Their ceiling is a 4 seed due to bad metrics but unless they lose out and we get 4 bid thieves from the P6, AAC and MWC they’ll get in
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Don’t forget their q3 loss. And you’re right, they could be overseeded. Committee loves doing that for certain conferences, but they barely deserve to be in it currently.
One Q3 loss alone isn’t a killer. Arizona has a Q3 loss and is currently projected as a 1 seed. We had one last year and made it as a 1 as well. Saying South Carolina doesn’t deserve to be projected in the field is just silly. They’re 8-3 in Q1+Q2 combined. That’s really good. Don’t have the time to crunch the numbers on where their win% would rank but I know it’s pretty high.
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Because their schedule is sh*t. Metrics are better than people. All the metrics based stuff says they are a bubble team. That’s fact, not feelings.
Their schedule isn’t s***. It’s as tough as anything we played in the American. All the metrics back that up. Here’s a fact, they’re 3-3 Q1 record and 5-0 Q2 record gives them a very strong resume. Add in the fact that they’re 9-3 in the 3rd best conference in the country and they’ve got a pretty decent amount of wiggle room to make the tourney.
Here’s a fun exercise, look at the NET rankings and compare South Carolinas resume with the teams ranked ahead of them. You have to make it 20+ spots before you find a team with as good of a resume.
Edit: btw I finally had time to compare their Q1+Q2 win% with the rest of the country. It’s 4th behind us, UConn, and Purdue. Told you it was really good lol
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Q1 isn’t a great predictor, KenPom however is. They do have a similar overall schedule strength to UH when we were in AAC… however we were knocked for said schedule even though all the metrics showed we were a top 4 team every year. Meanwhile, the metrics show them with same type of schedule as 50+.
They are a bubble team. That is how good they are. That is a fact.
Q1 etc is an arbitrary term. if someone is one spot difference they suddenly aren’t a Q1 win anymore.
Predictive metrics take into account the exact strength of every team you lay and also HOW well you played against every single one.
You are just wrong, basically like every human on earth that uses their feeling over facts.
You know, like all the people who thought Memphis was good for the first two months of the season.
Remove the name of their conference and the name of the school and if any other team had that record with that schedule and their metrics based rankings are what they are you wouldn’t be arguing with me.
SC is a bubble team.
We were knocked for our schedule by talking heads, not the committee. Our worst seed line in the American was a 6. We were also a 3, 2, 5, and 1. That’s pretty good.
As for KP it’s okay but it’s not perfect. There’s always outliers in any system. Teams that will be undervalued or overvalued. You can keep calling them a bubble team but that doesn’t make it true. Lol
I’ll just add South Carolina isn’t getting a bump because of their name. It’s crazy to even suggest that.
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They have two wins that are better than any of ours.
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To say S. Carolina is a bubble team is crazy.
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And their Net is 50.
It should only improve a bit from there.
They are a #3 to #5 seed as of today.
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Yes i have. I just dont see them winning that matchup.
Preview released today…
https://x.com/MarchMadnessMBB/status/1758853817079337125?s=20
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NCAA Bracket Preview South Region:
(1) Houston - 3 overall
(2) Marquette - 7 overall
(3) Alabama - 9 overall
(4) Illinois - 15 overall
I’m very whelmed by this… don’t mind it at all.
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Coogs a top seed, #3 overall on the preview show.
Would not kind that bracket at all.
Illinois has changed their style of play from past yrs
Quincy Guerrier at the 5. And 4 guards. I wouldn’t wanna see then as a 4 seed.
San Diego St or Wisconsin, i would prefer.
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West bracket is weak. I can see someone outside top 4 seed winning that bracket.
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Weakest is probably the Midwest or ours. The West is stout as long as Kansas gets McCullar back. The East is probably the strongest overall even with Wisconsin who’s in free fall mode. Final brackets gonna look quite a bit different tho.
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That depends on how the 5-11 seeds look but out of those 4, Auburn is probably the best team there