IS CONFRENCE REALIGNMENT AS CRAZY AS IT LOOKS

Football
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I wanted to start a new thread that is geared more about college realignment in the future (2 yrs away or longer). I was of the mindset 2 weeks ago that the sky is falling and the college football games I have loved going to for so long were going to be gone in 5 years.

I wanted to come up with a plan for how college conferences could maybe prevent the inevitable.

I researched a lot over weekend stuck at home. I initially thought to come up with a plan for how conferences could align in the future without the current craziness.

I first got Into the details about CFP & Post Season Bowl distribution. I stopped with that.

  1. The big chunk of CFP & Bowl funds go to the conferences (not the teams). The more teams in a conference that go the CFP & Bowl games the more money that goes to that conference.
  2. I found that academic money was solely based on student athlete graduation rates. The money is less but the payoffs are to the conference plus another 2 mil per each college that complies. AAU brings no money in.

I stopped my research because in reading about CFP, Bowl, and Academics revenue distribution (on their websites) I realized that the CFP, Bowls, & Academic revenue distributions are all about inclusion. The CFP doesn’t wants the National Championship to be exclusive. With 4 teams it’s too exclusive. With a 12 team format, it’s more inclusive but with 8 more teams that have proven they are worthy of a shot at the title. Outside of the Power conferences a G5 conference champion will get an invite. The Power Conferences benefit more because they primarily play stronger schedules and can have multiple teams ranked high enough to also send more teams to the CFP along with their Conference champions. EACH TEAM team that lands a spot in the CFP brings a huge payday for their conference.

Also. I love going to watch UH college football games. Watching that same game on TV doesn’t come close to providing me that experience of being there. I love watching the games at TDECU more than Royal Memorial Stadium. It is more intimate and it’s ours.

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I thought this was GRAYFOX for a second!!!

That being said, it really all comes down to money. I think the end goal will be 2 gigantic megaconferences taking around 40 of the best BRANDS in college football.

The SEC already has the bulk of the southern schools, the B1G will most likely grab a few east cost schools and maybe 1 or 2 southern schools.

I think there will still be some value in the “bridge” conference so-to-speak, which is where UH most likely lands.

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This is very topical.
RR thinks they are killing their future growth & will not get a huge % of NFL fans even w super confer.

Con realignment at 13:28
Case conversation in the opening.

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No its not really as crazy as it looks - its really just the college football free market correcting itself.

SEC and BIG will call their shot but not in the way some are predicting (Breakaway super league). The top of the ACC is where there is still a large market mismatch - some of those teams belong in the SEC/BIG from a tv payout perspective. I predict long term that the ACC gets picked apart by the SEC and BIG who will both expand to 20 schools and go to 4 5-team pods each. Each BIG/SEC pod winner gets into the playoff = 8 teams.

After the Big 12 picks 4 more from ACC they will have 20 teams and will get their top 2 Big 12 teams into the playoff automatically. Top G5 gets in. 1 at-large. BIG/SEC will play 4 pod games + play one other pod (5 games) = 9 conference games. (Big 12 will follow the pod structure for scheduling as well). Basically SEC and BIG go to an NFL style structure but there are some accommodations for the non-BIG/SEC schools

BIG/SEC will still control 80% of the playoff spots and 80% of a much larger pie so this structure will keep them happy. Perhaps playoff goes to 16 and you just have more at larges to guarantee your Alabamas, Michigans, etc… get in the playoff if they don’t win their pod.

A big caveat is you can’t be a top 8 seed and host the opening playoff round at your stadium if you don’t win your pod (BIG/SEC) or conference (Big 12, top G5) - so out of these 10 teams - the top 8 ranked get the top 8 seeds and host an opening round game. This will make more games matter.

Can you imagine how many big games there would be in the BIG/SEC in this scenario throughout the season - especially the last few weeks? An 8-3 Iowa vs 9-2 Wisconsin might not have mattered before but now that they are playing the last week to win their pod and get into the playoff - a game like this would be MUST SEE TV. Same for a 9-2 Penn State vs 9-2 Michigan, 8-3 Texas vs 8-3 Texas ATM, etc… This will make even more games matter.

In this structure you avoid leaving teams completely out and the HUGE political and fan backlash by going to some kind of exclusive BIG/SEC only 40-60 team super league. Remember an exclusive league is a zero sum game so alot of teams would start having worse records instead of getting those 2-3 nice OOC wins when everyone can play everyone. I just don’t see that happening. Way too much collateral damage politically and you would lose a large portion of the NCAA football fan base - I’d comfortably say 1/3. For me, I will not watch a single minute if UH doesn’t “have a path”. In this structure, every D1 team “has a path” but it is biased towards the big conferences and bluebloods - so be it, life isn’t fair.

The $ in this is insane from many big games late in the season for BIG/SEC especially, then on to CCGs to firm up seeding, then on to a 12 or 16 team playoff with selected times that don’t conflict with the NFL for maximum ratings.

