Game Thought and Future outlook
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This is odd to say after a loss, IMO This is probably going to be the best offense we’ve seen under Coach Sampson. While that may sound bold, it’s worth noting that we aren’t an offensive powerhouse, the bar isn’t some crazy standard. This offense, though still flawed, is going to be the most productive we’ve had. People need to recognize just how strong Auburn’s defense is—elite and ranked top 5 nationally. Comparing to past seasons, let’s remember that JUST last year we were having 8-minute scoring droughts even against teams like Texas State, a terrible team early in the season. Against a non-top 70 defense (there are 368 teams), we could probably hit 100+ points if we kept our rotation players in.
We now have multiple players who can hit open shots. I’m confident in J’Wan scoring, as long as he’s not up against an elite shot-blocker 4 (which is rare). Jojo and Francis can rack up offensive rebounds and putbacks points, especially against teams with less-than-stellar defenses. -
However, if we’re discussing winning a national title, we need to assess our offense against the elite defenses. Against top defenses, we’re offensively thin: LJ, J’Wan, and Uzan are our only real scoring options, and even then, Cryer is a bit hesitant. It’s disappointing that Sharp isn’t in this group, but he has shown he can’t create with a good defender that can stick to him.
Ramon plays too cautiously; despite his progress, as a senior its nit enough, he shouldn’t be passing up semi-open 3s when almost all shots are contested. Mylik, on the other hand, just lacks the skill set.
The Hope: Sharp has more potential to show (hopefully). We need Mercy to earn rotation minutes, and though Arceneaux didn’t perform well this game, he has a mix of skill and fearlessness that just needs more repetition to develop fully and understand his game.
If we’re serious about contending for a title, Mercy needs to be in the rotation at some point since he’s our best option to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line. and adds another to the scoring option on top defenses.
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From what I’ve seen, J’Wan likely won’t be shooting this year either. Auburn dared him, and he didn’t even consider it—though that’s okay.
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I’m not overreacting to Pettiford’s scoring; much of it happened after we got into foul trouble. As a freshman, it was his first game he was asked to score, so we didn’t have a full scouting report on him. I was, however, a bit disappointed in Mylik’s defense, since that is his calling card.
- Some fans have criticized our defense overall, but I don’t think it was as bad as some of the reactions. Defensive depth was the issue. When Uzan, Tugler, and J’Wan got into foul trouble, Broome scored easily in the post, and we couldn’t contain Pettiford, who we had mostly shut down earlier- we had contained them till then. Francis clearly wasn’t at 100%, Coach Sampson seemed more comfortable with J’Wan and Tugler in foul trouble than with Francis. It’s also worth noting that Francis had fouls to give in the end, which we could have used to stay more physical, but we let up.
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A key factor in our loss was poor offensive execution at the end of the game; things looked uncoordinated. The Sharp-J’Wan pick-and-roll turnover was a glaringly bad, and whatever play we tried to run for LJ seemed so uncoordinated.
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we are deep in role players, we aren’t deep in impact players. I’m still extremely high on this team but based on how we looked the 1st 2 games, If we lose even 1 of LJ, Uzan, JoJo, Francis, or Jwan for the significant games id have to drastically change how Id project the season
Improvement Areas:
- Offensive Movement: When Uzan was on the bench, the offense stagnated, with players holding the ball, and then not particularly doing anything with it. We need more dynamic ball movement, and play making even when Uzan isn’t on the floor.
- Sharp’s Development: Sharp has been disappointing so far, in comparison to the expectations, showing nothing off the dribble. A strong defender can take him out entirely; he needs to show he is more than that.
- Building Depth: Mercy must improve enough to enter the rotation he is part of this teams ceiling, and we need to continue building Terrance’s confidence and giving him reps.
- Lath’s Role: We need to develop Lath to the point where he can play a few first-half minutes without a significant drop-off in quality even against elite teams (save some early fould for the core). Our defensive potential is high if we can avoid letting up due to foul trouble, We will be special if we can get to end of games vs elite teams in close games and J’wan, Francis and JoJo are still being extremely physically because they arent worried about fouls (As we are now, and how we play i cant imagine a physical close game without being in foul trouble with the bigs). If Lath reaches a defensive level comparable to Breaon’s physicality/style—pushing opponents out of position, instead of trying to blocking—we’ll reach our defensive potential.
- Perimeter Physicality: Our perimeter defenders need to be more physical. When we’re not in foul trouble, we’re elite at limiting quality shots. But to be truly makes us disruptive and elite is that shake opponents with an intense defensive presence that feels harassing, relentless and physical wares them down. I don’t think we are “punching teams in the mouth” like we traditionally down, more so that we are extremely difficult puzzle to solve.
Despite the loss, I still feel confident saying this is our best team under Sampson (if everyone stays healthy). It could be our best offense, and our rebounding held up even against a much larger opponent. The defense isnt as strong as I’d hoped— which i thought was possibly historic-level, which it still can be if we address issues with physicality and big-man depth, but it’ll still be an above average Sampson defense at worst (which is still elite).
It’s hard to see in a loss, seeing how we’ve never played an opponent this good this early in the season. This is the best we’ve ever looked this early in the season. (with the added context of auburn is at worst a top 10 team)
