Thoughts on The Early Season and Its Possibilities

Basketball
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A few posters have been asking me my thoughts on the season so far on here and X. I was just going to DM this but realized this would be insane to DM and is A lot lol. So here are my thoughts on the season so far. I still wont be posting much since “I’m ruining the place” but i respect alot of the folks who have been asking me, so i atleast wanted to make this.

A Few Thoughts
This team is better than they’re given credit for. We’re just a few missed shots or made game-winners away from being undefeated right now. If those shots had gone in, the overall narrative wouldn’t be that we’re drastically better. While those shots would’ve changed the outcomes, they don’t change who we are as a team. we didn’t become a worse team because j’wan missed 1 ft

Here’s some perspective: during UConn’s first title run 2 years ago, they had this rough stretch, and they still held the trophy in the end. its not time to panic

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Offensive Overemphasis: Perspective

There seems to be a significant focus on criticizing the offense. I haven’t been as active here lately, but I’ve seen posts claiming the offense is bad. Statistically, this is still the best shooting offense we’ve had. We’re scoring 65+ points against top 15 defenses. I’m not saying our offense is elite, but compared to what we’re used to, this is solid.

Some are attacking Uzan or the offensive system, but look at last year: pick any random game, and there’s about a 65% chance we went through a six-minute game stretch (or longer) scoring four points or less.

What’s Changed from Last Year?
The difference this year is the “pressure to score every possession”. That’s new. We’re struggling to meet that pressure, which is why the offense is drawing criticism. However, this pressure to score stems from defensive issues. Last year, we could go on a seven-minute scoring drought and still be up by five.

Example
Texas state last year we had 5pts at the 18min mark in the 1st

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we made only 2 buckets (both off offensive rebounds after misses) and a few fts (at 60% ft%) for the next 10 game minutes (30 minutes real time)
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We were still up by at least 7 the entire time, the pressure to go point for point wasn’t there. This was Texas State, Game 13—not a top-15 defense in Game 7. And last year, we all felt the team had the potential to win a national title. If this year’s offense were paired with last year’s defense, the offense wouldn’t be as much of a point of contention as it is now. There might be some revisionist history about how good our offense was in the past few years.

Defensive Analysis

The defense is still good, but it’s fundamentally different than any previous year. We’re defending with length instead of physicality. The hallmark of our defense used to be making opponents uncomfortable—statements like “Houston popped them in the mouth” or “playing them is like dealing with a swarm of gnats” defined our style. Teams had to adjust to our physicality.

In contrast, the current defense is good but generic. Opponents are getting the shots they want; the only difference is they have to shoot over a 7’6” wingspan in the post or a long 6’4” defender. We’re not disrupting their game plan; we’re just making it slightly harder.

The Fix: Minor but Critical Adjustments

  1. Point of Attack Defense:
    Uzan and Mylik need to learn to defend with their chests, not their hands. They’re both great individual defenders, but they allow opponents to get where they want to go before giving really contested shots. Traditional Houston point guards (like Corey, Jamal, and Dejon) stopped playmakers from initiating their offense all together by using their bodies to disrupt movement. And defending with your Chest (not your hands) allowed you to get away with physicality without being called for fouls
  • Uzan understands the concept of physicality but relies on his hands, leading to fouls. There’s almost no film of him using his body to make ball handlers uncomfortable. he is either letting you get where you want and contesting in the end or using his hands to try and push you and drawing fouls. This simple adjustment could drastically improve the defense, though it might take time to learn. (Dejon made this transition of using his body and not just length, so it’s possible. but that was over multiple seasons)

Clips of Uzan “trying to be physical”

here is 2 technically “good defense”/great contests from Uzan, but fundamentally different than who we are. he let them get the shot they wanted, he just contested well, we normally wouldnt let them get these shots

  1. Lath’s Role: Lath also needs to adopt a physical style. He lacks foot speed, isn’t a big leaper, and isn’t particularly long. If he isn’t playing physically, he isn’t effective defensively. Why is he defending skilled bigs on the perimeter and trying to stay in front of them? he needs to learn his strengths

Offensive Notes

I don’t think our offense is bad—it’s actually improving:

  • LJ Cryer: Against Alabama, LJ showed he could be the star we need. He was willing to attack defenders and carried us in regulation.
    • However, he’s slightly out of shape. despite the narrative that all the weight he gained in the offseason was muscle, he isn’t in top shape. which was evident in missed floaters in the bama overtime, which are like layup drills to him when he isn’t gassed. This should naturally improve as the season progresses.
  • Sharp: Took a big step in creating off the dribble vs sdsu.
  • Terrance: Stepped up during the Notre Dame game.
  • Mercy: Can be worked into the rotation going forward.

