So finally catching up to what you said weeks ago by losing to the the number 8 team.in the country on the road
Iām glad Iām not the one trying to figure all this out. That said, I appreciate the folks that doā¦
1 Like
Would we not hold tiebreaker over Utah if we are both 2 loss teams? Even before we won last night ESPN had us slotted ahead of Utah in 4th and they were 5th. Both equal conference records.
Utah is the odd one that I havenāt figured out.
So i just go with the worst case scenario for UH and hope that Utah loses 1 more, but you could be right that UH holds the tiebreaker over Utah
UH also beat the team that beat Texas TEch, so that probably helps out
UH is not going to be in it.
But we can go 11-2.
6 Likes
thatās the spirit
UH āmightā be in it.
ā¦and thereās still a slim possibility we play MORE THAN 13 games.
If UH plays in the CCG, and Wins, they will play 14 games.
ā¦and under the āunlikelyā scenario, win the CCG, or get an āat largeā bid , they will be in the CFP and the Coogs ācouldā play up to 17 games.
Most likely somewhere between 8-5 and 11-2. Closer to the later, IMO.
8-5 - 10% (lose every remaining game)
9-4 - 25% (win one of the next 3 / TCU, Baylor, Bowl Game)
10-3 - 35% (Win 2 of the next 3 / TCU, Baylor, Bowl Game ā¦orā¦ Win out, get a CFP Playoff āat largeā spot and lose in round 1)
11-2 - 20% (Win out but donāt make the CCG or playoff and Win our Bowl Game)
There are multiple scenarios where we play more than 13 games, but they all require getting into the CFP. In total, I put the combined odds @10%.
I believe the odds SLIGHTLY FAVOR a 10(+) win season. As, at this point, I donāt see an 8-2 team losing 2 of their last 3.
Man, that WVU loss is coming back to haunt us, but we canāt rule out chaos, giving us a lifeline.
DISCLAIMER: The odds are my āgut feelā. Iām sure there will be people who disagree.
Tech just had a good season. Kansas had a few. Iowa State had a few. TCU ditto. Iām not willing to make Tech the standard-bearer of the conference quite yet.
UH can only control its own performance over TCU and Baylor. It has no control over the post-season. If UH manages to beat those two, they will have taken care of business and I will be happy and enjoy whatever bowl UH plays in.
2 Likes
Our record is great but itās little bit of foolās gold. We are 3-0 against three teams that are a combined 2-17 in league play. And we donāt play BYU, Cincinnati or Utah, who are a combined 14-4.
4 Likes
BYU and Cincy both got exposed
Maybe but BYUs best win was against a 3-3 Arizona team. Cincys best win was against a 3-3 Baylor team. Our best win is against ASU whoās 4-2 and likely to win out and finish 7-2.
2 Likes
I remember when you said that during the first qrt of the BYU ISU game
TT s good at exposing teams, that team is just flat out good. Tech by far is head and shoulders every team in the B12 imo. Their downfall is they canāt score when in the red zone 98th in the country, not good.
1 Like
Yeah I got that exposal wrong
BYU didnāt get exposed that one
@FunkMasterMilluns I agree about Tech
But Schiel Wood is an elite Defensive Coordinator
If Tech keeps him, they stay revelant
2 Likes
If the Coogs go 10-2, thereās a better chance of an āat largeā bid than folks on this MB are giving them. I would say 40-50% chance.
Hereās whyā¦
- A fair amount of remaining 1 and 2 loss teams that are left, after this weekend, regardless of conference affiliation, will lose again.
- Our SOS, although pretty low, in comparison to other 2 loss teams, will improve after beating TCU and Baylor.
- If the Coogs are 10-2, theyāll either be in the CCG, or be the #3 team in the Big12. In either case, weāll have either a better record than the CCG runner up, or the CFP could, potentially, give the Big12, 3 playoff spots.
Likely? No.
Possible? Yes.
Our best chance of making the CFP, is to make play in, and Win, the CCG. And we donāt control that part of our destiny; yetā¦
Between this weekend, and the next 2 weeks, more SEC Teams will pick up a third loss; and the B1G only has 3 playoff worthy teams.
2 Likes