A man would still be alive today if not for some incredibly irresponsible words.
Here’s a chart showing that our curve is steeper than any country’s. It’s folly to be talking about ending quarantines and social distancing just after we’ve implemented those measures.
Please graph the unemployment rate.
Coog51,
I understand your concerns about business and employment
due to the restrictions in place. It is a legitimate concern. But I feel there is a time and place for everything, and right now this should not be the priority. You don’t go in the water when you see sharks , and right now science allows us to see the viral sharks.
Not too long ago, we had a 35 day government shutdown and it did not cause long term economic carnage for the country. Note I realize this involves many more folks then the shutdown, but it’s the most current example I can find for comparison effects of shutdowns.
Another angle to consider is small businesses which
employ about 1/2 folks in the country. Now stats say
20% fail after a year, 30% after 2 years, 50% after 5 , and 70% after 10 years. That tells me that the private sector is very adept at re-generating business in this country. With appropriately guided government assistance at the proper time I’m confident the small businesses can takeoff.
There is much press now about re-opening business
but I doubt that declaration will mean much. I have no desire to eat in a crowded public dining room, be on a plane with 100-300 people, or visit a crowded theater or amusement park. Data indicates covid hits younger folk much harder then the seasonal flu too.
Life as we know it, needs to but on hold for awhile longer. I truly feel for folks getting hit the hardest economically, but hopefully a united government can help ease their pain.
It no doubt will be state by state, county by country, city by city with Federal guidelines and assistance. It most likely be targetted at hot spots and lessened from there as we go. NYC restrictions do not currently apply to Morgantown, WVA or Salt Lake, City. Cuomo is making that point right now during his daily news conference with the number of cases at 25K versus the rest of America.
I wonder if cities will restrict non-residents from traveling to them, unless for work of course.
Cuomo has made the strong point again today that fighting the virus with restarting the economy in balance has been a good part of his press conference this morning and it was the point from the WH last night.
That has to be figured out and it will evolve and need to be managed over time. Cuomo’s other point today was do not pit the virus fighting against the economy as is seen throughout this thread. Cuomo even criticized ourselves for how we responded to the virus 1.5 weeks ago with shutting down everything and mixing young kids from schools and universities with our older generation. He stated that wasn’t smart. You must do both in balance and it was obvious to me that would need to be the direction forward when this all started 1.5 weeks agos (feels like 2 months).
What a mixed message is being sent out now from the top. How are people not supposed to be confused by this? Its a deadly disease that is spreading but go back to your regular routine. Time to listen to state and local officials.
I guess in Texas some will die for the economy
They have work to do on that front and I expect it to be high level guidelines from the top. They didn’t set guidelines last night in the WH. They set the concept at kick off yesterday with work to be done on it over the rest of the week and at the end of the 15 days they’ll make a to be determined decision. That was pretty clear last night.
Cuomo for 2 days now speaks in alignment, so do many other govs.
I expect it will be a top down with state by state direction to county by county implmentation based upon the status at their local and it will evolve over time. Possibly throttle up restrictions and throttle down over time based on their local conditions. It will be an evolving throughout the country over time. Its the only approach that makes sense. But it isn’t all figured out at this time and it is complicated.
Both Democratic and Republican governors are doing an excellent job. Cuomo, DeWine, Hogan, Newsome, etc. Good to see that at least in some cases elected officials can rise above partisanship and actually focus on doing their jobs well.
I think that’s the way to handle in a country of our size (population and land mass). It takes very strong alignment and everyone being united but we can do it.
Agree!
Gov leaders have begun to speak in this direction, at least the ones that are thinking clearly and intelligently. Need to curtail the rhetoric, calm down, and Work the Problems at all levels and with high degree of collaboration and teamwork and to balance the attack on all issues. We can’t save the heart but kill the brain and vice versa. We must balance and implement different approaches at the local level which makes the most sense at a particular time for their local situation and come to grips with it that it will evolve and change over time. Its a journey and there are many ways to attack it as seen from China’s hard hand, to S. Korea adopting an approach that works better with their open society along with Singapore to an approach in the USA that makes the most sense of our handful of high dense infected cities to other less infected areas to our vast lands of less dense populations. Definitely not a 1 size fits all approach.
I’m thinking my grandson would tell Dan Patrick to go and uhh, speak for himself. 
or do whatever he wants to himself.
Social distancing is what is needed now to save a lot of lives. What would Italy and China look like now without a lockdown? Not good!!! That’s undeniable. What does South Korea look like versus what the UK looks like now. Singapore versus Spain.
There are social safety nets in place (and if we need more, let’s get them) to keep food on the table and a roof over our head. That’s more important than however you define “the economy”.
Again, look the graph above and the trajectory of the United States versus all of those other countries.
The graph is a bad comparison against the USA based upon the size. Europe at a country level compares more to our higher populated states. So if you strip out our states and compare against Euro countries it is a better comparison. NY is leading the way with our numbers significantly, not the entire USA. The vast majority of NY numbers are in the greater NYC area of the state.
Italy compares to CA from a population perspective at 1.5 size of 60M to 40M. Italy is the high-end modle with a death rate of 9.5. The USA death rate is around 1% on average or less.
China is hard to believe with their numbers, so they can almost be thrown out.
The numbers by population density and comparing our states to Euro countries is a better and more accurate analysis.
Yes let’s self select for data that suits our beliefs. Good science.
Is the idea now that a one percent mortality rate is alright? Are people with this logic considering the rate will go up if there are not enough ICU units to take care of people?
Proper quantitative comparisons is good math and good science.
I agree with that.
My point was to consider what the numbers in Italy or China would have looked like without a shutdown.
Hello, all. Long time…
Just a quick word or two, for those who might be interested.
The numbers we’re looking at are staggering. I’ll be brief.
We already know that the COVID-19 penetration rate is at, or above, 1% of the TOTAL population, right now. How do we know this? Without testing we can see that the incidence curve has been in an exponential (not linear) pattern for the last month. That means we’ve been seeing cases double every 2-3 days, for a month now. In epidemiology, a sustained exponential growth curve happens when a population has reached (or exceeded) the 1% incidence threshold. Translated, that means we KNOW that the actual incidence is already about 3 MILLION Americans, many of whom are asymptomatic. We don’t need testing to know that the horse is out the barn already. There is no way to prevent this virus from being exposed to about half the population over the next year or so. We need testing primarily to help isolate pockets and individual cases in the general population.
For context, let’s talk about some basic numbers.
For those of you who are worried about the economy, etc…understand this: the government and/or the media are not over-hyping this pandemic. They are actually LATE to the party. This is going to be bad. Really, really bad. There is no way to prevent most of the population from being exposed at this point. The only way to prevent unthinkable loss of lives is to isolate and stretch out the rate of exposure over time.
Italy still having death problems although their infection rate is dropping. This is because the mortality rate is between 0.5-10% when you have ICU beds available and 5-10% when you don’t. Average time from symptoms to death is 23 days, so you can see that this could have some extensive ICU stays which means you really need the curve to be flat once you start filling the beds up. We are still quite early in our curve and its folly to think that you can relax in one part of the country just because most of the cases are in NYC (25k/49k in NY/USA and 14k/25k in NYC/NY at the time of writing). most states, including TX as you can see from the graphs I’ve posted, are still on a logarithmic escalation of number infected. It’s early in a lot of places. Thats exactly when you need to do the work to stop the virus. Doing it in after the numbers go up is too late from a prevention and becomes more of a mitigation strategy at this point. Needless to say, mitigation is not super effective.
You have to stop it before it spreads. thats the goal. stop relying on pundits (or worse, your own feelings) and start listening to economists and medical professionals who are nearly unanimous in what the right thing to do is.
If we have 3MM with it and a 3% mortality rate, doesn’t that mean that nearly 90K will die over the next 2-3 weeks (depending on when we hit 3MM)?
Maybe I’m misunderstanding something.
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