When you remove the idealized revisionist versions of past teams, this offense statistically has one of the highest ceilings we’ve seen. we are still top 2 nationally in 3pt percentage.

as far as “closer”: i think all 4 i listed above are capable, along with J’wan and by midseason, they’ll all be ready, and we’ll ride the hot hand depending on the game. more times than not it will be LJ

Individual Player Notes

  1. J’Wan Roberts Regression:
    He’s regressed from last year. I wasn’t expecting a huge leap but i expected him to at least be as good as last year. I was willing to excuse Bama and Auburn saying “great post D” but even Notre Dame’s 205-pound power forward kept him in check. Last year, he would’ve dominated that matchup. It’s in him to return to his previous form. We started every game last year with him attacking the post. he also hasn’t been the vocal leader we need.

  2. Uzan’s Leadership:
    Some are questioning Uzan, but he’s been a great addition and leader. When J’Wan missed the game-winning free throws, Uzan was the first to lift him up. https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxALwAG-FlmaCaOoZNieBZxMwS03r4E5zA?si=sqOV1EgQrtUjj5Jj The issue isn’t fully on him but on the lack of a secondary point guard.

Role Allocation

We’ve struggled with rebounding this season. Three of our top four rebounders (Francis, Tugler, and Terrance) are trying to prove they’re more than just defenders and can score. While Terrance has earned the right to push his offensive agenda, Francis and Tugler need to focus on rebounding. Instead of both who are currently always pushing themselves for offensive position.

  • Francis and JoJo have elite rebounding potential but limited offensive touch. They should focus on inside positioning for offensive rebounds instead of looking for post-ups. it time some of the guys accept roles that aren’t “Star”, we need other roles to win

Closing Thoughts

The pieces are still there for this team to be special. physicality on defense, clear role definitions, and continued offensive growth to unlock their full potential. im still a believer.

sidenote: i appreciate all The DMs and messages everyone sent me. I don’t think anything im posting is special. but i appreciate that you like my rambles. for the 6-ish posters aggressively pushing me to stop posting, don’t worry I know my way out lol

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I agree that the defense and rebounding are really the difference between our results and what a great start would have looked like. Too many guys are trying to do both with hands and length, and this isn’t the way Sampson is coaching them.

I think the “what” is pretty straightforward - it’s the “why” that is bugging me. Why has Roberts regressed? Why are our guys less effective at blocking out and rebounding?

At least part of it is purely focus and effort, imo. In Roberts’ case, I kind of wonder if he’s “pacing himself” a little bit to avoid the late-season injury and fatigue issues he’s faced in the past.

Tugler is just trying to do too much - you can’t block every shot AND get every rebound AND steal every pass.

Uzan definitely has the physical tools to be the right kind of defender, but something is holding him back.

I’ve said in other threads that I think we’re very close to being very good, but there’s no guarantee that we’ll get there. I get the sense that the guys may trust the process so much that they believe it will all just happen at some point because it always has. It isn’t time to panic, but it is time to figure it out and get locked in.

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We heavily and I mean heavily rely on our point guard. The ability of Shead to drive the middle and dish off to one of our bigs is totally missing this year. If Uzan can’t beat people to the bucket we are in for an average season.

I have said this for 2 years now, if you play with 3 guards your 4th and even 5th better know how to shoot a 10-15 jumpers ala Fabian White. Don’t know whether Francis or Roberts know how to but they better. How can you not have a 4 and not shoot a baseline jumper?

Another open hole in the piece of cheese is no backup point guard. Why all of the 2s but no back up PG? Bit us in the rear last year when Shead went down and now may with the underperforming Uzan we may have the same issue.

We can NOT live and die by the 3s without inside scoring which means a point guard that can 1) take it to the rim himself or 2) dish off when he beats him man.

I was at the BB banquet 2 years ago and Sampson said we will go as far as #13 wants to go. (that may be the real issue).

Fingers crossed

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Good insight @pesik. Always appreciate your perspective.

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We still have the 4th best odds to win the Natty and the best odds to win the Big 12.

All is well - Buy the dip

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Thank you. Welcome back. Don’t be a stranger.

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Agree with you but also we need Uzan, Mercy and Jwan to step up the defense and fast.

I think this is a wake up call for the team. I fully expect them to make the turn in december. I believe this team can be great just need those 3 to step up and coach needs to bench the ones that are not contributing anything. I wont name names but theres are some seniors that are not playing as if theyve been in the system for long.

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Pesik, don’t let those other guys run you out of here. Most are just trolls, delusional and never offer any real insight or perspective to the game itself. If they ever actually took the time to read the long-winded stuff, they could actually learn a lot. But since they don’t, it’s why they’re not able to come up with anything to back up their opinions. Candidly, the copy there is why I don’t regularly come on here. When I am here, though, I actively search for posts like yours to help enlighten me. So, for the sake of us REAL FANS, keep up the great work!

