Meanwhile, Iran war

https://shorturl.at/xVftA

And we have rolled out the red carpet for them this week.

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Yup. Same with Russia.

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Insane!

Meanwhile, France goes to war with Iran’s proxy, the Houthis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/france-to-send-military-aid-troops-to-protect-saudi-oil-plant

Should be unlocked but the Pentagon added 29 people to the wounded list.
https://wapo.st/4xNlJ17

Probably just hang nails according to Coogfans

Iran money continued being blocked in China

https://x.com/clashreport/status/2103250203729956942

Weekly Strait of Hormuz oil flow ~13.5 mbd for the past 7 days. Closing in on pre-war levels excluding Iran exports. The Strait seems to be outside Iran’s control
https://x.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2103551464404644045

Better let those ships that got hit today know that Iran is done. :laughing:

Another way to look at that is it’s not even back to July numbers. And I don’t think 65% is exactly closing in on anything.

Not to mention the costs to ship through the strait is significantly more ($10+/bbl). Until we get a deal, this will continue to be very costly.

Brent is still at $100/bbl and diesel $6.50/gal. The markets aren’t treating anything like a return to normal.

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And that’s with it being propped up by ship to ship transfers…That is flat out crazy!!! Plus, LOL, the increase of Iran’s volume.

The real question I have is did the markets finally decided all the announcements every week are bogus or is supply and demand finally driving the bus lol.

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I think neither is the case.

The oil markets still respond to the announcements, and the supply:demand relationship is still skewed on the low side.

But what I have noticed is that each time we go through one of these fake resolution cycles (and there have been like 15), the floor settles higher and the following rise is more dramatic.

Weird dynamics.

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It’s hard to unpack it all. Crude markets have been strange for months. There has definitely been some manipulation keeping them lower.

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Oil market is irrational right now and there’s definitely been skew both ways (i.e. fake reports of deals or fake reports on ships hit and attacks by Iran/them controlling the Strait)

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Really bad look for the US if we are not reliably reporting injuries and attacks.

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Looks like minor injuries but they were investigated for concussions and smoke inhilation. Glad they’re safe and back on the field.

Looks like another wave of “deals” are being reported. This time centering around relieve for Iran if they give up nuclear enrichment program. God knows if this goes anywhere.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2104621710506967197

This comes after false reports of the IRGC hitting 18-19 ships the past couple days (be aware the Hormuz report/letter and Fars News Agency are essentially propaganda papers for the IRGC)
https://x.com/HormuzReport/status/2104251702501421151

If 18-19 were hit it would show up in oil flows and ukmto reports according to tankertracker.com
TankerTrackers.com, Inc. on X: "When in doubt, visit https://t.co/C1uca7Ef4b" / X

I’m happy they are ok but not happy with the lack of transparency.

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G7 to release 100 million barrels of diesel/crude stock over next 4 months.

Member countries in the Group of Seven agreed Friday to release tens of millions of barrels of diesel fuel and crude oil, the latest move by industrial economies around the world to cap soaring gas prices.

At the gas pump, he said, “A release of this magnitude could temporarily reduce diesel prices by 25 cents per gallon but does little to increase refinery capacity to produce more.”