I punched in some numbers using the Massey Index. The cool thing is I have a spreadsheet that accounts for post-realignment
Observations:
The Big 12 is very strong. With its current configuration it is the strongest conference this season, though once you take UT and OU out and add the rest of us the SEC slips ahead. Either way, the “SuperTwo” this year are the SEC and Big 12, with the Big Ten running a fair bit behind. Last season, if I recall, the SEC, Big Ten, and Big 12 were all in a group with the SEC a bit ahead.
The AAC is a strong conference this season. Closer to the ACC and Pac-12 than either of them are to the Big 12. Even if you account for realignment the margin between the AAC and Sun Belt is small (and the gap closed some from the previous week). If this season isn’t a fluke, with its money and TV deal the AAC is in strong shape to reclaim the sixth spot.
Rumors of the Pac-12 resurgence appear to be exaggerated. They are ahead of the ACC if you include the undefeated LA schools, though.
The Mountain West Conference is having the worst season I think it’s had in its history. Last season they eeked out the AAC to be the sixth best conference.
Conference USA, on the other hand, is actually having a pretty good year so far. (Those numbers do not include SHSU and Jacksonville State, however.)
Thank you for the calculation but how does that help the BIG12?
We are quickly going toward a P2 system.
How “politically” will it be stopped is IMO the biggest question on the horizon. These P2 schools are mostly public. Work to stop the P2 has to start now. A cfp with 12 schools is trying to act as a “smoke screen” with what’s to come.
Future Big 12 pulling within spitting distance of the Future SEC. In fact, the Big 12 is ahead until I entered the last team… us. Current Big 12 is ahead of Current SEC by roughly the same margin as last week.
Current Conference USA has pulled ahead of the Mountain West Conference.
Sun Belt got some extra breathing room from Future AAC.
The Pac-12 and ACC are roughly equidistant between oru current conference (with us in it) and our future conference (also with us in it).
I also put together some hypothetical numbers adding the corner schools to the Big 12 and four coastal schools to the Big Ten. Basically expansion hurts both conferences competitively, though the Big 12 much more than the Big Ten.
Big 16: 44.1 (-10.3)
B1G 20: 44.9 (-2.1)
Pac-2: 41
Ironically, the two being left behind are better than either set of four.
Updated numbers. I added a new column for hypothetical conferences. Mostly combinations rumored and asked about. The PacWest was my selection of teams based on a number of factors. People are going to have their own line-ups but I ran several combinations and most of them were square in the 70’s with this one being about average. My two most controversial inclusions, New Mexico and UTSA, cancel each other out because the latter is good and the former terrible.