Now, some thoughts: I believe the physicality (or better yet, intensity) with the defense will improve over time (although I like your length argument). But to me, the issues that seem to be there now are due to a tougher early-season schedule, and, therefore, more magnified because we’re facing better teams than we have at this point in previous years. But the defensive brand/style is fine, and I don’t see a ton of difference there except to observe that , combined with the increased competition draw, it’s mainly due to it being game 7, late November/early December and that it hasn’t ‘gelled’ yet, even for an older group that’s played together a while. The truth is, though, it’s difficult to expect ‘40 minutes of Hell’ at this point of the season and think your team is gonna have anything left for the stretch run (especially if Sampson’s going to play with a short bench). I truly believe Sampson purposely paces the team this way, and the regression we appear to be seeing now has more to do with who we’re playing against vs. a difference in style. The fact that Sampson is known for saying things like, ‘we wanna be better in December than we were in November and better in January than we were in December,’ etc. speaks to this gradual pacing he likes to establish for his team. So, as the season goes on, I expect to see more of what we’re used to, and am, therefore, not worried.

Interesting you cite Lath as a contributor (did you mean to do that?)…hmmm.

Love the points you make about the offense. It’s the best and deepest one Sampson’s had here, and it’s not really that close. Once the defense gels like it should, the offense will open up more, I think, and allow them to be more creative with the weapons they have there. Cryer and Sharp, while streaky, are deadly…love Uzan’s length at the point and raw skills. Once Arceneaux’s legs are fully back, I see him potentially being more potent off the bench. Malik Wilson is almost automatic from mid-range and has great shot selection. Tugler is a man-child that, when he’s asserting himself, is almost impossible to man up.

And something tells me we’re gonna hear from Mercy Miller soon (although can’t figure out why it’s taken so long…but in Sampson, I trust, so, willing to be patient).

So, yeah, the offense will continue to refine, too.

I’m not so sure Roberts has regressed as much as I think he just OVERPERFORMED the last two years. I was a little shocked to see him get the first-team Big 12 preseason nod. Never really viewed him as that type of player. While he’s a great interior force and can wear you down, he’s not really the true cornerstone he’s played like at times. No doubt, great at what he does, but I think the expectations are probably a little too high anyway (and therefore, can’t say he’s truly regressed) for a guy that’s otherwise a role player.

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We have no scoring from our big man down low and teams know it.

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But in non blowouts, we’re really only using 7 players right now. As we enter conference play, there will be fewer blowout games. If we keep managing the roster like this, their legs will be dead by early February.

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Agree, this board is better with both Joprior & Pesik. Joprior may give great insider information but nobody can give a great breakdown on a game than Pesik and agree with a lot of his posts for the most part…

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I will say UH fans are behaving like blue blood fans and pushing the panic button after three losses. UH fans are in mid-season form. Every game needs to be a win. We need to get the team to the same level as the fans and we will be fine.

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We struggle to hold a lead late, that is new. Before when we had a late lead we put a boot on their neck.

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Great to hear from you Pesik. The board is better with you on here.

I’m still a believer as well that this can be a special group. If we hit just one free throw we most likely outlast SDSU and Alabama. We were right there with Auburn. Whether we won those games or lost doesn’t change this team. We already knew our weaknesses coming into the season. Now we have seen them in game along with some other areas to improve. The coaches have more film to help analyze and improve the team. So now we just gotta let CKS and staff do their work.

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Not true many times we were up late Sampson goes into his slow down offense and teams seem to always come back, but we won most of those games albeit but definitely we don’t put our foot on their throats

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Guys fouling out is an issue. Our defensive style has our starters picking up a bunch of fouls and this leads to them being on the bench and the offensive flow is not there.

Sampson has to back off from his “fouling” style of defense and focus on scoring. It doesn’t matter if you or I think it’s not fouling defense, it only matters what the refs think and they are calling a bunch of fouls on us.

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Sampson has coached the same kind of defense for virtually his whole career. The problem is that too many of our guys aren’t playing correctly, and they end up reaching instead of moving their feet (primarily Uzan, but Tugler still plays out of control on defense, too). Until the players adjust and get it right, they’re gonna struggle to stay on the court.

The only “adjustment” Sampson might make in certain situations is to play some zone, but he’s not going to do that to win a game in November.

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my lath point was that lath is a defensively liability in how he plays now, but he could be a strength if he played to his strength … incase or injury of bad foul trouble he is next in line and there is a big drop off with him…
he tries to block shots and contest (despite not being a leaper or long)… when needs to learn to be a bully

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So you have any theories on what’s been happening with J’Wan? Is it a rhythm thing? Like if he doesn’t go to work early it gets hard to get him going? Because he’s definitely stepped back from his presence last year really on both ends.

@coogman91 yeah like pesik showed there’s been too much reaching especially from Uzan vs. getting up in ball handler’s space with the body. I think that will come it almost looks like he’s reaching to avoid getting blown by instead of trusting his athletic ability and length to recover.

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Gotcha…well, he doesn’t get many minutes anyway for all the reasons you cite! Thanks again for the thoughtful insight! The MIA regarding Mercy is suddenly very clear to me now! Haha