Sarkcoog makes salient points on the future scenarios…Texas and OU are never going to join the PAC when they have the ability to join conferences like the BIG,ACC or SEC that are more high profile and pay far more money. EVERYBODY wants Texas, so they will go where they wish…Once Texas and OU have made their move, that is when PAC would react and expand if they choose to do so. Texas and OU are gone once Big 12 GOR expiration frees them. The questions are, where do they go, and do they go alone or do they take a school with them? and after they leave, what happens next? Does PAC 12 finally decide to expand? or does Big 12 simply rebuild? I think BIG going to at least 16 forces PAC to do something, as they are falling behind other P5s. so the waiting begins…
Colorado, Nebraska, Mizzou and ATM do not want Texas.
Like they would have a say in the matter LOL
Nebraska has 1 vote out of 14…Colorado has 1 vote out of 12 .Not that Texas wants PAC anyway…Mizzou has 1 vote out of 14, and your’e wrong thinking aggie doesnt want Texas, because they will support them coming in and re starting their great rivalry…longhorn can go where they want…
This far for programs that left their historical conferences and moved to new ones, things haven’t worked out in the field.
Arkansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri are doing worse, while A&M is breaking even.
Yet, the fans of those programs probably love their current conferences.
It would be something if the Big 12 decided to add Colorado State! The meltdown from Colorado fans would be epic!
Arkansas was doing well until petrino wrecked his motorcycle. Before that and after the Arkansas administration hasn’t done much to be competitive. But any one of those programs could rebound and become a force again with good recruiting and coaching. Without playing a game in Texas.
Colorado has remained the same, I’d say. Their last real relevance was in the big 8
Arkansas has 0 SEC championship game appeances. I think it’s more than just a coaching issue. Arkansas has gone from being a power player in the SWC to a nonentity in the SEC.
Nebraska started losing its swagger when they were no longer able to load in their roster with “non-scholarship” partial qualifiers. At best they’ll see the odd good year here and there, I don’t think they’ll ever be a consistent threat to win the Big 10.
Colorado was headed down the day McCartney left. Ironically moving to the PAC has left them the worse off compared to the other programs that have moved. At least the other programs are making more money. Colorado moved to make less money!
Missouri was never a real power player, even in the Big 8, they did enjoy some good years in the Big 12. I doubt they’ll accomplish much in the SEC.
A&M stands the best chance of making an improvement over their previous position in the Big 12.
I’m not sure Colorado or Mizzou has any animosity towards Texas. Colorado was trying to move to the Pac10 and Mizzouri was trying to move to the Big 10 long before the Big 12 was created. As far as I know, neither left because of what Texas was doing.
Aggies were also trying to leave the SWC for the SEC before the Big12 and I’ve heard they’d welcome Texas into the conference if a vote got that far. Doubt it happens as Texas wants nothing to do with the conference.
Nebraska is the only one that had problems with Texas, and even they would probably vote for Texas if they were considered for the B1G. Different dynamics in that conference which is probably also the reason that Texas won’t end up there.
Has anyone ever done the math of Big 12 expansion?
I recall reading a while back that by the time the current Big 12 contract expires in 2025, their per team payout will be $50-60 million. And this is for tier 1 and 2 content only!
Suppose in 2025, the AAC payout is $15 million, What financial incentive do the media partners have to see 2-4 G5 teams move to the Big 12?
Assuming pro rata Big 12 payout increase, the networks will have to add $35-45 million to each AAC teams payout, for teams that are added to the Big 12. That’s $70- $180 million a year increase cost for the networks, depending on whether the Big 12 adds 2 or 4 G5 programs.
The point being that we aren’t talking chump change here, these are very large amounts.
It’s these huge $ amounts that I think are the biggest roadblocks to Big 12 expansion. I truly believe that the networks blocked Big 12 expansion in 2016, and will probably oppose expansion in the future!
We can blame the Big 12 for being spineless and short sighted, but the networks should not be let off the hook!
Precisely…ESPN/Fox paid off the B12 not to expand. The networks would have been on the hook for the new member’s $. The existing B12 members would not have had to ‘pool’ their money.
This is also why ESPN/Fox wants to ‘contract’ the P5 to the ‘blueblood’ programs and create a G5 ‘playoff’.
This is why it is important for schools like UCF and UH to call them out on this BS…the whole future of CFB will be based on a business plan for mismanaged networks instead of merit and regional traditions/rivalries.
The networks are definitely to blame and were the reason the Big 12 didn’t expand. ESPN/FOX couldn’t come to an agreement on which schools to add so no schools were added. ESPN paid to get out of the pro-rata increase and expansion was basically dead at that point.
Networks want big games with big names because that’s what draws the ratings. Some are pushing for the smaller D1 with only blue bloods to help them get there, but there is opposition to that. Problem with reducing the size of D1 is that college sports still rely on school support. How many fans in Texas would watch a D1 that only has Texas and A&M? My bet is that you’d see ratings drop by half or more. The other issue is that reducing the size of D1 means that some of those blue bloods will begin to lose…and no longer be blue bloods, thereby, losing fans in the process.
Am I the only one who’s noticed that we started at “making the AAC more formidable” back to expansion. I’m in the same camp, there is no making the AAC more formidable, just we are all getting out as fast as we can.
If aac was making 20 million would you stay?
Yes…IMO, UH has the best opportunity for future success to separate from the rest of the Texas schools and figure out a way (don’t know exactly how) to get the same resources. I’d hate to build up the school/athletic programs then get absorbed into a conference and pretty much never heard from again like TCU. I know the $ getting in to one of those conferences would be too much to resist, but ideally the AAC would be elevated.
I actually like the AAC and would rather not be UTs or Alabama or Florida St patsy. I’d rather be the big fish in the AAC than a has-been in the B12 subservient to UT and OU.
Depends on where it would be in relation to the other conferences if it’s two thirds of what the bP5 make sure that’s more formidable. If it’s half or below then the pay raise while good for the school is still functionally irrelevant as you are still bringing a proverbial knife to the gunfight
Texas will come into a new conference and expect preferential treatment. If they get it, the conference will fail as other programs become upset with the slanted playing field. We already know the schools that escaped B12 will not be happy to be back to 2nd tier status.
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I think UT fans and administration will have to accept reduced power if they move to the Big 10. UT will likely remain a power player, just not the dominant power.
The Big 12 is unusual in that 2 programs have total control of the conference. In any other conference UT and OU will have to share power, but if the payouts are much larger, it may be worth it for UT and OU to accept a greater power sharing role.
To be in TCUs position would be a dream come true! TCU may not have a lot of power in Big 12 management and decision making, but their football program is doing superbly. They have better exposure and earning a ton of money! What more do you want?
Yeah I mentioned money but I’d rather be the big fish in the AAC (with that money), than buried in the B12. My opinion. While they’re doing well, they were making more noise on their own than in the B12.