It’s stretch analysis, hoping you don’t look into it and find out the truth.
The energy in “renewable energy” is electricity. Yes, gas is more energy dense than the electricity stored in a battery. However, transporting that gas and getting it into the tank to be used is costly, more costly than transporting electricity to an outlet to charge a battery. The low efficiency of ICE vehicles makes the cost per mile much higher for ICE vehicles vs EVs and its not even remotely close.
There’s a reason oil and gas suppliers in production and midstream use electric driven motors to transport their liquids whenever possible. Electric motors, as I have said before, are wildly more efficient than ICE.
To quickly sum up:
Transporting electricity is more efficient than transporting gasoline.
Using electricity to run a vehicle is more efficient than gasoline.
Combine those two and ICE is even further behind cost wise, not ahead or closer.
Natural gas isn’t very dense either, so it’s better to use it to generate electricity and use that to power EVs. Same with coal, I don’t see many coal powered cars. Only oil, which you have to extract transport then boil/refine then transport again powers cars.
So I’d expect Iranian oil exports to be interrupted. Google tells me they provide about 4.5% of global oil. Not a trivial amount.
Secondly, depends on if the navy can degrade the Iranian navy enough to keep the strait open. That’s probably the bigger potential impact.
Too early to call how much the production and shipping will be impacted, but I think it’s safe to say it’ll spike. Some headlines mentioning
$100/barrel ? Last time we “totally destroyed their nuclear program” , looks like it only spiked to $75 ???
It hit close to $80 but that was from a starting point of ~$60. It also deescalated quickly (likely because not nearly as much damage was done as said) and this one is looking much different.
Speaking of, remember when posters said they hardly see any EVs, my local little league had its opening day ( I live by the main field) and look at the sampling of cars, lots of EVs not just the hated Teslas either.
CVX & XOM have had big price jumps over the last few weeks. I don’t think they’ll move much. It seems like all the tech bros bailed outta tech and ran to energy. I’m actually looking at some profit taking. Lot of XOM was purchased in 2020 when the dividend was 10%+ and the price was 32. Now at 157.
Just waiting to see if the Iranians have the wherewithal to close the Staights. If they do, oil may bump to 100 briefly.
Read a piece how DJT has taken Mao’s strategy of encircling. Eliminating strategic allies like Iran, Venezuela hurts the CCP greatly
Aluminum could have as big, if not bigger, jump than oil
