Realignment speculation

I agree a 64 team P4 would very likely force a lot of the current P5 bottom feeders out, and bring in some top G5 programs like UH/UCF/USF. It will all come down to politics and media pressure.

16 team conferences, are actually easier to manage from a scheduling point than 14 team conferences. If you are going to have a conference where round robin is not possible, 12 or 16 is the way to go.

A 12 team conference will allow for a lot more frequent cross-divisional match-ups. So in that respect it’s better than a 16 team conference.

Personally I really like the round robin league schedule, however a 12 team Big 12 would be the next best option. Not a fan of 14 team conferences, and not too big on 16 team conferences either.

Agreed. 4 conferences of 16 teams is very unlikely. Adding schools for the sake of reaching 16 members seems questionable to me. There has never been a uniform number of teams in the current P5.

the networks need a minimum of 64 teams to fill their game inventory and the power conferences need 65 to maintain their 50% vote out of the 130 of the FBS so if the B12 (10 teams) collapses then the other 4 conferences will need to add 10 teams, SEC 2, ACC 2, BIG 2, and PAC 4. The big question is what happens to the B12 schools. My opinion is:

OU and OSU go to SEC
UT and KU to to BIG
UConn and Iowa St to ACC
UH, TT, K State, and U of New Mexico go to PAC

TCU, Baylor, West Virginia go to AAC
TCU and BU are tier 2 research universities and WVU burned it’s bridges to with the BE/AAC in the way they left to join the B12.

Baylor


I’m not sure that 64 is some kinda magic number for the networks. Would having 60 instead really change the calculus?

To your next point around having >50%, what happens when another couple teams join FBS? Would P5 conferences have to add someone every time that happens? Seems unlikely.

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The number 64 is important to the tv people because it gives them enough “quality games” to fill out their “premium programing”. 60 teams would leave them around 35 - 40 games short. The number 65 is important to the power conferences because the 65 schools (64 p5 and ND) gives them enough votes to do what they want. It the system goes to p4 -g6 then haveing 50% of school votes will be critical because they will no longer have 50% of the conference votes.

The P5 votes count double, so they always have 2/3 of the vote.

Then why wouldn’t the networks demand 70 teams to get even more? I’m just not sure why 64 is the magic number.

I get your 50% point. I’m just asking what happens when 2 more schools become FBS. They no longer have 50%. That’s a moving target.

It basically depends on what other conferences do. Rumors out there that the B1G eventually wants to go to 20, but that was before the ACC locked in for an extended contract (UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech were on their radar). Possible they still do it in stages; goal is to get to 2-10 team divisions with original 10 on one side and newer 10 on other. Would give tons of content for the B1G Network and any T1/T2 contract.

If something like that happens, likely others could respond
I’ve heard 4 20-Team conferences thrown around at times
although it’s probably decades before anything like that happens. Would basically be 8 10-team conferences with agreements on Championship games.

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The current scheduling matrix requires 64 conference teams and ND. When the broadcasters change the matrix the number of teams needed will change.

Because it’s not nearly enough to keep the athletic department afloat indefinitely. Have you seen the subsidy the university provides for athletics? That’s not going to continue forever; it probably won’t continue past the next round of realignment. If we averaged 5k more fans per game, we’re talking about covering 4% of the subsidy. And I’m surprised that you would say we’re never getting into a P5. Really? You know how realignment is going to shake out in 3-5 years? It’s virtually a certainty that it will happen, and the conference most likely to be hit is the same one that’s been burned by 33% of its original 1995 members. That means UH will be well-positioned. No one can say just how it’ll play out, but a VHR university in a top 10 media market with excellent facilities and winning programs would clearly have a shot at being invited to a P5. Better hope so. The athletic department, or at least the football program, can’t sustain itself in its present situation.

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Interesting article. No mention that Texas Tech and Oklahoma State were offered
in fact, it’s said that Oklahoma State wasn’t offered due to academic fit which is why Oklahoma probably couldn’t join. Says that they were looking at adding Colorado, A&M, Texas, and Oklahoma.

https://247sports.com/college/utah/Article/The-Right-Fit-An-Oral-History-of-How-Utah-Joined-the-Pac-12-119713965/

He had a list of teams there, and we were on a good list. Of course, they all had to be research institutions. It was the culture of the conference.

