Opinion piece published by presidents of Syracuse and WVU.
This article more or less supports MY point:
See here:
Quote: The first scenario is the implosion of FBS, with schools and conferences jockeying for position and cannibalizing each other in a race to the bottom. Perhaps only 36 schools could be left standing, barely able to afford the House settlement and soaring NIL costs of top-tier football.
Quote: A second scenario is that the SEC and Big Ten will save themselves and accelerate the implosion by creating their own 36-school “Super League” with football, basketball, baseball, softball, and a few other revenue sports. The NCAA and the rest of FBS will be left with no real revenue or future.
Note how they said 36…NOT 48.
Any breakaway “professional” college league would certainly NOT have 48 schools. It would have 30-36 schools, just like any other pro league, and UH, being one of the schools unable to afford the House Settlement and NIL costs would undoubtedly…NOT be a part of it.
That’s why you should be DEATHLY afraid of any P2 breakaway.
In the end, I’m still guessing that there would be at least three “power” conferences, simply to keep all of the content providers/broadcast networks happy, and you should hope for that to, given how that’s the best hope for UH to remain in the “power” conference football business.
A P2 breakaway provides no hope for UH. Only despair!
This article more or less supports the 72 team CSFL model that has been proposed, but as I said, that model, which puts the teams from college football’s biggest rivalry game inexplicably in separate conferences, needs A LOT of work!
Yes, but power and greed are basic human characteristics that organizations like UT-Austin and Ohio State, et al, have exhibited for the past 50+ years. This is nothing new, and IMHO, the demise of the NCAA began decades ago with such actions as UT’s vendetta against UH & others (like SMU) even while they were cheating and doing the same kind of things themselves without any repercussions because they controlled the NCAA infractions committee.
Now, rather than supporting an unbiased approach such as using a third party to govern the NCAA more equitably, they seem determined to make the largest $ grab in U.S. college history.
Their is certainly no consensus as to what to do and it seems that there is little to no leadership at the NCAA executive level today (because the leadership of UT-Austin & Ohio State, et al, want it that way). This college FB media rights money grab is reminiscent of gold digging in the old wild west and seems likely to damage if not end collegiate girls sports.
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For context, the presidents of WVU and Syracuse are among the group proposing the CSFL.
That makes sense!
A model similar to the one proposed might be worth considering, but as I said, it needs work.
No reason to include Navy and exclude Army and Air Force.
Michigan and Ohio State must always be in the same conference, as the game’s biggest rivalry matchup.
Some of the G5s in the 72 probably shouldn’t be there.
72 seems way too many. I think a 48-56 team league might get SEC-B1G support. It’s kinda half way between the 30-36 team league that SEC-B1G want, and the proposed 72 team league.
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See I actually do imagine a 70-ish team “Power” arrangement, simply because, as I’ve pointed out before, that’s the only way to have enough “power” matchups each week to keep all of the content providers full.
But I don’t see it including some of the teams mentioned in that proposed model.
A 48 team model would be too big for any pro league, and in any event, as the article points out, there probably aren’t more than about 36 teams that could truly afford a professional college football league.
I don’t see more than 36 or so programs being able to afford to pay for a truly professional model. Certainly UH cannot.
If the P2 does break away, then as the article says, it’ll be either a) as the current P2, minus some parasites, plus ND and a few of the biggest ACC schools, OR b) as the current P2, plus ND and maybe one or two other teams.
36 teams…which is consistent with every other pro league in America, and more importantly, would consist of the teams with enough in the way of financial resources to support it.
The only thing preventing that from happening is the fact that there are so many content providers in search of quality content.
That’s the only reason I see a final result of three “power” conferences with 18-24 teams each. It’s the only way to keep those networks satisfied.
Unless your school is among the blue bloods these days, college sports is really starting to suck at a rapid pace.
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The Big 10 and SEC are going to leave the NCAA and form a super conference. They will put the product on the open market for the highest TV and online streaming bids. All others, including Houston, will be the minor leagues.
