Future Realignment Thread

Football
5208

Personally I don’t think there will be a breakaway, as I’ve said before, simply because it takes 70-ish teams to provide enough matchups for all the content providers.

I’ve always thought that THREE surviving power conferences with roughly that amount of teams was most likely.

That said, in the unlikely event that a P2 breakaway were to occur, it wouldn’t make any sense for those conferences to keep parasitic brands that don’t add value, especially given that NO pro sports league has so many members diluting the pot.

The most likely outcome is three power conferences (B1G, SEC, and Big 12).

ACC, after losing its blue bloods and some mid bloods, will still exist, but with a strength significantly below the Big Three.

5209

Clearly espn wants the least amount of power conferences.
They want to cut cost and see a consolidation as a mean to get there.
espn’s intent was to kill the BIG12.
espn pundits over selling that only the p2 are cfp worthy is done with a clear intent/goal.
TNT’s college football return is a huge development.
Yormark has wanted to strengthened our basketball brand. Adding NC if doable ought to be automatic.
FSU, Clemson, NC, Duke, Miami and GT getting the same money as p2 is a no brainer.

1 Like
5210

I have no clue what you’re talking about.

The networks slobber all over the biggest matchups…and they get monster ratings!

70 schools…who is watching Wake Forest vs Baylor?

No…theyll still air those games, they will.just be a division below the 48 …or hopefully 60.school P3!

5211

People from WF and Baylor will watch if they have a shot at a playoff spot before the season begins.
Like all the G5 teams, even their fan bases don’t want to watch if they have no chance at a national championship before the season even kicks off.
We were there. Hard to grow fan bases when you are already shut out.

1 Like
5212

Still makes no sense why Stanford didn’t join their four Pac brethren and move to the XII instead of the wildly illogical Atlantic coast. The XII could’ve made it work with uneven league. Let’s hope they come to their senses eventually

5213

I dont think Stanford was asked. I certainly prefer Stanford over Utah, so i wish they would have been. Has Stanford voiced problems with Big 12 academics? Seems like Yormark was looking at schools who voiced interest in us like Arizona and Colorado did.

5214

Uh, if you truly don’t know, then you are pretty dense.

Here, I’ll spoon feed it to you.

Ask how many networks out there broadcast FBS football weekly, and how many games they broadcast.

Hint: There are many, and they broadcast DOZENS of games weekly.

You’re talking about numerous different networks, each broadcasting multiple games per week.

Then ask how many of those games a 34-48 team breakaway league would have broadcasted weekly.

Hint: no more than 15-22 or so weekly, owing to a few teams being idle each week.

That’s NOWHERE NEAR enough to fill all the slots and meet the demands of the content providers and viewers as it currently stands.

Not close.

That’s why you probably need a minimum of 70ish teams playing at the highest level.

That’s the only way to ensure that all the slots are filled with high level competition, and that all the content providers have enough matchups to fill them.

Don’t bet on there ever being fewer than three “power” conferences, given that. There must, out of necessity, be a third oower conference for that very reason.

The P2 may always make more money, but that simply doesn’t provide enough weekly matchups to fill all the slots. A third major conference is this needed.

That is why, while I can’t rule out a P2 breakaway, I wouldn’t bet on it either.

That said….

I think you may be literally the only person here who had “no idea” what I was talking about, and needed it spoon fed to you. It was likely intuitive for everyone else.

That should tell you something.

5215

WHY do you continue to think the non P2 schools would be prohibited from having TV coverage???

5216

I don’t.

When did I ever say that?

Hint: Never. Please try not to misunderstand or misquote me.

It’s not that they’ll be shut out.

The problem is that that’s not nearly enough programming content to satisfy the content providers based on what they are currently broadcasting…

They want more than the 15-22 games weekly that can be filled by a mere 34-48 teams.

To meet current demands they’ll need at least 70ish playing at the highest level to fill all their slots with the best content possible. They can do that now. They can’t with only 34-48 teams.

That’s the main reason why I don’t see a breakaway P2 as likely. That’s simply not enough content to fill all the slots currently broadcasted on a weekly basis with the best content possible.

At least one more conference worth of top level teams is needed for that.

A secondary factor weighing against any breakaway is the lack of agreement between the B1G and SEC.

They can’t even agree on a playoff format. The B1G wants 4-4-2-2-1-3. The other conferences, including the SEC, want 5-11. Good luck getting the P2 to come together on something even bigger and more earth shattering, given that they can’t even come together on that much.

5217

Poignant societal concerns and kitchen table discussions are banned while sawing sawdust goes 4,000 posts deep.

Just offering an observation.

3 Likes
5218

In case you haven’t noticed the big premiere matchups get better ratings …more interest…higher attendance than multiple “dud” matchups combined…

We are in the 70 P4 range now and there a lot of duds right now.

