The revenue-sharing contract currently being discussed includes a look-in provision encouraged by Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark. The provision in question concerns, you guessed it, further conference realignment.
So the Big 12 is interested in raiding someone? That could be the logical response to why Yormark would propose such a provision… A simple raid where Big 12 takes ACC malcontents and actually relieves pressure on the ACC…Or is something more sinister happening, like BIG, SEC and Big 12 carving up ACC between them…
FSU, UNC and Clemson should theoretically be making the same amount of money that Vanderbilt is making right now. ESPN is getting SEC-level viewership with those 3 schools specifically for the price of Big 12 teams. ESPN is not in any rush to pay those schools 3x what they make now.
As far as the other ACC schools with exception to maybe Virginia, nothing really changes because they will pay them roughly the same amount in a hypothetical ACC-Big 12 merger. Virginia is realistically the only school outside of the big 3 that will get a P2 invite, most likely to the B1G.
If a ACC-Big 12 merge does happen, then 1-3 schools in the ACC will get shoved off similar to Wazzu and Oregon State, which IS what ESPN would want.
Under that scenario, 23 and 24 are Miami and Pitt. L-Ville is the odd man out as they don’t have a rival already in like Miami (FSU) further up and Pitt (WVU already in)
I honestly don’t know how the future is going to look.
I wouldn’t be suprised if the highest revenue-earning teams from both the SEC and B1G end up forming their own conference together.
If the SEC and B1G remain as conferences, then I think once the current wave of TV contracts come to an end, the ACC will be in a much better situation to formally disband without all the legal implications.
Florida State (SEC, or B1G if they get AAU membership)
North Carolina (SEC only because Texas now solidifies the SEC as an academic conference)
Clemson (SEC)
Virginia (B1G)
Notre Dame (B1G)
NC State (only because of politics with UNC) or Miami (one or the other to the SEC)
Everyone else in the ACC will be forced to merge with the Big 12, with 1 or 2 being unfortunately downgraded to the G5 such as Wake Forest and Syracuse
The last option is if both the SEC and B1G remain and both undergo relegation unanimously to get rid of low revenue programs like Vanderbilt and Rutgers, but I doubt it goes this for if they intend to remain as separate conferences
I don’t see either conference going higher than 20.
You would get the matchups that the media networks want, with each Tier playing most of their games against other teams within the same Tier across regions. You also then get to keep regional rivalries alive. AND every team has a chance to make it up the ladder. Everyone wins.
Majority of schools in D1 depend on conference payouts for their athletics budget. Meaning their facilities, staff, meal plans, etc etc… all are dependent on a consistent media payout. Universities have to budget out their athletic programs years in advance. Relegation would make this very very difficult
A relegation system will hurt the student athletes big time, and university administrators would never ever agree to a relegation system.