Early look into Next Season

Basketball
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We have a few days to kill before the Big 12 Tournament, so I have been looking ahead to next season, especially with the huge dynamic shift over the last few games.

Potential Roster (with some rotation and draft assumptions by me)

Starters
PG - 6’4 Mercy (or a homerun portal PG)
G - 6’6 Harwell (portal threat)
G - 6’6 McCarty
F - Portal PF, does not need to be a superstar but should have some scoring ability
F - 6’8 JoJo, probably a 2nd round pick at best, will likely make more money staying in college

Bench
C - 7’1 Arafan
PG - 6’2 Ikenna
F - 6’11 McFarland
G - 6’3 Kord (portal threat)
G/F - 6’6 Jackson
C - 6’9 Lath (portal threat)

  • Backfill portal players to get to 14 scholarships

Decisions

Mercy has been running point guard in garbage time minutes, and I do not think we would be opposed to using him there if needed. We will definitely take our shot at some of the best players in the portal, but we probably will not have the biggest NIL offers. If someone at the Pop Isaacs caliber ends up being our best portal option, I think Mercy could still end up starting at PG.

Harwell adds complexity to what next year might look like. Five games ago he was a locked in starter for next year. Since the losing streak, he has been demoted to almost no minutes. He was a five star recruit and will absolutely have options if he enters the portal.

McCarty, in my opinion, was always slotted to start next year and was always going to be the vocal leader of the team. This season ending stretch solidified that. I hope we use him as a wing and not slot him at PF. I think he could end up at PF if we land a highly touted portal PG and Harwell stays, since Harwell probably only stays with a clear path to starting. In that scenario, my projected lineup shifts down one spot and the portal forward disappears.

Thoughts on the Team

With some offseason development, I actually really like the team. Again, that depends on development.

Defense: If the portal PG and portal PF at least bring above average defense, this could be the best defensive unit we have had here in a while, especially if we keep McCarthy at the 3 and JoJo returns. The bench could also be defense focused with players like Kord, McFarland, Jackson, and Alonzie. There is some scary defensive potential for next year.

BUT There is also a scenario where we land a Pop Isaacs type PG, Mercy slides to the 2, and McCarty plays the 4. That could be a weaker defensive lineup.

Rebounding: The portal PF will also define whether we are a top five national rebounding team, especially with 6’6 players at both the 2 and the 3. The foundation would be there for a elite rebounding unit, just need a quality PF.

Offensively, on paper it could take a drop. If everyone performs at the same level they are now, it might actually look pretty rough. However, Mercy, McCarthy, and Harwell could all make big jumps. Harwell especially has Quentin Grimes type offseason jump potential. Put him on the 1,000 threes a night program.

If we can keep McCarty at the 3 and pick up a PF with some low post scoring/three point shooting ability, that would help a lot. Realistically the first shot offense might drop a bit, but second chance offense should improve, similar to our teams two or three years ago. Landing a star PG would define the offense. Even without one, the defense and rebounding could carry a lot of the load.

Side note: we should also pick up a second senior PF for depth, mainly as a hedge in case Arafan and McFarland are not ready.

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I would love to see Mercy back

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McCarty, after today, everyone should know how to spell his name

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He is the new Galen

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Right?

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@pesik do you have a tentative list of pgs or pfs you’d like to or think would come next year?

I know historically it’s someone we recruited or played against.

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Respectfully, don’t put players as “portal” if you have zero clue other than he hasn’t played great this season. People did that to mercy all year last year. It’s unnecessary and has no backing. If you have some insider info, that’s different. But a hunch doesn’t cut it. Respect these players

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7’1 Arafan is going to start. He’s is going to be a dominant big man in Houston.

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I would go steal the point guard from Auburn

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Thoughts on potentially this team being led by Kellen?

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Personally I don’t see Harwell as a portal threat. IIRC, he was the first commit last year and some of the biggest reasons that Cenac and King came here. He recruited them really hard. Now anything can change but I just don’t see him as a portal guy. It’s not like he was benched for clashing with our system or not getting minutes. He got tons of minutes, tons of opportunity to show out but I he’s still trying to regain form after an ACL injury. I don’t think he would have necessarily played any better this year on a different team.

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Agree with the above. I think Harwell with off season conditions could come out the gate like Kingston.

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Very good possibility

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Thinking next year gonna be rough compared to our standards, if we lose say 10-15 games next year our fanbase is going to go ape sh!t lol, definitely gonna be a drop off

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I think Harwell is going to make a big jump from his freshman year to his sophomore year. I think his injuries have played a big part in his struggles this season. However, the flashes we have seen make me very optimistic. It wasn’t that long ago, a couple of people were thinking maybe he should start ahead of Milos just for defense.

I could see a starting lineup of:

Harwell
McCarty
Tugler
Transfer PG
Transfer PF

Mercy and Arafan as first 2 off the bench.

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Arafan reminds me of someone:

I can’t wait for Arafan to step into a UH uniform. He is a “true” center with post up plays, inside presence and an outside shot that we have not seen since the 80’s. I will be surprised if Arafan does not start or at least get major minutes.

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I noted (portal threat) not that they were going in the portal… my analysis assumed everyone comes back

But it’d be odd to add Acknowledgement that there’s a possibility they leave if there is a possibility

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A few things

  • these are game 1 starters…

  • My early look assumes jojo is back. No one is supplanting jojo

  • Centers have traditionally been slow in picking up our system. The monster defense isn’t a plug and play thing. Being dominant low post scorer doesn’t mean minutes in our system… we started Reggie for 10 games over Carlton, Carlton was the best low post scorer we’ve had under Sampson and that wasn’t a strength for Reggie

  • I know theres the “play jojo and Arafan together” argument… point 1 1) teams would just camp in the post with their 4 and 5… terrible spacing, even the video above saying he should be top 5 notes he is very trap-able, iso is where he thrives… jojo/arafan together would likely neutralize both of them, and give teams overall better post defense (can leave players in the post) … I think we are more likely to see McCarty/ jojo at the 4/5, than jojo/arafan if we don’t land a 4 in the portal … point 2) our centers foul, both will likely only see 20-24 minutes each…instead of having them stack fouls at the same time, have them be replacements for each other

  • Sort goes with my last point jojo is foul prone, arafan will get his minutes

Talking logistically a an senior portal offensive stretch 4 that can low post and shoot 3s (aka Fabian, Gorgam, Devin Davis) would better fit the makeup

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I hope he comes back too, I noted I see a ton of potential with him in the analysis and could have a big year

just giving a real response not a “coog glasses “ one
He is a 5star recruit that will have options in the offseason with big nil bags…he has been demoted to not in the rotation at all after the 3 losses…again he came into the year as a projected 1st rd pick (keep that context in mind).

I believe your point, is that season wide he has got a ton of minutes and would have struggled at any school… no athlete looks at situations like that … all athletes look at moment in time, not season wide…and moment in time at seasons end he is fully healthy and getting no pt… also no one accepts they’d have just been bad everywhere… the counter is that the coaches are in his ear talking him through the current situation in a way that he understands and takes as a challenge

Ps I’m not saying he will leave, and I want him back… I see him as what could be the core of our best ever defense

I get slander for not saying coog favored take, but what I stated is just a real take.

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Arafan Diane (pronounced DEE-AH-NAY) will be the biggest player in UH history. He’s the size of Shaq. Tugler is puny compared to him.

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