SP+ Week 8.....updated w/ Week 9, 10

Here’s this week’s rankings:

13 Cincinnati
52 Texas Tech
53 SMU
61 UCF
69 Houston
73 Tulsa
76 Memphis
92 ECU
93 Tulane
105 Temple
110 USF
116 Navy
125 Rice
129 UConn

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I still can’t believe UCONN ruined our perfect season in 2015… Good Lord they suck.

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They didn’t… Herman and Apple Boy did.


I agree… the offensive game plan and adjustments were terrible that game.

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10 Cincinnati
47 SMU
56 UCF
63 Houston
65 Texas Tech
75 Memphis
85 Tulsa
90 ECU
93 Tulane
109 USF
110 Temple
111 Navy
125 Rice
129 UConn

So losing to UH actually improved SMU’s ranking?


Here are some other rankings from the list to give you a “flavor” of how good this system is:

22 North Carolina (4-4)
25 Miami (4-4)
27 Texas (4-4)
28 Wake Forest (8-0)
58 Georgia Tech (3-5)
60 TCU (3-5)
61 Indiana (2-6)


The more this season and this particular ranking metric plays out, the more this ranking approach seems to be out of sorts.

Here’s week 10:



The computer models are broken and cannot seem to handle:

Memphis beating Miss St
Miss St beating Texas A&M and Kentucky
Florida hanging tough with Bama and Kentucky and then getting blown out by South Carolina
Boise St beating BYU and hanging with Ok State but losing to UCF, Nevada, and Air Force

It’s mayhem right now in CFB. Show up on Saturday or you could lose to anyone.

His metrics are usually pretty good. It makes me wonder if there is an error in them this year. Either a change in the formula with unintended consequences or an actual bug, like a cell not transferring right.

Looks like your Week 10 results aren’t updated. They’re the exact same as what you posted a week ago. :wink:

Fixed it. Thanks

Early bird gets the worm, too early bird gets eaten by coyotes.

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These are now really hard to find…don’t know why.

Week 10:

8 Cincinnati
42 SMU
47 Houston
54 UCF
62 Texas Tech
71 Memphis
81 Tulsa
83 ECU
92 Tulane
110 USF
114 Temple
115 Navy
125 Rice
128 UConn

Week 11:

6 Cincinnati
33 SMU
38 Houston
59 Texas Tech
62 UCF
71 Memphis
79 Tulsa
80 ECU
93 Tulane
110 USF
112 Navy
115 Temple
127 Rice
128 UConn

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Week 12:

7 Cincinnati
38 Houston
50 SMU
59 UCF
60 Texas Tech
68 Tulsa
76 Memphis
78 ECU
89 Tulane
110 Navy
112 USF
119 Temple
127 Rice
128 UConn

There is higher math going on here than my level of understanding.

We move up from #47 to #38 for beating #115 Temple, but don’t move up at all for beating #76 Memphis.

Similarly, Cincy moves up from #8 to #6 after beating #110 USF, but falls from #6 to #7 after beating #50 SMU.

This is CFP math…


Bill Conelly (@ESPN_BillC) devised the current SP+ rankings and he does tweak the algorithm from time to time, but I’ve not ever known him to tweak it mid-season. He used to have a podcast called “Podcast ain’t played nobody” that he would run down the SP+ every week. He’s not doing this podcast anymore and I’m not sure he has replaced it was something else, but it was excellent while it lasted.

He is a big supporter of the G5 and often talks about the unfairness of how they are penalized for not playing strong teams, but P5s that do the same are not penalized. He would often call out G5 wins over P5 teams in advance and is as close to an objective statistical view of team rankings as I’ve seen.

He switched work from SBNation to ESPN a couple of years ago, so maybe his statistical model has changed? I always thought it was fair given how he described it working.

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Week 13:

5 Cincinnati
29 Houston
49 SMU
53 Texas Tech
64 Tulsa
67 UCF
76 Memphis
77 ECU
90 Tulane
105 Navy
110 USF
120 Temple
127 Rice
129 UConn

Big move up for the Coogs. That win against #129 UConn paying off big time! :wink: