Corona virus - please stop with the politics

EDITOR’S NOTE:

Yes, the topic is fine, please keep it civil, and as hard as it is keep politics out of it, you can do it. You can reference what the government and local officials may be doing, please don’t opine about it in a political light.

OK EXAMPLE: The CDC announced today yada yada… is okay.

NOT OK EXAMPLE: The CDC are a bunch of morons who are against the color yellow and are walking lock step with the media with their anti-yellow bias… not ok.

Y’all can do it. Hope everyone is holding up.

-pc
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I know the carona virus is a bad thing and its sad that people get sick and some have died. To this point 10:05pm 3/7/20, 19 people have died and there are about 125 people sick with it nationwide.

To listen to the news, you would think that this was the worst epidemic to ever hit the US and many millions have been infected and millions have died. They are whipping this into a frenzy, milking it for all they can. Never miss a chance to try to scare people so they will be sure to tune in.

I think by now we all know what we should be doing, which is pretty much what I always do – keep things clean, wash your hands, and use common sense. I am still going to games, movies, or whatever.

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It’s coronavirus and I really hope this post ages well. I agree the media is doing their thing but this one has the potential to be pretty scary.

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just a sanity check from WHO. world health org on coronavirus
100,000 infected. 3400 deaths globally
flu on average
5 million infected. 650,000 deaths…that’s an annual pandemic

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I think I found where those numbers came from. That’s only accounting for severe cases of the flu so it’s very misleading. There are WAY more than 5M worldwide flu cases a year. There have been 32M this season in the US alone.

So, you captured all the worldwide flu deaths (and the WHO actually says 300-650K so 650K is the high end) but only a fraction of the total cases. The mortality rate for flu is well less than 1% and not approaching 15% as shown above.

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I had a landlord who once told me he would eat asbestos if possible because he thought the theory of carcinogens was a hoax. Grew up with many grumpy, cynical curmudgeons who downplayed everything, including my dad who now has brain cancer just like his two siblings who died of it.

And if things due in fact do not worsen significantly these people will play the “told you so card.” The problem with that is hindsight bias. One would never know how bad things could get if primary and secondary prevention isn’t/wasn’t pushed heavily. There is no purposeful control group for comparison. The power of preventative methods in past:

Mortality rate will come down over time but it’s right around 3.4% now worldwide -probably closer to 2%. For a comparison, SARS fatality rate was 9.6%, MERS was 34% and Swine flu .02%. For those over 80, the death rate of COVID 19 is nearly 15%. The Spanish Flu of 1918 was about 2-3% and it killed between 25-50 million world wide.

Underestimating and downplaying this - although may appear as cool and hip - could be a grave mistake for many. Let’s only hope it doesn’t get significantly worse but only after we’ve done everything to prevent it.

In speaking with a top epidemiologist recently I was told the high point of a range of infection in the US could be 10-30%. That’s 33-110 million. If things settle around a 2% fatality rate, you can do the math and it would impact different groups disproportionately (elderly and those with comorbidity).

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Something like 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% ICU. If this thing spreads rapidly we might get tight on hospital capacity.

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We’re still in the early stages of it in the US and we need to do everything we can to make sure we keep it under control. Italy and Iran are getting hit hard right now. We don’t want to be next.

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It is so easy to make fun of those that want to take prudent precautions to save lives. I am old enough to remember people making fun of seat belts in cars and warning labels on cigs. But you have to be a little sensational to try to get people to wash their hands correctly and take other precautions.

That will save lives and hopefully we are all for that!!

You need a calm, strong, truthful leader in times of crisis. I heard about the Governor of RI that is setting up places for people to go get tested away from hospitals and doctors offices. Brilliant!! We need more clear thinking like that and people will panic less.

My medicare supplemental insurance texted me a phone number to call if I think I might have it. That’s reassuring to know I can get answers and help from a phone call and not have to leave the house.

I am trying to take reasonable precautions just like I do during flu seasons and don’t feel panic at all.

Of course I believe in science, so I got that going for me…

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Just be ready to jump on the Stock market escalator then it takes off!

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The disease is very seriious and needs serious – and calm – responses, After the initial fear mongering and politicizing of the virus by some in the national media, some of them are beginning to act more responsibly. Others, not so much.

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Hahaha!! Now, that is some serious revisionist history and compartmentalization.

http://www2.csudh.edu/ccauthen/576f12/frankfurt__harry_-_on_bullshit.pdf

No politics - remember?

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What was political…he mentioned fear mongering national media…and responsibility…that shouldn’t offend anyone…geeezzzzz!!

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I dare you to go online and say there are no confirmed cases in your community. You’ll get hooted down for not conscripting yourself into the hysteria.

Here’s the newest collaborative case studies on death rates:

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Dr. Khator sent email to U of H Alumni with an update. All U of H events scheduled with 50+ are cancelled for the remainder of March and all of April. Classes will be offered on line.

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not sure what you are getting at. The article you link to advocates all of the things you seem to be decrying.

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I’m not advocating anything. Just making a comment about media momentum and herd-think. The conventional wisdom based on the current furor is that mass exposure is a forgone conclusion. That might be right. But if someone were to try to calm people down in their community by just saying there are no known cases they’d probably be relegated to “Wu-Flu denier.”

The herd doesn’t like the non-conformist…witness Musk’s comment on Twitter.

For clarity, I just posted the article for information purposes (death rates), and not to support my conclusion about being cancelled on social media.

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Just mentioned on chedder that the Dutch PM wants to let the virus go and try to just protect the high risk categories. Building up immunity in a majority of the population.

On the other side I offer you a terrifying interview Rogan did with Michael Osterholm…

In a nutshell, conservative estimate is half a million dead worldwide within the next 6 months. A virus that is 10-15 times more deadly and virulent than the flu.

Damn.

I put movies on for the kids after work. I can’t let them watch the depressing news all day because of what you said.

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