A New Disturbance in the Force


https://x.com/mcclellanosc/status/1752357712003014799?s=46&t=I8rkpWXEoHf3t8sahNAV8A

Prices are high here, just not my imagination. 2nd highest grocery cost only to Miami.

https://www.chron.com/food/article/houston-texas-grocery-bill-expensive-18637227.php

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More bad economic news for those seeking bad economic news.

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Inflation, its definition and what it does to your wallet.
Everything is substantially higher than three years ago. Is it me writing it or is it everyone feeling it?

Inflation peaked a year and a half ago and has basically been falling since. Annual inflation inflation is now where it was at the (my fav saying) turn of the century. Stop ignoring reality.

Also, McDonalds is taking advantage of consumers who will keep buying by habit. Their costs haven’t gone up that much. Hell I just bought 18 egg for $1.49 this week. At least 1/3 of inflation has been due to excessive corporate profits. The rest has a strong energy cost component…which…

Cough cough …is being dealt with…

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From January-November every single jobs report has been adjusted DOWNWARD. All were wrong.

December and January will meet the same fate. Government propaganda designed to keep the current regime in Office.

Democrats or Republicans…does not matter. B.S. numbers designed to fool voters.

Ah yes, now the conspiracy stuff starts…

BLS always refines job numbers and economic data; no need to look for something crooked in that practice that always happens.

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Political words were used

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I think Dec got adjusted up like 100k today, no?

Like up a full 50%+ ?

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I mean, they have to do that occasionally just to throw you off the scent.

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(click to embiggen)
https://x.com/AlmanacTrader/status/1753468343200125171

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Can’t read due to paywall other than opening summary of a death spiral.
Any details of when economic armageddon hits this time ?

Just for discussion purposes, looks like debt has been at 99% or greater of gdp
for about a dozen years now.

2012 $16,066 99% Fiscal cliff
2013 $16,738 99% Sequester, government shutdown
2014 $17,824 101% QE ended, debt ceiling crisis
2015 $18,151 100% Oil prices fell
2016 $19,573 105% Brexit
2017 $20,245 104% Congress raised the debt ceiling
2018 $21,516 105% Trump tax cuts
2019 $22,719 107% Trade wars
2020 $27,748 129% COVID-19 and 2020 recession
2021 $29,617 124% COVID-19 and American Rescue Plan Act
2022 $30,824 123% Inflation Reduction Act and student loan forgiveness

Edit - adding in other other countries numbers for context. Japan is the basket case along with
Italy, two G7 countries. As of 2024, US debt to GDP appears to be around 118% from other numbers I’ve seen, so some progress has been made (note, that concl. is not in data posted) ???

Economy by Gross Debt % of GDP (2023)
:jp: Japan 255%
:greece: Greece 168%
:singapore: Singapore 168%
:it: Italy 144%
:us: United States* 123%
:fr: France 110%
:portugal: Portugal 108%
:es: Spain 107%
:canada: Canada* 106%
:belgium: Belgium 106%
:earth_americas: G7 Average 128%
:uk: United Kingdom 104%
:cyprus: Cyprus 79%
:austria: Austria 75%
:finland: Finland 74%
:slovenia: Slovenia 69%
:de: Germany 66%
:croatia: Croatia 64%
:iceland: Iceland 61%
:israel: Israel 58%
:slovakia: Slovak Republic 57%

We won’t see a lot of deflation. Prices will remain where they are for most goods and services. If some of you just want a party-branded economy regardless of the numbers, you’ll always gripe. And you do. Constantly. Most people are working and buying stuff, all of what they need and some of what they want. The people who are usually/always poor are still poor. That’s not many of us.

Housing (rent or buy) is expensive, but most of us aren’t moving this year. It’s one of the elephants in the room, and needs to be addressed.

Things can change for the worse and they eventually will. But we’ve come out of Covid pretty well.

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Really?

image

Just keep skipping along the yellow brick road. This doesn’t end well for anyone.

“The office market has an existential crisis right now,” Barry Sternlicht, CEO of Starwood Capital Group ($115b AUM) told the Global Alts conference. “It’s a $3 trillion asset class that is probably worth $1.8 trillion. There’s $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is .”

I’m just going to repeat this every year. The below is from last March.

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In comparison, the subprime mortgage market was 600 billion.

The thread I linked to above was also about another wide scale collapse that never happened, a collapse of the banking system.

You realize how close we came in 2008 with a $600 billion subprime market to a total financial collapse?

Now we face a $3 trillion commercial real estate market while the Fed still has an inflated balance sheet left over from 2008 and a Federal goverment overspending with no end in sight.

A recession is the least of my worries

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