Below I summarize what might be able to be executed if this structure was in place this year - some teams picked a bit arbitrarily (ATM! haha).

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I see it ultimately shaking out in a manner similar to WasSooner.

There will be three major conferences, with the Big 12 being one of them.

There are simply too many content slots open on too many non-pay, pay, and streaming networks to satisfy all the demand with a mere forty teams.

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I agree with this, only on the basis that no further relegation happens within the current Big Ten and SEC.

Everyone knows that schools like Rutgers or Vanderbilt aren’t big schools, yet they are getting the same privileges as the best brands in their respective conferences. There are several Big 12 schools that are more valuable than the bottom of the current Power 2 schools.

If the best brands of each of the Power 2 decide to split apart and make entirely new conferences just to grab the best brands possible and get rid of the parasites, then say goodbye to the “Power 3” scenario. The Power 2 in this case would have it’s own playoff, scheduling system, etc…

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I don’t see relegation happening.

The SEC needs Vandy for the sake of academic cache.

As for Rutgers…it’s bigger than people realize.

Remember…they fill up a 52K seat stadium for football (something that isn’t true of every B1G school…see Maryland and NW), and are in a media market TWICE the size of ours.

They may suck on the field…but their importance to the B1G in terms of MONEY (remember, college football is a monetracy, not a meritocracy) cannot be underestimated.

Brand quality and brand size are NOT equivalent. And in the realignment game…brand size matters more.

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Not saying it won’t happen but I’m saying it is EXTREMLY messy and therefore EXTREMELY unlikely. So you talk about leaving a few SEC teams, maybe 5-6 BIG teams, most of the Big 12 and ACC, and all the G5 out? Nah man, I just don’t see it. You’d have like 15 state senators threatening monopoly investigations and a huge chunk of the college football base would be out. I mean like 80 D1 college teams would be left out. For what? The $ there may be less for the top blue bloods than what I propose above and there would be infinitely less resistance in a system where everyone has access but the BIG and SEC squeeze the orange about as hard as they feel like. Lets not mention in an exclusive league a bunch of teams would have losing records (zero sum game) that they likely wouldn’t playing “the other 80”. Think ATM fans will be happy with 4-8 season followed by 6-6 followed by 5-7? etc…Those fans do not have a top 5 pick to look forward to like in the NFL draft. I think it is really just an ESPN/FOX wet dream or a lazy person’s take without actually thinking it through. I just don’t see it being remotely realistic for tons of reasons. I’ve named about 5-6 that each by themselves I could make an argument is a show-stopper by itself.

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Rutgers is essentially the University of New Jersey…they aren’t going anywhere!

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Well that’s the thing. All the best brands want to be in the “Power 2”, and even they themselves don’t know where it ends or how this all concludes. They just want to be in the best spot possible for when and/or if that day comes.

Hence west coast teams joining a conference that makes zero geographical sense

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CFP eligibility question:
current model is “SIX highest ranked conference champions” get in automatically
if PAC12 goes away…then American, MWC and C-USA are looking pretty good.
Am I reading that right?
The power brokers wont have a C-USA team taking a spot from the SEC/B10 right?

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There has been media buzz about changing the playoff criteria based upon the folding of the PAC.

We’ll see.

At this point, the P4 champions will all make it, as a matter of course.

Presumably, the AAC and MWC will have the next two best conference champions most years.

That’ll take care of the auto bids.

As for at large bids…it wouldn’t shock me to see them go mostly to SEC and B1G teams.

But if the playoffs are revised … perhaps each of the P4 will get two bids. Who knows?

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No, they are meeting right now to revise the number of AQ bids. Sounds like P4 champions + top ranked G5 champ get 5 AQ spots. 7 at-large spots to make 12 total.

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Edit: I should say reports have suggested they will revise to a 5+7 or something not 6+6. We were already at 6+6 and Sankey lead call to meet and “review” after Pac was killed. Doubtful it stays 6+6. No way 2 G5 gets auto bids when P4 can get extra teams in.

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And what are you trying to say? Are you denigrating New Jersey? It’s the densest state in the country and filled with great areas like Short Hills and Princeton.

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He’s not.

He’s saying that they are a MAJOR university that isn’t going anywhere, much less to a lower level.

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no…quite the opposite.

It’s called Rutgers but really it is the large state flasgship public school of the State of New Jersey.

They aren’t demoting Rutgers

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Sorry. My bad. :grinning:

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Nobody is getting demoted out of their conference.

And, there won’t be two 20 team super conferences.

It would take closer to 30 or more each to make it legitimate.

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AND, with Stanford and Cal trying to join a conference 3,000 miles away…

I never want to hear anything about carbon footprint from any academic in the Bay Area ever again for the rest of my life.

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I think the idea of B1G & SEC creating their own NFL style league and championship goes beyond what the media companies want.

College Football can’t be narrowEd down to just 40 teams. How many of us would turn our allegiance from UH to one of the 40 teams? I’m not rooting for Texas or Texas A&M. They don’t even play here. How many Houston Oiler fans followed to Tennessee?