What’s up guys, is the war over yet
2 Likes
Basically over. The regime doesn’t know, hence the siege.
The oil markets don’t think that.
Based on the oil prices, it seems no one knows. Allow me to doubt your statement.
1 Like
It’s not a war it’s just costing us like one
1 Like
It’s been “basically over” since what, March? Really now.
No. Once the straight reopened, terrorism is the only card they have left, so that’s when it ended.
It’s never been more clear to me - you can’t let Iran get nukes. And they won’t surrender, so I hope they continue on until the regime topples.
1 Like
I think you have a different definition of the war ending than I do. But then you also have a different definition of “soon”.
2 Likes
The Strait is much more opened than it was at its worst but it’s not fully opened.
Its current state of “open” is also incredibly expensive and dangerous.
Nothing has ended and the recent “opening” hasn’t been going on long. Things can and have changed quickly throughout this war.
Brent remains above $100/bbl for a reason.
2 Likes
And then what happened?
1 Like
All the more reason to annihilate who ever is running the IRGC. It’s obviously a terrorist state masquerading as a sovereign country. Taking pot shots at shipping, even with the minimal damage they’re having on actual tankers (doesn’t even seem like they have the ammo to properly damage the things), isn’t conducive to being seen as a successful state. They lack the ability to actual govern these waters, and lost this card months ago.
Hey at least it’s not $150/bbl, I remember all the talk of $150, $200. $250 per barrel at the beginning of this war. Yes, while it is expensive (its always been comparitively dangerous to transit this part of the world) the cost are greatly outweighed by having shipping continue. Having this fully open would mean a complete capitulation of a opponent know to be full of radical idiots. Even then after this regime is toppled there’s still lingering splinter groups that’ll have to be dealt with.
While I do focus on WTI ($91.07/bbl) since that’s what affects us Americans the most. There’s still questions regarding the Brents stability. Outside memory of the general populous the Ukraine war still has a major impact on oil and gas/diesel prices, especially with recent news of Ukraine striking Russian oil manufacturing plants. Having a duel threat like this isn’t conducive to lower gas prices. it does make wonder if we and our allies have done our best to curve these impacts?
IMO, the handling of oil prices have turned out dramatically better than initially expected and yes while they’re still higher than to my liking there is significant cause for continuing this operation.
Not sure Americans are feeling great about that.
Anyway, diesel is running at something you’d typically see at $175-200/bbl.
It’s always dangerous but far more now. Insurance and cargo costs are insane right now.
We have to do what we are doing but it’s not really “open.”
Yes, we created a permanent issue here.
Diesel is impacting us most now and the $91.07 isn’t telling the entire story.
Yes, Russia/ukraine is still impacting prices but we’d be fine if not for Iran War.
Not sure what our allies can do other than what that are doing (increase reserves releases which is a temporary solution).
I don’t think anyone “handles” oil prices. And the fact that it’s not worst case scenario for gasoline (it is for diesel), isn’t going to make Americans feel better.
I agree we have to keep going but that’s not the big question here politically. It’s should we have done it.
We are stuck doing what we are doing unless we make a deal which I expect after midterms.
2 Likes
Uh - the Rial went from 2 million to 1 dollar to 2.5 million to 1 dollar in 27 days.
Uh…. I’m not an economist but that sounds like a trend towards “not worth the paper it’s printed on.”
Letting Iran get nukes is coo coo for Cocoa Puffs crazy. You can’t make a meaningful deal with this regime.
Nothing to do but see it through. Anything else is a mistake.
2 Likes
They weren’t close to getting a nuke though.
I think we all agree they shouldn’t have one. No reason to rehash all of that.
As for making a deal, I still expect one. Both sides will want it after the midterms. I’d be shocked if we stick to status quo for up to 2 years. No one at the top was expecting or signed up for that.
2 Likes
Yeah, the narrative about oil prices not being as high as predicted is kind of meaningless when fuel prices look more like $150+ oil (more like $200 in the case of diesel).
Putting free oil on the market has successfully manipulated the supply:demand balance to suppress prices, but the only winners in that deal are refiners.
1 Like
If inflation keeps growing exponentially things go fast.
If a vendor on the street sells an egg they price in their expected replacement cost. That expected replacement cost is going up more each month.
At some point, how much markup is enough? “Sorry, traded goods only,” eventually is the price.
Also, it’s more expensive to pay soldiers, so are they printing more money? Here’s what Google AI says
“Yes, economic analyses and reports indicate that Iran has increasingly relied on expanding the money supply (money printing) rather than sustainable tax revenues or hard currency to finance its military apparatus and state expenditures amid severe economic isolation and an ongoing conflict.“
Hmmmmmm. Printing money to pay bills…
Phase 2 going now.
It’s oscillated between things going fast and it lasting up two years since for months. I can’t keep up.
This thing has been a political disaster and I don’t expect it to continue long after midterms.
This isn’t complicated.
Up to 2 years but when it goes it goes fast.
Inflation is taking a huge jump now. It’s accelerating the last 2 months. If you get another increase in percentage this month look out.
Been hearing some version of this for months.
2 Likes
You aren’t setting realistic expectations if you are surprised by that.
1 Like