We all know that rating recruits is imperfect, but in the
aggregate it can tell you the base talent level a team has or another way of
putting it - the foundation a coach has to build on.
With that in mind I have been looking over historical
rankings for the entire FBS, the AAC, and UH. I also specifically looked at
Boise St. and TCU before and during their non-AQ runs that have led to their
national respect and TCU’s eventual Big 12 invite.
Over the last five years UH’s 247 composite recruiting class
rankings have averaged a national ranking of 64. Take that with a grain of salt
as CTH’s first class was abnormally low at 92, but he had some serious talent
transfer in over the last two seasons and that doesn’t count towards those
rankings.
That puts us as essentially an average team in the FBS
(despite marketing disadvantages created by the “P5” myth). What I find
particularly interesting about that is leading up to their own break through
years, and including the first class that signed directly after their big bowl
games, Boise St. and TCU averaged 77.6 and 58.4 respectively. That puts us
solidly in their company.
One thing I will note here is that after and 11-2 season in
2006 the spring 2007 class for TCU was 57 and after finishing 13-0 in 2006
Boise’s same class was 79.
After UH’s 13-1 2015 run their spring 2016 class was ranked
40.
I would say all these things bode well for UH. The Coogs
started off with similar talent, but seems to be able to better recruit off of
similar success.
Following those break out year over the last decade Boise
and TCU have averaged 11.3 and 10 wins per season. That is with a horrible 4-8
season mixed in for TCU as they adjusted to Big 12 play.
I think all Coog fans would love to mimic such success and
the data seems to indicate that is not only within reach, but something the
scarlet and white should be able to surpass.
Now to look at this upcoming year of recruiting specifically,
we are gathering a very good group of young men. Many I personally think, will
continue to be ranked higher than they currently are. This Cougar class has
guys like Gooden who wasn’t even rated by anyone until he committed to UH. He
is still only rated by one service (I believe) and so he is essentially a low
three star by default. Looking at the numbers some have posted such as his
speed combined with his 200+ lb weight, I think he will make a huge jump in
ratings.
There are other commits that I see this happening with as
well, but for conjecture I will assume there are NO changes to ratings.
The UH class currently has a point total on the 247
composite just over 166. Adding four players in positions we are still
recruiting, that have us as favorites. We get to 175. This would be good enough
for first in the AAC almost every year and about 50-55 nationally.
For reference Northwester seems to ALWAYS be in that range
in national ranking.
Over their last nine classes TCU has averaged a ranking of
42.1 and Boise has 68.78.
Once again it looks like we are sitting pretty to repeat
their success even when not counting the super talent transferring in or the
fact that many of our current recruits will be rated higher come signing day.
Both those programs lacked certain recruiting advantages that
we have, TCU eventually got a conference name that helped with recruiting, but
it still seems reasonable that we could out do their success curve.
Go Coogs!