There has been a lot of discussion on this board about the AAC absorbing some of the BigXII and becoming a power conference. Such discussion is not surprising, as this scenario would punish the BigXII for its shenanigans in 2016, punish Baylor for its shenanigans in 1994, and obliterate the conference that has been harming our athletics programs since 1995.
There also has been a lot of discussion in the sports media about this scenario. Such discussion is not surprising, either, because sports media increasingly is about controversy and spectacle rather than substance.
Unfortunately, as much as I would like to destroy the BigXII and play in an enhanced AAC, I just don’t see it happening, and here’s why. The BigXII has a lucrative media contract, a “Power 5” reputation, and a shortage of schools, while the AAC has none of these things.
Imagine that neither conference existed and that there simply was a list of current AAC schools and remaining BigXII schools from which to build a conference. Building even a 16 team conference would mean that some schools would be left out. Which schools would make the most sense to leave out, given geographic footprint, media market, and athletic prowess? Probably these: East Carolina (media market, athletic prowess), Temple (geographic footprint, athletic prowess), Navy (geographic footprint, football only), Wichita State (basketball only), Tulane (athletic prowess). Yes, many BigXII schools lack media markets, but they make up for it in other ways. I can’t see leaving some of them out while keeping some of these AAC schools in, nor do I see a way of shedding some AAC schools to absorb more BigXII schools.
Given all of this, I am hopeful but also fearful for UH. It would not surprise me to see the BigXII add four schools: Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, South Florida. That would be disastrous for us.