Why a 10 Win Season next year is a pipe dream

I looked back at our history all the way until 2003 when most would say the “modern successful” era of UH football started which is characterized by generally competent to good coaching in a G5 conference with 1-3 P5 opponents and playing games on campus in front of ~25K (+/- 10K) crowds. We have won 10+ games 4 times in this era:

2015 (13-1):

  • Good coach (Herman)
  • Top 10 offense (#10)
  • outstanding QB in at least their 2nd year of starting (Ward)
  • QB has a remarkable trait (Ward- running ability)

2011 (13-1):

  • Good coach (Sumlin)
  • Top 10 offense (#1)
  • outstanding QB in at least their 2nd year of starting (Keenum)
  • QB has a remarkable trait (Keenum – accuracy, clutch)

2009 (10-4):

  • Good coach (Sumlin)
  • Top 10 offense (#2)
  • outstanding QB in at least their 2nd year of starting (Keenum)
  • QB has a remarkable trait (Keenum – accuracy, clutch)

2006 (10-4):

  • Good coach (Briles)
  • Top 10 offense (#10)
  • outstanding QB in at least their 2nd year of starting (Kolb)
  • QB has a remarkable trait (Kolb – long ball, overall size/athleticism combination)

In summary, for UH to have a 10 win season, we must have a good coach (no 10 win seasons for Levine or Applewhite), but more importantly we have to have an outstanding QB in at least their second full year of starting that that some kind of remarkable QB trait. Defense didn’t matter as much (we were 20, 35, 95, and 64 in those years). It stinks, because I think we would have been there next year with King. With Clayton Tune we are at least a year away from a breakout season due to him needing more experience. I’m looking at some improvement but probably 7-8 win range next year. JMO.


Oh ye of little faith and slow to believe. Our record in 1975 was 2-8 because Bill Yeoman redshirted a bunch of guys and stockpiled for the initial SWC season. In 1976 we won said initial season stomping UT 30-0 en route. Our QB was an inexperienced soph who ran much more than passed.

I see no reason why we can’t win 10 or more games this fall. As a matter of fact I will go ahead and make my annual prediction of going undefeated.


I’m glad those four data points settled things for eternity.


Obviously nothing is set in stone, all I am saying is that I believe there is evidence of certain markers that make a 10 win UH season. I’m just not seeing enough of them to think it is possible. 8-4 would still be a solid season. 7-5 or less would be kind of ehhh

In Frost’s first year UCF was 6-7 with McKenzie Milton stepping into start after a couple of games. His numbers were similar to Tune’s.

The next year they went undefeated, had a great defense and Milton blew up.

Also, in Sumlin’s first year we won 8 without Case looking like he was ready to blow up to the level he did coming into the season. But there’s a very strong possibility without the hurricane we would have beaten Air Force and probably Colorado State instead of losing close games to both.

I’m not saying we’re winning 10 games next year but that seems like way too big of a conclusion to draw from the few 10 win seasons we’ve had.

I always wonder what is wrong with people who mostly look for the negative and feel the need to post it.


How do you make the assessment he is a year away? King (junior) failed behind the same wet cornflake offensive line.

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Nothing negative about what I said. I stated facts. The fact is our QB #1 has not PROVEN to be a top QB. The evidence says that’s what it takes for UH to win 10 games (along with a good coach which I believe we have). Hope I’m wrong.

I’m just as befuddled with how so many of y’all are ready to anoint Clayton Tune and make excuses for him when he hasn’t performed at an elite level. Its like all the 49ers Jimmy Garroppolo lovers - yeah maybe hes okay, but is he “the man”? Obviously not in crunch time of the SB. I want to see it from Tune. UH needs “the man” at QB to have the BIG season. Its a fact. Sorry if it hurts your feelings.

People will predict UH to have a losing season before they even know what the other teams have. Remember when SMU wasn’t a good bowl team but they were good enough to win 10 games because the rest of the conference was a little worse than they were?

Pepperidge Farm remembers.

@kfd91 misery loves company.

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I don’t think you understand the definition.

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Define top QB because we thought we had one until he could not make the reads in one of the simplest offenses known to man.

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I’m predicting 7-8 wins so don’t put me in the “losing season” category.

King wasn’t perfect and had probably below average accuracy but I’d put up 50TDs and blazing speed and quickness against most QBs in college. King was an elite QB for UH. 2020 was his year to give UH a 10+ win season like the other 3 elite since '03 (Kolb, Keenum, Ward). Now it isn’t going to happen.

Exactly who did Coach redshirt in’75? In my mind the only major redshirt was Danny Jones who was also injured and then maybe Hodge who quit one year and went to work for Dow before retiring.

You should post the schedule and do a rundown of the opponents roster-who they have, and why we will lose or win each game. Until then, your stats from 1923 and QBs who no longer play here shouldn’t be put into the equation you use to predict the season this year.

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Didn’t Wilson Whitley redshirt? He played one season in the SWC and was on the team of the decade.

Doesn’t have to be that difficult. Sure those things matter to some extent in an indivudual game but certain correlations are clear and strong over a season.

For instance, in the NBA, do you have a top 5 player or at least 2 top 15-20 players? If yes, you are a real championship contender (elite outcome). If not, its a pipe dream to win it all.

In the NFL, do you have a top 12 QB? If not its a pipe dream to win the super bowl (elite outcome).

For UH, our “highly correlated variables” are the combination of a good coach and an elite QB in at least their second year of starting. An elite outcome (10+ wins) for UH ain’t gonna happen next year.

There are outliers to these scenarios above but they are rare. I’m just saying there is no reasonable reason for UH to expect 10+ wins. We should be targeting a moderate improvement of 7-8 and go for 10 with a 3rd year of Holgorsen and a senior in Tune assuming he can keep improving.

Is Desmond Ridder elite? Was Quentin Flowers? You’re really going to have to define elite because this list is going to get real sketchy. :joy:

No he played hard all four years he was here including the 2-8 season

I feel 7 maybe 8 wins.

10 wins is a pipe dream. I am willing to wager you that we do not win 10 games.

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