Relegation is much needed, but taking into account the need for predictability in accounting, there should be a base level revenue that is locked in, then bonuses for playing in a higher tier and making the CFP or other bowl games. This would appease the more successful schools and allow success to be the driver of revenue, as opposed to revenue being the driver of success (UT). Pay the athletes like employees, with everyone getting a pretty even pay, but the bonis revenue from success can be spent on coaching/facilities instead of to the players.
I would not care if 30-36 teams broke away and formed their own league. Probably will not have to attend classes. They will be minor league professionals with no interest in the school other than a means to get into the pros.
Likely they will have limited rosters and contracted players.
Then we might see REAL college football with scholarship athletes who can make a little side money and go to class and get an education.
I will be happy following that.
I just don’t see how this happens
What makes these college football teams value is the connection they have to their respective universities
Otherwise, it’s just the XFL. Who cares about the XFL?
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If so we are finished I doubt football program will continue
Nobody is going to watch a 36 school super league.
Not enough schools to keep people interested!
That would be suicide!
College Football is not like the pros…college Football has way too many schools and states and fans.
You only have 36 you will kill the golden goose. Way too many powerful state flagship schools on the outside
48-50 is a more appropriately number to KEEP those extra hundreds of thousands or even million of fans egaged.
The schools outside that 48-50 know they dont belong.
Ive listed those additional 14-16 schools many times
Our only hope is that the B1G wants a school in Texas. The fact the SEC has 2 has nothing to do with the fact the B1G does NOT have a presence in Texas.
And YES it matters.
Before we joined the Big 12, I had no reason to watch their games and i didnt.
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We won’t make the 48-50 tier bracket we are mid 50’s to 70’s at best
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How do you figure that?
Wouldn’t the 36 richest programs presumably have the largest viewership anyway, or close to that?
Why WOULDN’T people watch the 36 most viewed teams?
That makes no sense.
Has having 36 teams or fewer in any other major professional league been too few to attract viewership?
Nope!
Sorry, but given that, I’m not buying your assumption.
In the end, there aren’t 48 teams out there that can afford a truly professional model.
The only thing weighing against a 36 team breakaway is the greater than 16 matches per week demands from the networks.
As I have noted in the past, that requires a model closer to 70 teams.
I watch a fair amount of the big/sec games. Depending on matchups. If they break off into some super league, I’ll no longer have interest. As of now they play the same sport as my school. Once that changes, I don’t have any connection to them.
Because College sports isn’t pro sports…it’s more personal than that…almost like politics…there is a personal hatred factor not seen in most pro sports fans.
They will tune it out!
Raise your hand if you are ok becoming UT fan or an TAMU fan because they are in the 36 and we are not …I’m 100% sure I AM not adopting those teams…neither are REAL Texas Tech or Baylor or TCU fans.
As I’v e mentioned multiple times there are still too many powerful big FLAGSHIP schools outside of the B1G/SEC that are worthy.
You think Colorado fans are going to watch Nebraska games?
You think Iowa State fans are going to hope Iowa wins it all?
Do you see Florida State and Miami fans pulling for Florida?
NO!
You shrink to 36, you make it something MOST of your fans no longer want to watch.
The thing that makes College Football so popular right now is that is tied into a Bigger system.
I’ve said that 48 number with (2) 24 school conferences with (2) 12 school regional divisions is the perfect number.
There is NO ARGUMENT for those outside of that 48, or 50 if ND and BYU are given independent treatment.
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Doesn’t matter if other schools’ fans don’t care.
Those 36 biggest/most watched programs have plenty of fans of their own that DO CARE, not to mention plenty of “T-shirt” fans and “subway alumni” fans.
Those people aren’t going to stop watching and following them, no matter what.
And there are more than enough of those to keep any breakaway league going.
As I said, there aren’t 48 programs big/wealthy/resourced/followed enough to keep up.
No more than 36, probably.
I think it comes down to fanbase size of the 36 schools.
You may find this info useful. Ultimately the fact is that already SEC and B1G cover almost 70% of the CFB fanbase, if they add ND, and the top 4 ACC brands they’re up to 80%. That should be enough to make a 36 team league quite profitable: