What kind of fuzzy math did you take in school?
There is no responsible math equation to explain why there were so many sec teams last season.
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the last 4 not getting close to getting a bid
I can see Oklahoma State, Colorado and WVU playing their way in since the bar for a B12/B10/SEC team is that Rutgers team from 2021-22
Baylors NET is decentish but seeing how they played the last couple of games IDK about them right now
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The math that says that the SEC had 12 teams in the Top 40 of NET last season. And another 2 that were top 50. With the last 2 being Top 90.
You can argue about Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and maybe Texas getting in but even that only brings their conference bids to 11 or 12. Acting like it was some sacrilege that they got 11 legit bids in because those teams earned it on the court is just being a hater.
I actually vibe with what you’ve been posting lately, and I generally fall more on your side of things, so don’t take this as me calling you out or anything like that.
But I would push back on your cutoff at 40 characterization. I would describe it more broadly in a Big 12 context as follows
Top 45 NET you should be feeling really good. Any sort of quad 1 success in the win column (like 2 or 3 Q1 wins, # of Q1 losses are basically irrelevant for these purposes)
If you’re in the 46-60 range, you are in the bubble zone. Quad 1 record becomes CRUCIAL, as well as avoiding Q3 and Q4 losses. Essentially, any Q3 loss will cancel out a Q1 win. (But you can still absolutely make it in with say a 59 NET and a 6-4 Q1 record w/ no Q3 and Q4 losses, for example.)
And when I say Big 12 Context, this is because the strength of conference schedule is also taken into account. This is the part people are really gonna object to… Indiana State missed out on an at-large w/ a top 30 NET and Rutgers got in with a 77 NET. These are probably the two most extreme examples to date. MVC vs Big 10 sort of thing, Rutgers Q1 record I BELIEVE off the top of my head was 6-6 and they were in the Big 10, so they got in.
If your NET is over like id say 63 at the absolute worst in the Big 12, you are really gonna be looking mission impossible, but it’s technically still possible. All depends on that Quad breakdown and the relative weighted strength of the Big 12 that year.
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From TCU to Colorado have a shot but they got a lot of work to do and if the elite teams aren’t feeling particularly generous its gonna be tough for them. I would hope TCU, Baylor and OK State get there in the end but I have no faith in any of the teams after them.
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Correct there’s definitely more to it but I don’t really deep dive that far until we start getting close like mid February or so when we have much more data points in the metrics. For now my ~ Top 40 cutoff is more of a general guide to quickly gauge conference strength and see who (in our conference) is borderline. Especially since the casuals who clearly don’t know how any of this works start getting their Coog and B12 victim cards out to whine and complain.
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once you get below the MWC and A10 you’re playing a whole different game even though metrics can affect seeding
also gotta note that in that indiana state year we had a whole seedline get wiped off since i was still feeling good about them until thursday of that week, tho the take that would get me killed on reddit is that unc last year was more reasonable “controsversial” team than that rutgers team you mentioned 
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It’s just math is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Who came up with the equations? Who capped margin of defeat at 12?
Oklahoma State is 13-3 and 55 in KP
Texas A&M is also 13-3 but 41 in KP
Oklahoma State beat Aggy 87-63.
How weak is the SEC? Aggies are currently tied for first but they are 0-2 vs big 12 teams that aren’t in our big 5. The combined losses were by 36 points. Aggy also lost to SMU by 13. Aggy best win in OOC play was against 7-9 Pitt who currently sits in dead last in the ACC.
But it’s just math…
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Yes beyond the Big 6, TCU should absolutely be in as it stands.
Baylor yeah, but they’re trying really hard to screw it up.
Oklahoma State is the only true bubble team in that they should be there and are there, but not in the best relative bubble position, either.
West Virginia, Colorado, AZ State had hope and squandered it already. Cincinnati and KState have made a career out of it with better starting points, so it shouldn’t be all that shocking.
Let’s consider why or how things got this way a little more in-depth…
Baylor is a good example of our top heaviness working against us. Typically, even solid modest-level middle-of-the-road Big 12 teams SHOULD be able to pick teams like Arizona, ISU, Houston, and BYU off at home. At least one, more like two. (I know you Coogs shutter at the idea w/ good reason, but that’s typically common before you all arrived lol)
But BAYLOR is already 0-2 there. Sure they can beat Kansas and Tech at home, I suppose. But now, do they even get those opportunities because of the unbalanced schedules?..and even then, those two are nice wins, but not the same value as taking out one of the Top 4 contenders. They’d probably have to beat Tech and Kansas in whatever form they play them, and still take out 1 top contender at home. Or else they are gonna find themselves sweating things out and earning a modest seed, at best.
