Right now, Fresno would be a 6-7 point favorite over Houston if you look at the most accurate predictive power ratings (Dokter Entropy, Sagarin, Pigskin Index, FPI). In the Massey Composite, the average poll as Fresno 18th and Houston 32nd.
And the Committee thinks Fresno is better than Houston, obviously.
So let’s look at the schedules, and assume both Houston and Fresno win out.
Houston has Temple (5-3), Memphis (4-4) and UCF (7-0) as its toughest remaining games. Combined 15-7.
Fresno has Boise St (6-2), San Diego St (6-2) and Utah St (7-1). Combined 19-5.
If we both win out, there’s a good chance the final win over UCF will not be enough to save the day.
We need Fresno to lose before I’d feel comfortable about UH controlling its own destiny.
Even then, Utah St is ranked ahead of us by most polls and would be favored by 3 over Houston according to the predictive power ratings. I do think a win over 11-0 UCF would be enough to close that gap.
That’s another thing. We need UCF to be 11-0 in that title game. We need to win that game in Orlando in order to surpass a 1-loss MWC champ. Should Temple beat UCF this week and win the East, we are screwed.
But you will have to consider that #12 ranking. If UH beats UCF, UCF will not fall out of the top 25 with one lost. That means UH will have beaten a ranked team. Can Fresno State say that? The CFP committee weighs a lot on ranked teams.
I still think OUR best bet moving forward is to root for the scenario where UCF crashes the party and breaks through. It will turn college football upside down, give the American the respect it deserves, and could pave the way for future Cougar playoff apoearances.
Sorry guys, I’m thinking big picture…the fact we are 7-1 and have the #1 offense and are NOT RANKED should tell you all you need to know. I suggest all AAC fans get behind UCF…we need as many supporters as we can get.
You’re right, I should’ve been more precise. I think the chances of Fresno running the table are small. I also think the chances of UCF losing are even smaller.
Even if Fresno does run the table, our win over an undefeated and top-10 ranked UCF would likely be significantly better than any win they’d have.
But all of this is barely-founded speculation, and really not worth all of the teeth-gnashing this early.
For comparison, everyone should have a look at the week-by-week CFP rankings in 2015.