Boise State goes down. Navy lost one. What happens if Navy loses two more? Can we still pull of an AAC championship and a NY6 bowl berth?
We’ll need Western Michigan to lose too (what a world)
I doubt Navy loses two more but you make it sound like they are the only one above us anyway. If Tulsa beats Memphis and Navy, we would lose any three-way tiebreaker to them because they would have a better division record which comes before being ranked. If Tulsa beats Memphis but loses to Navy, then our only hope would be SMU beating Navy.
Our best hope is Memphis beating Tulsa and Tulsa beating Navy but Tulsa is up 15 on Navy with 3 minutes left in the 3rd.
We don’t necessarily need navy to lose 2 more, there are several possibilities of us winning our division. I think the most likely thing will be a 3-way tie between Navy, Tulsa, and UH. If Navy has the worst winning percentage, we will have the head to head win against Tulsa and would be in.
We would still need to win the conference championship game and have Westetn Kentucky (or whoever it is) slip up somewhere. A
You are forgetting we would have to beat Louisville in that scenario as well.
I’m assuming we win out.
It would be very difficult and a lot of things have to bounce our way. First off, Navy is 4-1 in conference and have only Tulsa and SMU left and would have to lose at least one of those.
Tulsa is 2-1 and appears on the way to 3-1 leading Memphis 52-30 in the 4thd quarter. Tulsa has to lose another game and they just have to play East Carolina (1-3), Navy (4-1), UCF (2-2), and Cincy (1-4). Of that group, Navy looks like the best bet to beat them, but that would mean SMU would have to beat Navy if .
Memphis is 2-1, but looks like they are going to lose to Tulsa and go to 2-2. If they do lose to Tulsa and we win out, we would eliminate the Tigers.
SMU is 2-2 and have already lost to Tulsa. The ponies still have to play Memphis,ECU, USF, and Navy. We need USF to beat SMU. It doesn’t matter to us who wins the East and USF and Temple are both 4-1 in conference and USF has a 7-2 overall record and if they win out, they could be a top 20 to 25 team.
In a two way tie, we lose to Navy and SMU, but beat Tulsa. So the only 2 way tie we can win is against Tulsa. In a 3 way tie with Navy, and Tulsa, we would all have 2 losses and no one would have beaten the other 2 if Tulsa beats Navy.
It looks like the best we can reasonably hope for is for a SMU and Tulsa to lose to someone and Tulsa and SMU beat Navy. I don’t know; but I think we don’t have much of a real chance of winning the West; but sometimes fat cows drop dead.
Of course that would only put us in the AAC championship game and we would have to win it. We also have to be the highest ranked G5 champ, so, we have to beat Louisville or we would drop out of contention.
We can’t win any 3-way ties if we all end up with 2 losses; our loss to SMU ended that. 2nd tiebreaker is record in the division which Navy (and possibly Tulsa) would only have 1 loss in the division while we have 2.
Only way we can win the division now is for 4 things to happen:
- Houston beats Tulane & @Memphis
- Navy loses 2 of 3 games vs Tulsa, @ECU, and/or @SMU
- Tulsa loses 1 of 4 games vs ECU, @Navy, @UCF, or vs Cincy
- SMU loses 1 of 4 games vs Memphis, @ECU, vs USF or vs Navy
We can still host if the above happens and the following:
- We beat Louisville
- USF loses 1 of 3 games @Memphis, @SMU, or UCF
- Temple loses 1 of 3 games @UCONN, @Tulane, or ECU
I think the first divisional tiebreaker is head to head but I think the second divisional tiebreaker is overall record. If Tulsa beats Navy but loses any other game AND we won out, we would be the only two loss team. A loss by Western Kentucky would help as well.
Unfortunately, for us, it goes:
- Conference record
- Head to Head
- divisional record
- record against next best divisional opponent
- record against common non-division opponents
- overall record
- CFP ranking
- coin toss
We’d be eliminated on divisional record.
Is a New Year’s Six bowl still possible?
Uhhh … NOPE!!! … we just have awoken from a four week coma and someone wants to know if we can face Mohammed Ali in a champions bout …
Why sowtenly … we’ll just jump outa bed do ah few push ups and we’re ready to face ole sting like a butterfly and float like ah bee … or … is it the other way around … we are still awakening from that coma …
He asked if it’s possible, not if it’s likely.
It is possible. The Coogs aren’t mathematically eliminated from a conference championship and are not that far behind the highest ranked G5 team in the voting.
If this off week helps heal physical and mental wounds as well as Bowser being back AND we upset Louisville, UH will have just as good a resume for the year as any other team competing in the NY6 bowls.
FYI, Navy’s game against ECU was postponed at the time due to the hurricane.
Anyone knows if it has been rescheduled?
Would we? It’s questionable if Western Michigan would be higher ranked given their competition. It is the CFP rankings not AP or Coaches I believe.
I asked this on another thread, but is there anything about a G5 team’s standing in the polls? With the BCS a non-BCS team had to be ranked at least No. 12 to qualify for a BCS bowl.
Nope it is the highest ranked G5 CC, even if they are #25.
If no team is ranked, then the committee decides. Based on what is unclear.
Taken from NTXCoog on the other site:
“The committee will rank 25 teams. If no champion of a non-contract conference [i.e. “G5”] is among that group, then the committee will conduct an additional process to identify the top-ranked champion of those conference champions.”
That rule was based on there only being 5 major bowls. It wouldn’t have been fair to give an automatic bid to a 20th ranked team in a much weaker conference over a team that played a much tougher schedule and finished ranked 10th. They did add in one stipulation that if the highest ranked non-AQ was ranked as low as 16th and any AQ champion was ranked lower than that, the non-AQ champion received as automatic bid as well.
People also leave out that in the new standard, multiple G5 champions can be invited to NY6 bowls. So if two G5 champions finished in the top 10 but not the top 4, the highest ranked one would get an automatic bid but the other would likely get an at-large bid.
As much as the bowls love P5 schools, they wouldn’t extend an invite to a 14th ranked, 3rd place, 3 loss, P5 school over a second undefeated, 10th ranked G5 school. That would just bring more hearings in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee.
If we win out, by some luck Navy loses twice more and we win our conference championship, chances are we would have passed up Western Michigan. Right now we are only 9 spots behind in the AP and 8 spots behind in the Coaches Poll. A win over Louisville would jump us a lot of spots.
As one non-BCS coach once remarked at the beginning of the BCS, in order for a non-BCS team to be considered for a BCS bowl “they had to be unbeaten, untied, and unscored upon”. That loosened up a bit later.
San Diego State might get the New Year’s 6 game.