Now apply that same situation to Oklahoma State, or Colorado… and you can see it’s pretty bleak. Especially because those teams are LIMITED in even being able to attract Q1A matchups in the non-con, they can’t get home and homes, neutrals, or invites to the good tournaments w/ similar Big Dogs to our Big Dogs. They just can’t. So, they’re basically limited to a sprinkle of Q2 non-cons at best because of their current questionable brand status.
We actually kind of did it to ourselves, and idk if there’s an easy fix because football is a big need for our health overall, but a negative in that it’s created the situation we have now…where our basketball schedules for our mid teams are the worst of both worlds, watered-down AND unrealistically difficult AT THE SAME TIME
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we could always shoehorn in teams 9-16 in some other massive mte so the effect of theoretically having a tougher noncon helps it a bit lmao
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I get it and I see what you’re doing. I mean, I would’ve worded it a bit more diplomatically…but that’s just me .
It’s actually a crazy complicated and complex situation when you zoom waaaay out. I can see how squaring that we ARE the best conference, but also not really getting screwed on total bids can be frustrating and that feeling is justified.
Those two things are naturally incongruent, but I do think both statements are true, and we’re on the same page about that.
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90% of it is bc we’ve played with our food in buy games this year vs previous years since if you look at torvik we only got to 4.3 wins above bubble once we beat wvu at the end of january
at least we still have time and chances to fix that now vs this time 3 years ago as to where we could only really fall lol
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Ok State, outside of their MTE, played their entire non-con at home. You’re telling me that they couldn’t schedule an away game with 1 or 2 Top75 team(s) to get more Q1 opportunities and prove their mettle against the mid to top teams of the other power/mid-major conferences? They could’ve even gone to Tulsa and gotten a Q1 win there. Akron, Cal, GW, VCU, Butler would easily schedule them. Plenty of opportunity for them to schedule a game or two for more Q1 opportunities. I think the middle of our conference just need to be smarter in how they approach building their non-con resume particularly when they know that the top of the league is going to be loaded. If you’re OK State and you see that 4-5 B12 teams are going to be Top15 in the preseason go ahead and call up Virginia Tech for an away game lol.
I’m not going to cry for those who are KNOWN to routinely schedule too soft in non-con and try to make it up in the conference (looking at you TCU but they actually did kinda good this year) that leaves them marginally on the bubble or trying to scrape their way in year after year. Nor am I going to say the metrics are rigged or sketch when we crawled out of the metric abyss ourselves while we were still in the American no less! I don’t buy that sob story at all. Especially when we were accused for years of gaming the metrics. lol
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@HWSCoog I do think a much better case can be made that we are getting screwed at the top, or at least as you said, they are setting the stage for the big screw to come later on.
That, is a very apt observation, IMO.
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Bingo! Problem is you might lose at GW or Akron, and either way your NET itself is going to be pretty much indistinguishable from uncut cupcake mode they all want to feast on now.
But I agree, especially in the context of how hard those top 6 wins are going to be and how infrequently you can even count on getting those opportunities due to the very unbalanced schedule.
They do need to start getting creative, or this is gonna keep happening. 100%. I’ll give Tang some credit there. They had opportunities, just didn’t do enough. Because he’s a bad coach.
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remembering the meltdowns some big east coaches a couple years i think some coaches still don’t know that you can’t mess around and have 3 buy games where you only win by 10 if you go cupcake heavy lol
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Yup. I think the sweet spot is decent team/program and not so daunting road environment where it would be a tough place to play. Maybe schedule it in December when the students are on break. But I couldn’t imagine a B12 should be scared to play at like a South Florida, George Mason, Murray State or a Miami(OH). Gotta think outside of the box! lol
And getting those 1 or 2 Q1 wins makes a WORLD of difference.
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And you certainly can’t go 0fer on the few big opportunities you get in conference. Their Conference has even more waste than ours! So it certainly wasn’t an apples to apples comparison.
Like you said, at least this isn’t the AAC anymore so you can’t really fall off the map. It’s just really hard to climb if the bubble is your starting point.
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like I don’t know how to help ya if your Team Sheet looks like this at the moment. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
and compare that to UCF which is NET Top 40.
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Another chance to brag, but TJ was the king of the cupcake feast.
The thing is we won those games by 30-50 every single time. We won enough big ones to get up on the 2 and 3 line, but a 1 seed was not realistic that way and he knew that.
So when the time was right, he cashed in all the brand capital he accrued in those 4 building years, and he still had to accept going to Mackey with 3 upperclass leaders he was (likely, Momcilovic is a JR so it depends on NBA) going to lose on the return trip to Hilton.
It was a gamble and he didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Now Purdue is kicking itself because we got ALL the spoils from that, and now they will be without Smith, Loyer, and Kaufman-Renn on the return trip to Hilton.
Lot of coaches would have been scared to do it. He made it happen only a few months before the season. He left that date open specifically for only the biggest of scalps. (It was only half open because it’s right before iowa game too)
Point, Otzelberger.
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