Good thing we were ready… I’d hate to see what the numbers would look like if we weren’t
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We’re no 1!
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Looks like we have the Silver with the death rate. I’ll take it for now with Germany with the Gold.
It’s super early in that race, we’ve certainly taken a long term approach to that. I can pay a death rate graph when I get back to my computer. Suffice to say it’s gaining steam and not losing it
I think we’ll be OK on that front. Its been holding and with more testing and discovery of cases it should help our rate.
Germany is off the charts and probably won’t be caught except by much smaller countries. See them this week and there were predictions about a week ago that their death rate was going to go way up. Very promising it hasn’t gone in that direction at all.
I think you may be surprised to hear but we are still in early stages.
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Correct, we are in week 1 of a 3-4 week stretch. The effects of all those spring breakers returning home will become apparent in the next 10 days. If there is no great increase in hospitalizations we can say we are coming out. I won’t put much faith in infection rates numbers as our testing is still incredibly low.
Maybe we can flatten the curve, particularly in the southern and midwestern states because of low population densities. That would be great.
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And a heat wave
Bad news, the guy who “published” the French hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin study is a serial data forger and charlatan. People have already seen really bad holes in his results. This of course doesn’t mean it cant work, but please don’t base anything on this fake science. Producing this fake study preying on people hopes and fears is reprehensible.
https://twitter.com/kennwhite/status/1243152451139784711?s=19
Nice day today. Great weather. People out and running and jogging and walking and even fishing. Of course keeping their distance. Definitely needed the sunshine and the warmer weather.
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I had a most productive day in my yard. Awesome weather and a really good workout.
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Caused a guy to take aquarium cleaner!
After reading all I could find from JPM recently, this appears to be a qualitative projection of where they feel countries are on this perfect bell curve. I see no quantitative analysis behind it. Of course, everyone’s pace across this curve will proceed at a difference pace.
This is good news and I think we all need some good news.
Neil Ferguson’s original projections which shocked the world based uppon what he tought was going on in China appeared to be extreme worse cast scenarios of 500K in the UK with a today’s projection of 20K. What a difference since Jan. The UK are currently at 11, 658 and he has them only going to 20K now. That is a huge 25 times swing improvement from where he was projecting for the UK and US from then to now.
Too bad researchers didn’t dive into these numbers long before because these projections certainly help set policy leading into this shut down.
Dr. Deborah Birx, the President’s expert at daily their daily COVID-19 briefings shot the original projections out of the water today during the briefings.
If the UK grows only to 20K, it’ll be a huge victory! I doubt it. His new analysis leaves enough doubt that if things get worse that his new prediction, he can go back and say that not everything went the way he assumed it would.
Personally my own (admittedly probably not the most robust) model projects UK getting to 20,000 within the next 2-3 days with 90% confidence and within 5 days with 95% confidence.
20K deaths
Did anyone happen to read this article by the LA times citing Stanford Biology Professor Michael Levitt? Not too sure what to make of it quite yet, but would love to hear everyone else’s thoughts.
Response from one of the researchers whose analysis Dr. Birx used.
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243347447537115136?s=21
Either Dr. Birx didn’t understand the analysis or deliberately chose to focus on the best case scenario, which according to the researchers themselves is highly unlikely as the best case scenario relies on testing on a large scale and contact tracing.
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Any analysis where the researcher repeatedly says there is a lot of noise, should be treated as highly suspect. This is a newspaper article so naturally statistical details are missing. I would like to see the error bars and confidence interval of his analysis.
Also cases in Iran are still rising, as they are in Spain. There are just too many confounding factors to do a proper statistical analysis of this nature while we are still in the middle of a pandemic.
I think the last para of the article says it best.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty right now,” he said. “In China they nipped it in the bud in the nick of time. In the U.S. we might have, or we might not have. We just don’t know.”
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