If UH finishes 11-1 with that kind of schedule, they’re almost certainly in. If UH finishes 10-2, you’re probably right. There will another two-loss team with a high quality win that crowds UH out.
BYU this year is a good example of team that got haunted by its schedule and no high quality win. BYU finished 11-1 in the regular season, but lost its CCG. Alabama finished 10-2 in the regular season, and also lost its CCG. Alabama had an SEC schedule and a high quality win over Georgia. The B1G/SEC boost and the high quality win gave Alabama the playoff spot over BYU.
If BYU had a win over Notre Dame or Miami instead of Stanford, BYU would likely be in the playoffs while Alabama watches from home.