I don’t USUALLY do this but I’m feeling a 12-1. SEE - not always without my Scarlett sunglasses.
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i would bet on any of the games for the coogs to win were i in a sportsbook on a saturday.
they could win them all but then there’s probably half that if they lost, i wouldn’t be suprised; the coogs aren’t significantly better than 1/2 of their scheduled opponents.
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Hence the saying, “put your money where your mouth is”.
All I care is that we win our first game, then the next one, then the next one and on…Every game presents its own set of opportunities and challenges. I can’t wait.
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So you’re telling me there’s a chance…
Last year I made the poll and said 10-3 before the first game was played. I nailed it.
The average pick was around 8-4. Guess I was “Lucky”.
So I made the poll again this year and I picked 13+.
The average pick looks to be between 10-11 wins, so far. Guess I’m now a “Homer”.
If I’m right again, I’ll no longer be lucky, or a Homer. So when I make the poll in 2027, I’ll graduate to “insightful”?
I firmly believe this team is better (almost across the board) than last year’s 10-3 team.
I also believe TT and Utah will take a step back, and BYU won’t lose a step.
TT, while reloading, had to replace a lot of difference-makers and I’m not buying in to Will Hammond. Utah has a new head coach and replaced ALL 5 STARTERS on their o-line.
BYU and Houston in the Big12 Championship Game.
I also believe West Virginia will be the most improved team in the conference and could be the toughest game on our schedule.
Go Coogs!
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I freely admit I’m a Homer, I predict an undefeated season every year.
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I’m not predicting the Coogs go undefeated, but I am saying this is a playoff caliber team.
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We have a talented back up
So if CW has an early health issue then yeah we could have an issue but later in the season
The back up could be just fine
I hear he’s already showing very well in camp
No win prediction, but I will say if UH beats Texas Tech in Lubbock, September 18th, this season’s trajectory skyrockets into space, and UH can legitimately have, in the back of their minds, competing for a B12 Championshp, and, I can’t believe I am writing this, a CFP birth.
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Games we should win: Oregon State, Southern, @ Georgia Southern, Central Florida (yeah, it’s not UCF), OK State, Cincinnati, @ Colorado, @ West Virginia, Baylor
Games we are the under dog: @ Texas Tech
50/50 games: @ K-State, @ Utah
I voted 11-2 (winning the B12 championship game), but I was voting with my heart.
I think the over on a 8.5 O/U is a safe bet.
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Out of 115 Voters, so far, only 6% (7 people) have picked the under on the Vegas odds.
There was some talk that we were being “homers”, however, I believe we can all sense that Vegas has this one wrong…
So, in some ways, the Coogs are still flying a little under the radar, which is good.
But every day there are more players making trophy watch lists and pundits calling the Coogs “dark-horses”, legit playoff contenders, and favorites to make the Big12 Championship game.
That Tech game is getting more and more important.
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That’s what homers say, lol.
(You know that’s funny)
Last year, 8-4 made a lot more sense, but the Coogs blew right past that.
This years team is simply better, and deeper than last years 10-3 team.
Over half of Voters chose 11, or more, Wins.
Won’t have to wait a lot longer.
4 weeks.
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Willie Fritz has historically been a strong coach against the spread (ATS), famously going 41-31-2 (56.8%) ATS overall during a large stretch at Tulaneand excelling as an underdog, where he went 8-4-1 ATS as a home underdog with the Green Wave. [1, 2]
Coaching ATS Profile & Trends
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Underdog Success: Routinely outperforms expectations when getting points, especially at home.
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Tulane Era (2016–2023): Finished well above .600 in cover percentage in multiple seasons, navigating major program turnarounds.
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Rebuild Momentum: Carries a reputation for over-performing early in rebuilds and slowing down complacency after big wins (around .500 following a victory)
Now you’re talking about the point spread
That’s not a good trend
If “slowing” and “down” are adjectives, then this IS bad…
… but if “slowing down” is a verb, then slowing down complacency is a GOOD thing.
————————————————————
What I posted was AI generated, and I’m not a huge fan of AI, in communication, because it doesn’t “translate” well.
…and AI used in customer service should be a felony, IMO…
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Which is a travesty.
Unfortunately, Tech didn’t do us any favors by laying the egg they laid last CFP…
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I should have pinpointed what I was referring to. I was really speaking on that part of your AI goobeldygook. AI was trying to “say” complacency after a win is not a good thing, and it needs to be corrected, “slowed down”, a GOAL to do so.
The other part of my confusion was the post on Willie’s ATS record/s and you being an avowed tee-totaler non-gambler. That’s all.
Agreed on the complacency stuff.
Regarding the gambling, while I don’t do it, I’m fully aware it exists, and all the things it brings to sports, good and bad.
The odds and metrics parts of it are very relevant to discussing college football, as coaches use metrics to help mold game plans and make game day decisions.
Willie, despite all his success, continues to defy the way Vegas tries to pigeonhole him.
He consistently outperforms what pundits think he can do. That’s all I’m trying to get.at. Perhaps I just didn’t make my point well?
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