P4 vs G6
Don’t believe the SEC and TEN hype.
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I’m just happy to be included.
Iowa state’s schedule is incredibly favorable. They have real shot at 12-0. 11-1 is likely IMO.
The BYU, ASU, @TCU is the only scary stretch.
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Tho ASU is still a threat, I thought Baylor, who is no defensive powerhouse, really exposed that if you give all your attention to shutting down Jordyn Tyson you can limit that offense big time.
-He had 7 catches for only 43 yards.
-Only 1 catch in the first half, his additional 6 receptions are inflated because they were just getting him the ball to get him the ball near the LOS in the 2nd half.
-19 of his 43 yards came on one catch. Beyond that, he had 6 receptions for 24 yards.
-He was averaging 13.5 yards per catch thru his first 3 games. 15.1 for his career, and 11.5 last season
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As I see it
W- Arizona — ISU is coming off a bye, no reason to lose this game
W-Cincy — not that good. They play Kansas the week before. Not easy to have two good teams back to back
W-Colorado — they just aren’t that good
Bye
W-BYU — byu coming off an emotional game against Utah and ISU coming off a bye. Homecoming for ISU. Should be a win
W-ASU — Asu plays Utah, Texas tech, Houston. And then ISU. Plus they just aren’t that good when compared to the cyclones
L-TCU — if I had to pick an L this is it. Third game in Iowa systems hardest stretch and TCU coming off a bye.
Bye
W- Kansas — gotta beat Kansas off a bye
W- Oklahoma state
Jordon Tyson is great. Not sure anyone else is on that roster.
Stay tuned, ill have some ratings posted shortly that we can use to project what lines might look like for our upcoming schedules. It’s just for fun
@BYUcougarfan @Kyle_Be_Coogin
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So…Houston was better than Utah last season (beat them head to head), upgraded at msny key spots…includung QB, and enters year 2 with their HC, starts the season 3-0 and has a worse % chance than Utah…right???
Bias much?
Remember, they also picked ASU to finish LAST last season!
Sagarin Ratings thru Week 4 (intended solely for the purposes of determining accurate spreads in a vaccum)
1 Texas Tech - 81.72
2 Arizona St - 78.90
3 Utah - 78.68
4 BYU - 77.45
5 TCU - 77.45
6 Iowa St - 77.09
7 Kansas - 76.45
8 Baylor - 75.18
9 Houston - 74.43
10 Cincinnati - 74.20
11 Kansas St - 73.43
12 UCF - 72.52
13 Colorado - 72.44
14 Arizona - 71.56
15 W Virginia - 69.35
16 Okie St - 60.06
KEY:
On a neutral field, simply subtract the lower rating from the higher rating (i.e. UH - Colorado = 1.99, meaning Houston would be 2 point favorites on a neutral over Colorado. The Sagarin value for HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE this year is 5.25. When you add that you get 7.24 meaning Houston would be 7 to 7.5 favorites at TDECU Stadium over Colorado. In Boulder, it would be 1.99-5.25 = (-3.26) meaning Colorado would be 3.26 point favorites in Boulder, so UH would be +3 or +3.5 in that scenario. if you don’t believe the home field advantage is actually worth 5.25, then you can instead use the standard 3 points for home field. Up to you.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: It’s important to remember this is a look at a hypothetical vaccum, meaning equal health equal rest equal scheduling discrepancy absence of rivalry equal quality of home field crowd etc etc etc. This doesn’t actually exist, and all these things are also taken into account when lines are actually set, along with insider info, predicted propensity to bet on or against, etc.
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I think this really illustrates the importance of scheduling in an unequal schedule model. Houston would be a slight favorite today if they got ISU or BYU at home.
Instead, due to the schedule you pointed out, ISU looks to possibly be favored in all but 1 remaining regular season game with a decent degree of likelihood.
As much as I HATE losing Farmageddon, once again Jamie Pollard is not unaware that this means on “non-farmageddon” years, at least half the time, probably more often, Iowa State will draw a much historically easier opponent in its place. None of this matters if you’re not competing for titles. But if you realistically intend to be, then it does matter.
It’s disgusting, but I understand the reasoning. Mathematically speaking, the long-term likelihood that Iowa State and Kansas State will both make the title game in a given year will be orders of magnitude higher than BYU and Utah both make a given title game, should we foolishly let Farmageddon die.
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Yeah, the loser of the Holy war will next to never make the championship game
Edit: it’s interesting how low Arizona is in Sagarin ratings
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Yup! Especially because i put us on upset alert LOL!!!
According to this, it would be a disaster meltdown…
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I’m still not on the Fifita train.
Iowa state by three scores.
I will do the massey ratings soon which will take a little longer. That one is less for gambling and more for power rating overalls and specific aspects
FWIW, BYU is doing really well in that too.
The algorithms really don’t “LOVE” isu this year. Which is understandable given Ark St and the collapse of KSU aaaaand South Dakota, and iowa looking maybe underwhelming so far, etc
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Computer stuff has been pretty high on BYU. I think most human stuff has been hesitant with Bear.
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Dampier hurt and Utah hiding it? So it begins…
Now that the rule is in place. He seems completely oblivious to the power gaming lobbies have in state govts.
Maybe he feels insulated from that given the Utah legislature probably isnt big on that, but a public university employee is playing with fire in general. They’ll get to you one way or another, especially in the Big 12 where Yormark very much cares about the feelings of those where the pockets are deep.
I would have just played dumb at least. I question some of these older coaches’ awareness of how significantly things have changed now. You have to at this point.
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Fine the Utes!!!
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I still look at Sagarin but honestly his rankings have become comically bad in recent years. The preseason advantage the SEC and B10 teams receive is insane.
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I think the better way to judge them would be to compare the ratings to the schedule played and see if his ratings held true and how close the sagarin spread landed when compared to the actual final result…
He may have this data available already… I’m not sure
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