The fuzzy math of the NCAA Transfer Portal

A lot of these kids will end up going to JUCO for a year, but I wish more kids would start looking at programs where they’ll get sure playing time rather than riding the bench for 3-4 years.

The portal has become an open marketplace struggling with an extremely basic issue: too much supply, limited demand. At just the Power 5 level, more than 450 players have entered the portal, according to 247Sports’ transfer portal tracker. And at the moment, 240 of them are uncommitted. Including Group of 5 players, the total available is far more than 400.

A more telling reality check from this portal era: Of the more than 450 looking to leave Power 5 schools, only 20 percent have ended up at another Power 5 program. Upon hearing that percentage, Edwards paused and then replied: “I’m actually gonna go tell our team that. I want to make sure they understand this, because I don’t want a kid to be blindsided.”

Ninety-two players have transferred from one Power 5 school to another. Perhaps more alarming, as few as 65 have found a spot at a Group of 5 school. It would seem as if there are far more opportunities out there at the Group of 5 level for players on the move. But there aren’t.

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I also think that they should look at an option of giving a scholarship back to the school that loses a transfer player. So, if you lose 2 transfers, you have 27 to give out for that signing class instead of just 25.

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That transfer portal is a risk unless your name is Jalen Hurt or you are a high profile athlete with no behaviour issues.

I’d like to see these stats revisited in October.

Brian Davis
‏Verified account @BDavisAAS

Stat of the day comes via @247Sports:
Of the 450 players at Power 5-level schools who have entered the
transfer portal, only 20 percent landed at another P5-level school.

Sounds like we are getting our fair share! Go Coogs!

Generally, when a player is not getting PT or is down the team charts, the reason is that he isn’t playing as well as the guys above him. That is why I’m reticent to embrace the rush to grab transfers that were not playing much elsewhere. I said generally, some are good gets – especially guys that played well elsewhere but wanted to come back home.

That makes sense but I’m thinking that a guy recruited by the likes UCLA or Michigan probably has some skills worth looking at.

I don’t why it would be surprising that P5 players aren’t transferring to other P5 schools. If the issue is playing time, I’m guessing a same level school will assume they arent ready to transfer in and play. For example if a player at OU isn’t getting time, I’m guessing Ohio State won’t think he’ll get any more time there

I wonder if that’s what Jalen Hurts was thinking?

There are exceptions which is why I said generally. Guys like Hurt are rare; guys like the QB transfer we got from Tennessee are more the norm.

I like it when we get guys that had PT at a good P5, but wanted to come home for one reason or another. If a guy can start as a freshman at say, Ole Miss, I would assume he would do well here transferring as an underclassman. A guy that rarely saw the field transferring as a graduate doesn’t seem like someone we would need. We have a good team already and castoffs don’t do anything but take up a scholarship.

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