Many are saying that Navy has to lose two games, but that is technically not true. There are at least two paths to the AAC Championship game. All these involve us winning out in-conference at the minimum. Here are the rules:
In the event that two teams are tied, head-to head competition would break the tie. If the two teams did not play, division record will be used to determine the divisional champion.
However, if three or more teams are tied, the following tiebreakers are used to determine the divisional champion:
Head-to-head (best record in games among the tied teams).
Record in games played within the division.
Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in all Conference games, both divisional and non-divisional).
Record against the next highest placed team in the division (based on record in divisional games).
Record against common non-divisional opponents.
Best overall winning percentage in all games.
Highest CFP ranking following the last weekend of regular-season games.
- Navy loses two (they still have to play Memphis and @USF, so real possibility here).
- Navy loses to Memphis, Memphis wins all other games other than UH, and we beat Memphis creating a three-way tie. Then all things being equal it goes to CFP ranking, in which there is a real possibility of us being the highest ranked.
To host, we need USF to lose (they play @Memphis). The site of the Championship Game is the home stadium of the division champion with the best overall conference record. In the event that the two division champions are tied, then the head-to-head record shall be used as the tiebreaker. If the two teams did not play, overall record is used to determine hosting. If the two remain tied after that tiebreaker, then the team with the highest CFP ranking following the last regular-season game hosts.