Honest Thoughts
Disclaimer: This is in the context of national title contention.
We are still a top 10 team, and elite overall. Saying we are “not as good” in certain areas does not mean we are bad. Being ranked 29th out of 368 is still elite, but that removes the context. This is about whether we are positioned to win a national title vs other elite, and how we compare to the standard at Houston.
Defense
The defense is flawed, and at this point in the season, it likely will not be fully fixed.
In previous years, the identity was simple:
We took away your best scorers. If you beat Houston, it is because a random role player had a career night. one season I even tracked games top scorers and was noting how we kept them to lines like 1–11, 3–19, 2–11.
This year is different.
Now it feels like:
We are not stopping your top scorer if they are elite, they will get theirs. We will shut down everything else. In 90% of games, one or 2 player is not enough to beat us.
That is a real shift.
Before, elite scorers struggled and you needed the unexpected.
Now, we shut down non-elite players, but national title contenders have elite scorers. That is the concern.
Some thoughts that would have gotten pushback two weeks ago that ill say now about our defense (feel free to still attack me):
- Emanuel Sharp is a great defender, but he is the weakest “best defensive guard” we have had. Every previous team had at least one guard better defensively than Sharp is right now.
- Kingston is not a great defender in terms of ball pressure and making players uncomfortable, which is what defines elite defense in our system. Yes, he gets steals, but that is not the same thing.
- Lack of true depth is limiting how we use JoJo. Yes, foul trouble matters, but the bigger issue is we are managing his fouls instead of maximizing him.
- Example: Last year, JoJo would have guarded Joshua Jefferson all game and likely shut him down.
- This year, we avoided that matchup to protect him from fouls and only used it late. That is a major shift. We let Jefferson feast on cenac early
Offense
This is where I might lose some people.
Within the context of Houston basketball, this is the best offense under Sampson, and it still has room to grow.
Important context:
Houston is defense-first. That is our identity. (we will never be a crazy offense under sampson, defense is what carries us)
Without that context:
- Holding Arizona to 73 is solid
- Scoring 66 is not great
With Houston context:
- Last year, we held Arizona to 58 and 64
- We scored 62 and 72, both inflated by late free throws
Nobody complained about scoring 62 because the defense carried. this was a team that almost won the Title. We’ve never been the 100points a night team
If we had won (added late free throws) this year, the offensive output would look similar to what we have accepted from our top teams in the past.
There are still levels this offense can reach:
- There is more to get from the bench (McCarty, Mercy)
- Uzan took over both Arizona games last year and has taken a backseat this year
Hot take:
I do not like Kingston being the primary option in late-game situations.
It should be Uzan or Sharp (The Seniors), unless Kingston is clearly the hot hand that game. who can shoot 3s more comfortably
- The Texas Tech game-winner worked, but if you rewatch it, he forced the ball to someone else and got the ball back by chance and shot it because of the shot clock. he isnt a natural 3 threat, our other 2 guards are
- Recently, he has been forcing tough end of game shots and tripping or badly missing while Uzan and Sharp are on the floor, even in moments where Uzan had just hit shots
We have better shooting options in those situations.
Rebounding
Its hard to notice the positive in losses but quietly, this has been improving vastly , even during the losing stretch.
- Cenac, who was already a strong defensive rebounder, is starting to impact the offensive glass
- Overall effort and production are trending upward
Where Do We Go From Here?
In the context of national title contention:
- The defense likely will not improve enough to consistently shut down elite scorers
- The limitations we are seeing are physical and structural, sharp and uzan arent growing longer wing spans
That means the path forward is:
- Offensive growth
- Continued improvement in rebounding
Within Houston standards:
- Rebounding is trending solid
- Offense is already good, with room to grow
But being honest:
Right now, we are not a national title team.
That said, there is still time.
There is still upside.
And there is still a real path to getting there.
Cheers.
