From the beginning, I’ve thought that the ham-fisted approach led by the Tweeter-in-Chief was the main hindrance to actually achieving anything meaningful in Iran. Since he’s apparently gotten out of the middle of making tactical decisions and let the long game play out, things may be turning, though slowly.
The Strait isn’t “open,” but it isn’t totally shut down, either, whether that’s because of Iran’s inability to shut it down or because they’re collecting enough “tolls” for passage that they’re making an economic decision, or both.
Agee the current game plan seems more effective for now.
I’m not sure how many are tankers are paying Iran either. The the ones who pass near Iran were leaving transponders on and they were rare. The US was sending them the Oman way and they were turning transponders off on that path. You are right they could also be paying Iran for all we know.
Duce630
(DustinK - Damn it feels good to be a Cougar. -Dwight Davis)
7918
We’ve been singing these songs since the beginning. We’ve also been singing about going broke for Cuba for the three months before this war. Yet, both countries seem to be holding out still, so I don’t really get my hopes up much on either…
Iran cannot continue with the status quo indefinitely. If their only challenge was financial, they could hold out much longer, but their inflation is skyrocketing because their ability to import has been curtailed. And every ship that passes through the Strait reduces their leverage, so it is clear that their military capacity to control passage has diminished.
They’re still selling some oil and have made big profits on what was sold over the last several months, but if they can’t import and can’t militarily control the Strait, they aren’t going to prevail in the long run. If they escalate and attack their Gulf neighbors’ oil and LNG infrastructure and the Houthis disrupt traffic in the Red Sea, then that will change the dynamic. Their biggest weapon is oil prices, and the global market is susceptible to major disruptions right now, but they’re either unwilling or unable to make that happen.
Duce630
(DustinK - Damn it feels good to be a Cougar. -Dwight Davis)
7927
I understand that. What I was saying is that I’m not really going to get excited to anticipate the end of this war every time we’re told they are going broke or things are getting worse. I will wait until the dam breaks, until then from my persepctive it is SSDD.
Yeah, not trying to get anyone excited. This isn’t a “tomorrow” thing. But the status quo will eventually drive some kind of change in Iran - they’ll either have to escalate or back down at some point in the coming months. The big concern is whether they decided to try to burn everything down around them.
Iran government can maintain their status quo. They will not be overthrown internally. That was always a pipe dream. They have land boarders and ports that can’t be blocked without 10 times, or more, the effort in manpower and weapons that we have so far employed. We’re not going to do that. We were never going to do that (go all in like Iraq)
What can be done, for the oil markets, is the pumping/piping bypass that I proposed way way way back in this thread that folks are apparently waking up to. That only solves the oil issue. Nothing else.
I think you underestimate the toll that sanctions and the blockade have taken and will continue to take. But Iran’s leadership knows what’s up.
The stupid thing about this is that we could have been weeks/months ahead of where we are now if the current strategy had been the past strategy. Plus, we would still have a lot more of our bombs and missiles.
I don’t think I do at all. I think many in this thread greatly exaggerate the potential effect because they’re comparing it to their own experience and what they would do.
The Iranian people are not us. They’re used to hardships Americans can’t fathom. They have been attacked by a foreign enemy who killed children from the start. They will not put the US over their own government without an Iraq or Afghanistan war like effort and even then it’s a 50/50 proposition long term at best.
And yes, all we had to do was continue what we were doing. Sadly the idiot thought he knew best and the idiots he surrounded himself with agreed.