After watching the UCF v UC game last, it is clear that the 3 P5 ready schools in the AAC are UCF, UH, and UC.
Given access to P5 resources and recruits will help but these 3 have already proven they can be big time, when given their shot to represent
So, what we know about expansion is that the Big 12 will NEVER add another Texas school and the ACC will NEVER add another Florida school.
Here’s what I propose:
The Big 12 adds UCF + UC. This expands their footprint into Florida and gives them an Ohio school near West Virginia. Both can help in basketball and football. They will also be adding two large public schools, including the 68k UCF, with tons of potential.
The ACC convinces Notre Dame to become a full member and then for #16, they add Houston. The benefit for the Notre Dame addition is obvious. For UH, they gain access to the state of Texas. UH will help with football but they will also be adding a storied ‘Jordan’ basketball program that is trending up…way up. Houston fits in with the other urban schools and is making huge strides with its academics to satisfy Tabaco Road.
As for the other AAC programs, they are just not as P5 ready as those 3. USF and Temple are lacking an on campus stadium. Memphis could but they have some academic hurdles to overcome. UCONN’s is trending down…way down. ECU is stuck with who they are.
Tulsa, Tulane, SMU are just not big time right now.
People always say that G5 schools could never handle the schedule over a season.
Well, since joining the big 12 TCU has done well for itself (majority of years).
Utah is doing well for itself (probably the second best or best team ever n the PAC 12).
Louisville got to number 5, and Jackson won a heisman.
It is ALL about resources. I think given the p5 money that UH, UCF, UC, USF, and Temple could compete for conference championships in one cycle of recruiting classes.
Yeah but TCU won 7 games in their first season in the B12 and 4 in their second. I think Patterson even made a comment about needing a couple of years to catch up with B12 level recruiting before TCU could really compete with the top of the conference.
Similar deal with Utah. They won 8, 5 and 5 in their first three years in the PAC.
Louisville was already in a “BCS” conference, though the Big East was lower than the ACC.
Or maybe you are already saying it takes 4 years with your “one cycle of recruiting classes” comment. In any event, when folks somewhat condescendingly say that the G5 schools couldn’t hold up against a full P5 schedule, I think they are more talking about if you dropped a top G5 school in a P5 conference at that point. Not after several years of recruiting as a member of that conference.
I still think that our better options are Big 10 followed by PAC 12…if we are so lucky.
It will be interesting to see what happens in the next year and a half with all the conference TV packages all expiring…
Our Ace in the Hole is a tremendous President in Renu, who can champion our Academics, Tier 1 and Carnegie Research status…which are absolutely necessary in getting any invite.
Go Coogs !!!
Sorry to disagree here but the only Texas school the Big 10 will ever take is Texas. Our best hopes for P5 call up are Pac, B12, ACC in that order. You could even make the case that the B12 is our best hope. But I think with all the non con scheduling with Pac schools will give the media partners and Pac 12 conference a lot of data to support their decision to add UH.
The problem of UH being an island in either the ACC or Pac could be an issue. WVU seems to be coping just fine being an island in the B12, so I don’t see any reason why UH would have a problem.
If the Big 12 were to expand into Houston, they are as likely to that Rice as UH. Texas will want a school it can control, and UH ain’t such a school.
To me the main worry is how long can we afford to keep spending money on athletics operating under the assumption that P5 membership is forthcoming. With every passing year we are missing out on tens of millions, how long can this be kept up?
Our future lies with the PAC 12. There is no better growth stock in academia than the University of Houston. Our upside is unlimited.
The west coast understands growth stocks and innovation. They don’t care where you are, they care about where you are going to be.
Throw in the fact that Harris County and the city of Houston is clearly going blue, our politics are matching up very well. (That wasn’t a political opinion just stating an observation). Politics plays a HUGE part in academia.
Very strong points, montcoog. I think that is exactly the direction we are heading and AD Pezman and president Khator are going to do all they can to make it happen. They both have great contacts and great drive to get this done.
So much overthinking here. It’s all about TV and always will be about TV. How much more will conference X get for adding certain teams. Do they have a network? Do they want a network?
Why do they keep adding garbage bowl games? Because people watch them, no one cares if there’s anyone in the stands.
What might make the PAC 12 more promising is that there are a lot of California corporations and folks moving to Texas. I will reserve my opinion on that, but it will bring us closer to the west coast via their college ties.
There are so many variables and scenarios in this entire enterprise…I just pray that in my lifetime we are invited into a P5 (or its future equivalent) to put UH on an even playing field.
God knows that the Administration is doing everything in their power to position us in the most favorable spot for a potential invite…
This sounds like the logic a few years ago when everyone said that Temple was a great add because Comcast’s headquarters were in Philly so then NBC would sign with the AAC and we’d have all the games on right before or after Notre Dame!!
I think it’s going to depend on what happens with the Big 12 and how badly the PAC falls behind in revenue. Lot of people sort of assume the Big 12 is going to lose OU and possibly 1-3 more when the TV contracts are up. I was on the Tech board the other day, and they were talking about being in the best position possible in a few years when realignment hits. I don’t see OU or Texas going to the PAC. So looks as if our options, assuming we have any, will be a watered-down Big 12 (but probably still a weak P5) or the PAC with maybe Tech and possibly also w/Ok State and maybe TCU. But who knows how it’ll shake out?
Right, Sam. Who knows. I suspect that if ND gets pressured into joining the ACC that’s where UT will land. Two huge feathers in the ACC’s cap. Of course, one could also make an argument for both of those teams going to the B1G.