The cartel is fracturing.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/
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Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving conference. Does that mean they’ll be joining the SEC?
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They’ll probably come back, but this shows just how much the war is disproportionately affecting other Gulf states. Their finances are just as dependent on oil sales as Iran’s. High prices will make up for some of that, but they obviously think they need to be able to sell more barrels than would be allowed.
It’s still a little surprising in that UAE is able to export oil out of the Gulf of Oman. Their major pain is probably coming from the stranded LNG exports out of the Persian Gulf.
UAE is struggling to get some of their oil out. It’s not going very well.
There may be another explanation.
See here.
https://x.com/saif_aldareei/status/2049218172264554649?s=46&t=UAL83_A-CXvror8kdGXgQg
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Nope, they are going in a different direction. They are a minority player and got tired of letting SA & Iran dictate their output while the goals are each country are different.
UAE is modern, has commercial, political ties with the USA & Israel. They are becoming the financial hub of the ME.
It’s also why Iran has poured more missiles into the UAE than the other area countries. Iran pushes an ideology of the middle ages while UAE is progressive in thought & actions.
Yes, UAE could rejoin OPEC if it was worth their while but not as long as Iran throws its weight around.
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What do you mean “nope”? I don’t think you even know what you’re arguing against. 
They’re obviously leaving now because of money - that’s the only reason they were in it to begin with. They’re hurting, and they see the opportunity to capitalize on high oil prices in the near term without being constrained.
This is about business, not ideaology.
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It was also a nope that finished with a yes.
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Ideology is bigger than you think
UAE has been in OPEC with Iran for how long? Ideological differences haven’t really changed; economics have.
UAE wants a bigger piece of the pie and they understandably don’t want to work with Iran right now. But when there’s another extended price, they may rediscover their reasons for joining. Time will tell.
I think this could be a beginning crack to OPEC losing its dominance in setting oil prices. OPEC formed in the early 70s when ARAMCO wouldn’t give a couple additional percentages of the pie to the Arabs.
It’s a small thing, but the Gulf Nations have more players there now with enhanced abilities to get better deals than what they are allowed by SA & Iran dominated OPEC limits.
UAE is one of the few OPEC nations that has the capability to significantly increase production, while most of the others have limited upside. But OPEC’s power comes into play when prices are low, and they have more power to move oil prices together than individually.
It’s been an effective alliance, but UAE knows it would be leaving a lot of money on the table by staying under the current rules - other countries aren’t in that same position.
Agree, but if UAE is successful I wouldn’t be surprised to see others who can follow suit. It will be interesting to see what unfolds.
That’s just it - I don’t think there are others besides the Saudis who have the upside capacity to make it worthwhile. Maybe Iraq?
It’s not like they’re the first to leave. Qatar left in a disagreement over output quotas, and other minor players have previously exited, too.
As long as OPEC+ still has some level of cooperation, they’ll still be able to set the market.