If you think 48 is too few upper tier teams…i can live with a 3 x20 = 60 but anything north of 60 is dud territory

5219

@derek78

Big 12 never asked Stanford to join the Big 12, and Stanford never applied to join the Big 12.

It was a mutually-agreed non discussion essentially, as neither benefited or met each others’ goals

1 Like
5220

I get what you’re saying, but you’re making it seem as if the Power Conferences are working together to get to your proposed “end game”

Every conference is looking out for themselves. Personally, I don’t see the SEC expanding beyond 18. There are only 2 programs left that really make sense expanding with, UNC & Virginia. - The SEC’s strength is in its brands and not in its numbers.

B1G kinda falls in the same category. They aren’t going to expand any more unless it’s Notre Dame and 1 other to even out the conference. I predict it’s Stanford as I just don’t really see any other program remaining that makes any real sense, and the B1G desperately needs more travel help in the west coast.

Big 12’s strength is in numbers because all their brands are relatively equal. Even the G5 schools (UH, Cincy, UCF) will eventually catchup to everyone else. I don’t see Big 12 expanding beyond 22 (FSU, Clemson, Miami, +3 More) - if the Big 12 can land FSU & Miami, they would essentially have a monopoly on the state of Florida with UCF already in the conference.

5221

Yeah but that doesn’t even come close to filling up all the college football broadcasting slots on any given weekend.

They can always fill up those other slots with lower level competition, but ratings and advertising revenues will suffer as a result.

The networks know that.

That’s why it is in their best interests to have more than 34-48 teams playing at the highest level.

It gives them more high level content to broadcast and make more money off of.

That is possible today with four P4 conferences.

If it becomes only two, the ratings for the rest of college football will drop in a way that will hurt advertising dollars on all those other slots.

That’s why I don’t ever see there being fewer than 70-ish teams playing at the top level, and that makes at least one more “power” conference a necessity.

Anyway, if the B1G and SEC can’t even agree on a playoff format, which they can’t, then don’t get too worried about them teaming up to break away.

And if they did…the prepare for UH to be left out. Our attendance, fan base, and TV viewership in football aren’t enough to add value to the P2.

So given that, stop discussing it.

You’ll jinx us.

5222

Im going to ask you AGAIN…

Why do you think the non 48 school schools will not get TV coverage?

They will still air their games but the premiere upper division of 48 schools will only play each other essentially they will no longer.play.duds who average 25k.

The 48 will be 60k + type of matchups

5223

Simple.

For the same reason that G6 football generally doesn’t get the same interest or ratings that P4 football gets, and for the same reason that FBS football gets way more interest and ratings than non-FBS football gets: demotion and inferiority.

Move one group of 34-48 up to a whole new higher level, and guess what happens?

The non-P2 will be labeled and regarded as an INFERIOR product.

Any product viewed as inferior obviously won’t attract the same viewership. Ratings for and interest in any college teams outside the P2 will plummet. It’ll be comparable to the difference in interest/ratings for MLB vs. the minor leagues. Ad revenue will suffer.

See, as it stands now, just under 70 teams can be marketed by the networks as the top echelon of college football, and TV slots for all of them become lucrative.

Break 34-48 away, and you can only market THOSE as top level competition, killing interest, ratings and ad revenues for the rest.

The networks know that.

So don’t look for them to get on board.

1 Like
5224

Both of you ought to look at why TNT is getting this media contract. espn has to cover the nfl. Is espn “over extended”?
Remember that the espn+ coverage has been amateur at best.
Could Warner Bros/TNT have an open door to be a major college football player? The fact that TNT no longer has the NBA should be an amazing opportunity for Yormark to make a deal and maybe get four major acc schools to join us with a great deal?
This was never to be expected. I thought anazon or apple would jump in but surely not a mega media player like TNT.

1 Like
5225

Why do you think they care about G6 level schools?

Instead of paying the likes of a Wake Forest or the two PAC leftovers $40 million a year for crap ratings and attendance…they can pay them $10 million which is more inline with their ratings

This is a simple ‘economy of scale’ move.

Casual fans want to see the best matchups and best atmospheres…THAT brings the big money advertisers and moster ratings.

No need to mix in a P2 vs a Dud matchup.

On TNT…if it’s to help the B12 secure bluebloods for a true 3 x20 P3…I can see that!

5226

There will be a P4 for a long while. Big 12 has good contracts now with ESPN, FOX and TNT. ESPN signed a deal with the ACC in February that goes to 2036. Most everyone seems reasonably satisfied with the FB playoff situation as far as seeding goes. 10 years from now there may be a concern, but not now.

5227

You’re right and wrong about the significance of casual fans

Truthfully, there are about 10 schools in all of CFB that can truly grab casual fans

Every other school relies on both alumni and conference affiliation

1 Like