I’ve always thought Europe and China would transition to EV’s before the US. Still do…particularly Europe where gas prices are higher due to their taxes. Europe getting more options quicker than the US now it seems but we’re going to have some good options soon.
Interesting thread. Been in a few similar ones on car forums.Few thoughts:
With EVs not paying gas tax, someone mentioned the mileage tax, which I think can be good, but it needs to factor in vehicle weight as heavy vehicles put more stress on roadways. A 7000 lb truck does more to the road than a 2500lb small car.
Based on the title, does moving to EV dull the recession because of the massive amount of federal spending that would be required to force in a network of charging stations for all people to use EVs?
How much impact are people actually expecting to reduce oil by if the world goes all EVs even counting commercial trucks?
Oh no! Halfway to the tipping point!
Notice the hidden deep in the article caveat…
I don’t want to offend anyone, but to think that we are able to “go green” in any appreciable way is just naïve. You can’t will into existence technology that doesn’t exist. Someday, the market will solve this, but not for a long time. We have sufficient oil, gas, and coal, until that day arrives. We just need the will to produce it. Crooked, agenda driven politicians will still force this down our collective throat, and we’ll all pay the price for it. To the koolaid drinking, true believers, I’m an uneducated, Trump supporting, knuckle dragging Neanderthal, but I’m not. I’m just a common sense, realist.
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We are producing plenty oil and gas in the US. We can walk and chew gum at the same time.
The transition is a good thing. Even most oil and gas companies are onboard. It will take a long time but will continue in that direction along the way.
I do hope we get off coal as much as possible though. Natural gas burns much cleaner and is very abundant in the US.
I could live with compressed gas vehicles, in the interim. That’s a common sense, practical bridge. But it makes too much sense.
Interesting article about surging registrations of EVs and how it can HELP the grid.
See lots of press today about being past peak gasoline consumption in this country now.
See article above as well on EV registrations. Do you believe we are at or just past peak
gasoline demand in US ? Could also explain why there is no rush to build much more refining capacity in the US. My recollection is refining has paper thin margins anyway. Your thoughts ?
I think EVs will continue to gain market share on ICE cars, especially as they become cheaper. I got an EV in January, and I’ll never go back to an ICE car. The public charging grid isn’t ideal, but that will only get better over time.
Hydrogen is the answer. Whether it is fuel cells or hydrogen internal combustion engines.
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Agree with this too. My SO’s company is venturing out into hydrogen (from wind/solar), and the renewable energy team at my firm is seeing a ton of growth in hydrogen.
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It’s very possible in the US. Soon anyways.
That’s part of it. They are also aren’t easy to build. It’s a lot easier to expand existing.
Not always.
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Most older refineries that aren’t an environmental quagmire are broken down and shipped to places like India. If the refinery is a future Super fund site, they keep it going.
Believe that Elon and others have offered a long-term cost analysis of fossil fuels vs Solar/wind/batteries.
Both actually are very costly. The extraction costs for fossil fuels will continue to rise as the easiest deposits are exhausted. Meanwhile generating vis Green Energy will show a declining long-term cost.
Somewhere out there is the crossover point. Within 10 to 20 years Green wins.
Our USA has abundant sunshine from Abilene to The West Coast. For example Tucson is about to achieve 30% of its electricity from Solar Panels. And that % is expected to increase.
Wind blows all over our Midwest and over Western Deserts. Fairly constant.
Elon is addressing the Lithium problem. We do not have enough, especially here at home. We need more mines, or we need a substitute,
Breaking Big Oil means breaking Russia and The Middle East. National Defense savings?
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I think hydrogen will be there too eventually. EV are the current wave.
It would seem like excess wind and solar could
be used as source for green hydrogen production in places that like proper transmission lines.
From my look at the Texas wind and solar production, I was under the assumption that
curtailments was an issue due to grid congestion . While there is some of that
happening, overall it’s not too bad. Looking at
Jan data, there is only 4-6 hour periods when the equivalent of a nuclear power plant is being
lost. See ercot data here if you want a deeper
dive into Texas curtailments.
" Here is some information regarding the information on curtailment of Wind Generation Resources (WGRs) that may be helpful. ERCOT makes a report on Wind Power Forecasts to the Wholesale Market Working Group (WMWG) which contains information on forecasts along with estimated uncurtailed capacity as well as estimated curtailment MW amounts on an hourly bases. You will need to go to the meeting page for each monthly meeting and look in the files posted at the bottom of the page (KEY DOCUMENTS) and find the files labeled “WindPowerForecastMonthly”. For example, the report from the Jan 28, 2022 is labeled “Wind Power Forecast Monthly December 2021 WMWG” (see sample report below)
Once you find the file and open it, look for the link labeled “HA System-Wide STWPF” for “Hour Ahead System Wide Short Term Wind Power Forecast” and look under the column labeled as “RT Est. Curtailments” for Real-Time Estimated Curtailments. The curtailment amounts are estimated amounts based on forecasts during the hour-ahead period. " :
| Operating Day | Operating Hour | Ercot Load (MW) | STWPF (MW) | Aggr COP (MW) | RT Aggr Wind-Output (MW) | Est. Uncurtailed Output (MW) | RT Est. Curtailments | STWPF Error % (w/ curtailment) | STWPF Error % (w/o curtailment) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2020 | 1 | 43,571.9 | 19,709.8 | 19,608.8 | 16,783.7 | 18,575.9 | 0.0 | 1,792.2 | 3.77% | 9.73% |
| 12/01/2020 | 2 | 43,288.8 | 19,351.3 | 19,300.3 | 16,814.3 | 18,831.8 | 0.0 | 2,017.5 | 1.73% | 8.44% |
| 12/01/2020 | 3 | 43,541.6 | 18,845.9 | 18,792.9 | 16,716.6 | 18,673.8 | 0.0 | 1,957.2 | 0.57% | 7.08% |
| 12/01/2020 | 4 | 44,156.3 | 18,601.4 | 18,551.3 | 16,798.4 | 18,672.6 | 1.0 | 1,874.2 | 0.24% | 6.00% |
| 12/01/2020 | 5 | 45,581.1 | 18,149.9 | 18,086.9 | 16,859.6 | 18,410.9 | 1.0 | 1,551.4 | 0.87% | 4.29% |
| 12/01/2020 | 6 | 48,211.4 | 17,931.2 | 17,879.0 | 16,880.5 | 18,127.2 | 1.0 | 1,246.7 | 0.65% | 3.49% |
| 12/01/2020 | 7 | 51,892.1 | 17,598.1 | 17,546.3 | 16,744.6 | 17,738.8 | 1.0 | 994.2 | 0.47% |
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If they want to make a change with impact, require all new construction and roof replacements to include solar panels.
An easier first step would be to phase out coal. There is plenty of natural gas in the country.
Easier to phase something out if it is not needed.
Natural gas can easily make coal not needed. And we aren’t anywhere close to not needing natural gas in US and won’t be for a long while.
Moving off coal would be a huge first step.
That’s fine. Easy wasn’t my original point. Really nothing to do with it since it would not be easy.
It was simply a comment on getting more “green” energy production that is the political goal of the week. Solar on a house in some cases produces more than the home owner needs some months and that would be a huge impact on the grid power if homes became closer to self sustaining. It would also help balance a pull on the grid if everyone switched to EVs since most EVs are charged in a home. I believe Tesla makes home batteries.