Breakdown of the Game
Players:
| Starters | |
|---|---|
| Wade Taylor IV | ; 6’0 all-american pg, elite scorer |
| Tyrece Radford | ; 6’3 driver, 16pts per game (missed our 1st game) |
| Manny Obaseki | ; 6’4 driver, normally 6pt per but unstoppable vs Nebraska |
| S. Washington | ; 6’7 Athletic, Rebounding junkyard dog |
| W. Leveque | ; 6’10 260lbs center (doesn’t play heavy minutes) |
| Bench | |
| Jace Carter | ; 6’6 Wing, Driver |
| H. Coleman III | ; 6’8 245lb (get most of the center minutes)- low post monster |
| A. Garcia | ; 6’7 Wing, can shoot |
| Hayden Hefner | ; 6’6 Wing |
We’re on upset watch.
When the bracket was revealed, I mentioned that this would be could be our toughest match in the bracket, and I still believe that:
- They are accustomed to our style of play, so our toughness won’t shock them.
- They finished the second half of our game in the season on a dominant run.
- We are short on players—unlike the last game. they are very good at drawing fouls.
- They are currently on a hot streak.
- Jamal publicly admitted he struggled to guard Wade in the first game.
- Their #2 player, Tyrece, didn’t play in the first game. (and it was a close game)
- They are an elite rebounding team, and we’ve been conceding a lot of offensive rebounds (They are #1 nationally in offensive rebounds).
We are not the underdogs:
- We struggled in the second half but it was still a game WE won.
- Outside of Wade and Taylor, they are a poor shooting team.
- Wade was exceptional last game, a performance that would be difficult to replicate.
- They match up well against us, but overall, they are not that great of a team.
- Game film showed we missed many make-able shots in the second half.
- they are not a good passing team
- Many of our players have improved since that game.
- They have good individual defensive players but are they not cohesive or good defensive team.
(Example of the missed shots in the A&M 2nd Half)
Game thoughts:
-
We desperately need Francis to avoid foul trouble. In my opinion, this is the biggest factor for this game. They’re a dominant rebounding team that scores primarily by driving. Having a dominant rim protector who can rebound is game-changing, especially when the backup lineup consists of four guards and Jwan.
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“In Sampson we trust” - they may be familiar with us, but now Sampson is familiar with them. They shut us down in the second half, but their defense isn’t strong. I have faith in Sampson to dismantle their mediocre defense now that we’ve played against it .
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Our players need to make their shots. They have good individual defenders but are weak as a cohesive team. With effective ball movement and picks, our guys will find themselves open shots. I trust Shead to facilitate open looks, but LJ, Sharp, and Dunn need to convert those opportunities.
Game prediction:
It’s rare for a #1 seed to be this motivated to face a 9 seed, but i think that will happen on Sunday. Jamal Shead has acknowledged how he struugled with wade, our players will come out motivated to make sure that doesn’t repeat. We are the better team and will come in motivated.
With such a weak shooting team, we can likely shut down their initial attempt offense. Sampson noted that in the last game, they resorted to hero ball, and it worked. I believe they will likely have to resort to hero ball again (we won’t let them drive). With that there’s a large variability in potential outcomes for this game; either team could secure a big win. If Wade goes off and they capitalize on offensive rebounds against a smaller lineup (because Francis got in foul trouble), they could win big. However, I wouldn’t consider that highly likely in odds-making.
Then there are ways we win big, that are more likely. When teams can defend the post (which we can) and Wade isn’t making his shots, their offense is actually quite poor (scoring in the 50s). I don’t believe Shead will allow a repeat of the last game with Wade dominating. Then Francis’s ability to stay in the game will be crucial, and we know that going into the game, I believe the coaches will prepare him to avoid fouls. If not, Lath will need to have an impactful game in rebounding and motivate Sampson to keep him in.
Prediction: We’re on upset watch but I still expect us to win if I had to bet.