Interesting fact I learnt today. Each of the P5 gets a guaranteed $54 million from the College football playoffs. Each of the 4 participating teams gets another $6 million for their respective conferences.
That’s means for the 2017/18 season the Big 12 got $60 million in playoff money to be split among 10 members, or $6 million per team. The SEC for $66 million or $4.71 million per team.
Basically on a per team basis the Big 12 has the sweetest deal. Any expansion will only lower the amount paid out to each Big 12 member. For expansion to be revenue neutral for each of the current 10 members, each pair of programs added would have to bring in $80 million in media contract $value increase. I doubt the current media partners would be willing to pay that much for any pair of programs available to join the Big 12.
So the fact is that at present, financially speaking, any expansion will be a money losing proposition for the current 10 members. Hence I don’t foresee any of the P5 expanding anytime soon, even in 2025 expansion seems remote.
The last round of expansion/realignment was driven by needs of the conference networks. Unless the Big 12 forms it’s own network, and needs more content, expansion makes no financial sense for them.
The Coogs best hope is that the PAC is driven into a corner and sees that its best chance of survival is to have a leg in Texas!