All data from WarrenNolan.com.
Houston predicted results for rest of season using RPI.
Conference current standings, predicted final standings, current RPI and predicted RPI.
Predicted RPI top 18 “Nitty Gritty Report” (highlighted teams are conference leaders)
Cincy predicted results
I’m going to throw some in there. I have taken Warren Nolan’s numbers and created a ranking based on their Pythagorean Win Percentage (which is based on points scored vs points given up I believe) then multiplied it by the metrics of their SOS.
The top 35 I get is:
Team PWP SOS Score
1 Duke 0.9208 0.6076 55.947808
2 Gonzaga 0.9392 0.5666 53.215072
3 Virginia 0.9386 0.5624 52.786864
4 North Carolina 0.8235 0.6049 49.813515
5 Michigan State 0.8397 0.5769 48.442293
6 Texas Tech 0.8559 0.5657 48.418263
7 Houston 0.8647 0.5582 48.267554
8 Michigan 0.862 0.5597 48.24614
9 Kentucky 0.839 0.5721 47.99919
10 Tennessee 0.8687 0.5504 47.813248
11 Virginia Tech 0.8783 0.54 47.4282
12 Iowa State 0.8241 0.5708 47.039628
13 Auburn 0.8271 0.5686 47.028906
14 Louisville 0.7784 0.6035 46.97644
15 Purdue 0.7595 0.616 46.7852
16 Wisconsin 0.791 0.5853 46.29723
17 Villanova 0.7615 0.5876 44.74574
18 Nevada 0.853 0.5245 44.73985
19 Kansas 0.6719 0.6599 44.338681
20 Cincinnati 0.8377 0.526 44.06302
21 LSU 0.7516 0.5852 43.983632
22 Maryland 0.7473 0.5773 43.141629
23 Marquette 0.7595 0.5604 42.56238
24 Saint Mary’s College 0.7681 0.554 42.55274
25 Buffalo 0.8032 0.5285 42.44912
26 Florida State 0.7334 0.5752 42.185168
27 Utah State 0.8145 0.516 42.0282
28 Nebraska 0.759 0.5469 41.50971
29 Mississippi State 0.7058 0.5873 41.451634
30 Baylor 0.7451 0.5555 41.390305
31 Washington 0.7333 0.5627 41.262791
32 TCU 0.7087 0.5775 40.927425
33 Wofford 0.785 0.5202 40.8357
34 Ohio State 0.7242 0.5636 40.815912
35 Kansas State 0.7058 0.5779 40.788182
Wow. I had not looked at Cincy’s finishing stretch – I do not see any Ls on there other than UH. They lost to ECU on the road but at UConn, at SMU and at UCF doesn’t seem too terribly hard for them. The two games against Cincy are huge.
Suppose it comes about as projected except that we beat Cinci at their place the last game of the season. How much would that move the needle at that point?
Edit: Not looking for a re-calculation of everything. Just general impression.
It’s a fair question but WarrenNolan doesn’t keep track of all the percentages, just the projections. RPIForecast would show percentage chances of winning like 27-4 10%, 28-3 20%, 29-2 50%, 30-1 20% and then show what the projected RPI would be in each of those scenarios. Unfortunately it seems to be a dead site. Hasn’t been updated since the tourney last year. I suspect the announcement of the NET rating made all the data crunching not worth the trouble. Maybe when they figure out the exact NET formula they’ll update the site to that system.
We’re #7 in NET, that seems to slot us as a 2 seed at the moment. Might actually take winning out to have that stick
Now, run the table all the way to a conference title and at 33-1 we might be a little bit of conference tournament chaos away from owning a 1 seed. Be still my heart!
It’s hard to predict stuff like that at this point. you can’t take into account teams around you and how they may do in their conference tournaments etc.
But According to one site we have a 63% chance to finish 28-3 OR BETTER!
Have to like that.
Care to link the source? I’m always looking to find different sources with different metrics.
Pretty sure you’ve mentioned them before too.
Thanks. Don’t recall but maybe I googled something specific once and used this site. Could have been one of the other stat junkies though. I do like that it shows scoring margin. Easier for me to break down how a team like Nevada with a much weaker schedule than Houston gets ranked higher on that site and Kenpom.
So, what’s the best guess as to UH and Cincy rank in the AP/Coaches if we’re 29-1 going into Ciny on 3/10 and Cincy is 26-4? And does Cincy drop out of the ranking altogether if we beat them by less than 10 on Sunday?
Have no clue what Cincy would move up to by the next meeting but I’d be surprised if Cincy drops out of the rankings if they lose to us Sunday by less than a blowout. They will get some credit for winning at Memphis last night.
I would put that % at 100 % !
It’s a great credit to the angry midget that his squad is just a tad off center this year and they’re still projected to finish with our same record in conference and possibly five losses on the year.
That right there is quality program maintenance.
I trust that you are talking about Mini-Me !!!
Gotta like that even in a predictor that has our second loss by only two points, we beat the predictor by 1 point Sunday and 2 points tonight. If we stay ahead of the predictor (which already has us rated 4th in the country already) we could be the favorite going into Cincy in the season finale.
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