Scott: The focus was very much on academic profile and trajectory and Utah at the time was ascendant academically. Their rankings were improving, the growth areas of the university seemed to be increasing the amount of research dollars they were attracting every year. They were really considered a preeminent research institution in the West. So we spent a lot of time trying to understand that as well as focusing on the athletic heritage, pedigree, which was obvious.

We were looking at facilities, talking about future plans and objectives and philosophy, and we came to the determination that [Utah] would be a really good fit culturally. They were a school that had a history of being very successful despite having less resources than traditional big conference schools. And we became excited about the possibility of being a good fit early on, but also becoming a strong member of the conference with the additional resources, exposure and prestige that would come being a part of the Pac-12.

https://247sports.com/college/utah/Article/The-missing-pieces-Additional-quotes-from-the-decision-makers-on-Pac-12-expansion-119725885/

"One of the wonderful things about Chris Hill and about so many of the great athletics supporters at the University of Utah is I think some of the things I was thinking about (from an academic standpoint) were on their mind as well. Let me elaborate what that is: I was interested in what effect this would have on the academic side or the perception of the academic side of the institution. The University of Utah was a very strong athletic program and a very strong academic program and really rising in both. I didn’t want to put us in a position where we would be viewed as just an athletic school. That’s why my pitch to the Pac-12 presidents and my interest in the Pac-12 was that these were schools that we wanted to be identified with. We looked like these great research universities. We are one of these great research universities. We ought to be in the same room with them and creating the national perception that that’s the case was important, but so was creating the internal perception. Our competition academically was the same as it should be athletically. It’s UCLA and Washington and all of these other great schools.

So, I called friends at Arizona and Arizona State and asked about when they went into the Pac-8. They told me a couple of interesting things. Arizona hasn’t won a football title since they went into the Pac-10. It’s 40 years later, but the professors I talked to all had a perspective to them. They all said to a person that it was the best thing academically that ever happened to the university. Because they were now viewed with the University of Washington, which gets the second most amount of research money as any school in the nation; Berkeley, which by most accounts is the number one public university in the nation, UCLA, Stanford, USC
 To be mentioned in the same breath of those universities upped everyone’s perception both internally and externally. It gave them something to strive for, so when they thought of themselves, they thought, “We work to be like Berkeley, not like a school with considerably less academic heft.”

From my perspective, that was pretty powerful and turned out to be pretty true. It raised everybody’s academic sights. It raised externally everyone’s perception of the university, but internally who we thought we were and what we thought of ourselves. So, for me that was very important."

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Cool article. I think Larry Scott viewed UT-Austin as the prize. In the summer of 2010, LHN was still in the development stage and no deal had been announced. Bill Powers and DeLoss Dodds were open to going to the PAC 10 if they could retain their tier 3 rights for one football game and some basketball games. Larry Scott and the PAC 10 presidents weren’t on-board with this. So the administration at UT-Austin basically said “Ok, we’ll just stay in the Big 12.” And that’s when the deal was officially dead. The PAC 10 wasn’t going to add more schools from the Big 12 (after Colorado) unless UT was part of the deal.

Five years later, I listened to an interview with Chip Brown on The Audible podcast who said the deal fell through because the UT Administrators knew A&M was willing to wait (with an invite to the SEC in their back pocket) for UT to announce they were going to the PAC 10 first. And thus, UT would be blamed for breaking up the Big 12 and the rivalry with A&M. I, for one, don’t buy that as a deal breaker in itself. I think UT would have ok seperating from A&M if they could launch their own network as a member of the PAC 10. But their own network wouldn’t have been allowed in the PAC 10.

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UT and ND belong in their own conference
preferably located in HELL !!!

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INDEED!
That is the reason that both should be Independent - no conference having to tolerate their BS at all.
And then, have a hard time filling out a schedule - that would end up being their “Hell”!

Lord knows I understand the sentiment. But ND is not a true independent. They contractually have to play 5 ACC opponents ever year.

Reality is the that is they played each other 12 times a year, that NBC and/or ESPN would pay them for the TV rights !!!

All I can gurantee is that I would NEVER see any of those games !!

Has nothing to do with them being an “independent”
>Do you think the ACC gets any of the ND TV money ?

Yah. All of the ND away games against ACC opponents are included under the ACC tv contract.

IS that part of the ND TV contract ??

My guess is that ND gets ALL of their TV money and SOME of the ACC TV monies !!