND would ever parter with is Stanford, but the B1G doesn’t want Stanford at least not right now.

At that point, the TV deal likely DOES get re-negotiated…and at a resulting rate low enough to make at least half of the remaining tweeners vote to dissolve?
No.

Just saying…that is HARDLY beyond the pale.

8262

You’re making a big assumption there.

Are you CERTAIN that ND isn’t going to join the B1G for all sports at that point?

I wouldn’t feel safe making that bet.

And if ND and Miami both join the B1G…then all bets are off, because at that point, you are below 14 teams, and a downward renegotiation of the TV deal is possible.

Tweeners are going to have the wandering eye at that point.

8263

Yes I am sure. However, I DO predict that Notre Dame will be in a conference come 2036, the year the ACC’s deal expires. Again, keep in mind that ND has VESTED INTEREST to make sure the ACC survives so that they can remain independent for as long as possible.

Notre Dame merely has a scheduling partnership with the ACC for 5 games. They negotiate all other TV slots on their own because they have the power to do that, and frankly, are the only brand in CFB that can do that.

Notre Dame’s entire identity is their football independence. The only way they join a conference is if the ACC disbands.

Other sports don’t matter in college athletics in regards to conference affiliation because football essentially PAYS FOR all other sports.

8264

The only reason they are in the ACC is to have a home for their other sports.

If it starts to look like that home is disintegrating, then they can always take all of their sports to their hockey conference (B1G) and call it a day.

8265

Yes and no.

They are members in the ACC for all sports except for football (and hockey). Yes.

They are scheduling partners with the ACC for football to remain independent. This is the primary reason they do this.

Independence is Notre Dame’s identity.

8266

ND really doesn’t want a conf. As long as tv pays them like they are now , they won’t and the playoffs will accommodate them. You’d have to research why ND doesn’t want a conf which is it would kill their identity and they prob never have to join a conf. Tv will pay bc they have a huge following. ND knows if they join a conf like the sec or big10 then they become less a brand and more of an also ran . Being independent allows them to go to big bowls, be ranked and play who they want nationally which is important bc the national schedule built ND’s brand. They would be 3 rd or 5th place in the sec or big 10 which they don’t want to be judged on. Right now there is no judgement of hey you didn’t win the conf etc.

ND could migrate to the big12 if needed but I think they stay Acc unless it gets really bad with miami etc leaving so they have options in big12 affiliation if it gets that bad.

Talk to a ND guy and you will hear what I said

8267

Notre Dame will be forced to join the B1G once the ACC no longer exists.

  1. Because they essentially already have an invite to the B1G right now

  2. The B1G’s and SEC’s football schedules will be way too overloaded to be able to accommodate just for Notre Dame’s sake.

Notre Dame WILL be a B1G member in all sports in 2036. You can put money on it.

8268

ND also doesn’t care about the money gap bc if they did, they could join the big10 or sec today. They have enough money to compete if they want to and this yr doing ok , close game vs Ohio st for a change.

8269

That’s my point though.

What if the blue bloods all leave for the SEC, and ND and Miami leave for the B1G?

It’s all over at that point.

Here’s the thing.

You and 3rd Ward MAY be correct about ND valuing its independence more than anything else.

If so, then that might end up being the ONLY thing holding the ACC together until 2036.

But come 2036….it’s OVER.

8270

ND could simply affiliate with the big12 somewhat and play 5 conf games in the big12 or stay with a depleted Acc and schedule tougher other games. The Acc would still be 4th at that point. I doubt Miami and some other brands would be happy so they prob look to us in the big12 maybe. Either way tge big12 is gonna be better than the Acc once all this happens down the road.

8271

That’s my point though.

What if the blue bloods all leave for the SEC, and ND and Miami leave for the B1G?
Again, ND isn’t leaving if independence is still an option. B1G doesn’t have any reason to invite Miami.

It’s all over at that point.

Here’s the thing.

You and 3rd Ward MAY be correct about ND valuing its independence more than anything else.

If so, then that might end up being the ONLY thing holding the ACC together until 2036.
I mean, sure? Everyone outside the blue bloods has a vested interest in remaining as the ACC.

1. They get to remain an academically-prestigious group of universities whereas the Big 12 is not really academically prestigious outside of a handful

**2. Geographically advantageous to remain together **

**3. If the blue bloods leave, then everyone shares whatever TV revenue they get from the SEC/B1G until 2036 (which would roughly be around 300 million a year if all 3 left together) **

4. Notre Dame remains independent in football

But come 2036….it’s OVER.
Who’s arguing this? Nobody is suggesting the ACC will exist after 2036…

8272

Some seem to think that it will be around after 2036, that it’ll still be a power conference, and that SMU has a long term power conference future as a result.

I, of course, LAUGH at that prospect.