What are the keys to growing the media dollars on the next round of negotiations?
Winning. BigXII is going to take a media hit with the departure of UT and OU. UH has been barking about oppression for the last 3 decades. It’s about to be time to put up or shut up for us. We can become a serious blue-blood if we can dominate recruiting within the fertile Houston area. But that’s really just Houston. If our (UH) goal is to be in a top 1 or 2 revenue generating conference, then our aspirations are beyond the BigXII. I don’t think UCF is going to bring enough Florida viewers and I don’t think BYU is going to bring enough Mormon viewers to put us in the Top 2. Otherwise, we can be content being 3rd in revenue and aspire to dominate in terms of success.
Edit: things could change if we manage to steal away a couple of schools like LSU or something, but that’s a LOOOOONG shot.
Big 12 lost its big bread winners
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Few scenarios I imagine:
After OUT happens, we poach four other P5s and kill the PAC-12 (or heck, from other conferences respectively)
OUT stay, and we bring in two schools from anywhere. SEC? ACC? Az/AzSt?
B1G breaks into Texas and invites Houston lol
By reminding Nebraska and Colorado that leaving the Big 12 did not improve their outcomes and to come back to daddy
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Their outcomes will be $100 million in revenue. They won the lottery going to the big
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Yeah but! its about dubs!
It’s all but certain that the new Big 12 will be 5th in revenue among the P5 conferences. Hopefully we won’t be that far behind the PAC and ACC. So there’s realistically zero chance of adding P5 programs. It is possible that UH could become a Top 10 program and the new bell cow of the Big 12 much as Miami was for the Big East from 1991-2003. But that won’t be easy. We have a ways to go to get there.
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And honestly, our the B12’s payout “ranking” is pretty meaningless when you compare the actual dollars received against what we would have had in the AAC and what we need to keep the program healthy. The SEC and B10 will be on another planet by comparison, but the AAC and others will be almost as far behind us as we’ll be behind the SEC/B10.
the money we make from 2023-2029 will be very comparable to PAC and ACC…the 3 of us will be behind the big 2…So what? There is no 1-5 scale…There is SEC and B1G, and then there is Big 12, PAC and ACC…our teams just as capable of winning a natty in FB and BB as any… Which we have demonstrated…Adding teams depends on B1G and if they are successful getting USC and UCLA to jump. If they succeed, Big 12 will go after Colorado and Utah and likely successful in getting them. If they dont, we happily stay at 12. Future expansion depends on what others do first, not us…
Maybe merge the remaining members of the PAC12. Take them all. Where else will they go? The SEC isn’t coming after Oregon State or Washington State. The B1G will not likely take them either. Yet, they would fit right in the Big XII from a fan support angle. They would help increase the academics.
So for the record that is:
Colorado
Utah
Oregon State
Washington State
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Stanford
Big 20, the first national collegiate football conference.
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The best case scenario for the Big 12 would be if somehow the GOR of the ACC fell apart and it got picked apart by the B1G and SEC. Then, if we were able to convince our eastern schools to sit tight, we get our pick of what’s left in the ACC and lo the Big XVIII is born, basically a 2-conferences-in-1 package.
(If you’re thinking “Would we even want what’s left of the ACC?” the answer is yes. The 6thish teams on the bubble would likely be something like NC State or Boston College, both of which we would be quite happy with.)
Whether the Big 12 gets the same kind of revenue as the PAC or ACC is very much in doubt. We simply don’t have the same number of viewers as a league with four strong players in the two huge markets in California plus the two big state schools in Oregon, Washington, and Arizona plus the flagships in Colorado and Utah. I am very much hoping Big 12 money will be within 10% or so of those other two leagues, but we can’t know. Bowlsby said losing Texas and Oklahoma meant losing 50% of the conference’s revenue stream, and the four new schools aren’t going to make that up. But as was mentioned, even in the worst case (say a payout of c. 25 million) we’d still be making three times what we did in the AAC. But I’m hoping we will be in the same ballpark as the ACC and PAC, and we may well be. The one thing that is highly unlikely but that would upset the apple cart would be if two or four of USC, UCLA, Washington, and/or Oregon were to move to the Big 10. If that were to occur, then the Big 12 probably would be in a position to get two or more of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State. But that’s a real long shot.
I too have my doubts about our media rights. But its really not about our ranking in the P5. What’s more important is what the B12 makes vs. g5. You want to ratio to be close to what it is today. The g5 as a whole got demonstrably weaker with the loss of Cincy, UCF, and UH. So while the B12 lost revenue generators they should be able to keep the same ratio long term vs the g5.
We don’t have to make as much as the PAC. We just need to be in the neighborhood. Like having a small house in River Oaks. You aren’t driving a Bentley but you still have the country club membership.
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This will change, but the PAC12 is very far behind the Big XII in revenue. It’s not even close today.
do we even have a commissioner yet?
Still Bowlsby. I heard the new one should be in place around mid-July.
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They are doing one hell of a vetting.
Extreme vetting, would you say?
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Wonder who they’re seriously looking at.