I’m going to throw some in there. I have taken Warren Nolan’s numbers and created a ranking based on their Pythagorean Win Percentage (which is based on points scored vs points given up I believe) then multiplied it by the metrics of their SOS.
Wow. I had not looked at Cincy’s finishing stretch – I do not see any Ls on there other than UH. They lost to ECU on the road but at UConn, at SMU and at UCF doesn’t seem too terribly hard for them. The two games against Cincy are huge.
Suppose it comes about as projected except that we beat Cinci at their place the last game of the season. How much would that move the needle at that point?
Edit: Not looking for a re-calculation of everything. Just general impression.
It’s a fair question but WarrenNolan doesn’t keep track of all the percentages, just the projections. RPIForecast would show percentage chances of winning like 27-4 10%, 28-3 20%, 29-2 50%, 30-1 20% and then show what the projected RPI would be in each of those scenarios. Unfortunately it seems to be a dead site. Hasn’t been updated since the tourney last year. I suspect the announcement of the NET rating made all the data crunching not worth the trouble. Maybe when they figure out the exact NET formula they’ll update the site to that system.
We’re #7 in NET, that seems to slot us as a 2 seed at the moment. Might actually take winning out to have that stick
Now, run the table all the way to a conference title and at 33-1 we might be a little bit of conference tournament chaos away from owning a 1 seed. Be still my heart!
It’s hard to predict stuff like that at this point. you can’t take into account teams around you and how they may do in their conference tournaments etc.
But According to one site we have a 63% chance to finish 28-3 OR BETTER!
Have to like that.
Thanks. Don’t recall but maybe I googled something specific once and used this site. Could have been one of the other stat junkies though. I do like that it shows scoring margin. Easier for me to break down how a team like Nevada with a much weaker schedule than Houston gets ranked higher on that site and Kenpom.
So, what’s the best guess as to UH and Cincy rank in the AP/Coaches if we’re 29-1 going into Ciny on 3/10 and Cincy is 26-4? And does Cincy drop out of the ranking altogether if we beat them by less than 10 on Sunday?
Have no clue what Cincy would move up to by the next meeting but I’d be surprised if Cincy drops out of the rankings if they lose to us Sunday by less than a blowout. They will get some credit for winning at Memphis last night.
It’s a great credit to the angry midget that his squad is just a tad off center this year and they’re still projected to finish with our same record in conference and possibly five losses on the year.
Gotta like that even in a predictor that has our second loss by only two points, we beat the predictor by 1 point Sunday and 2 points tonight. If we stay ahead of the predictor (which already has us rated 4th in the country already) we could be the favorite going into Cincy in the season finale.