Moving to electric vehicles will dull recessions currently inflated by oil

More correctly blame changing policy around EVs.

Provisions made for its ailing electric vehicle business and related investments, competition from its Chinese rivals, as well as a U.S. tariff impact of 346.9 billion yen weighed on its earnings.

2 Likes

Chris,

The current administration is not providing EVs enough subsidies for the industry to scale, actually, the administration is doing everything it can to hinder scaling - all because of 2 reasons:

  1. Elon’s influence over the government in making sure Tesla remains the dominant EV brand in America (Tesla doesn’t need the subsidies in the same manner as Honda)
  2. Oil and Gas lobbying

No, the government did not subsidize Henry Ford when he started manufacturing cars. Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 with private cash investment from investors and partners. Instead of subsidies, Ford built his empire through private funding and, later, by financing expansion directly from massive profits made on sales of the Model T

Right because it makes total sense to compare the modern economic auto landscape to Henry Ford in 1903

So, you’re saying there would be no electric cars if the government wasn’t involved? That is quite an interesting take.

That’s highly oversimplifying my point.

In order for the EV industry to scale (which essentially means breaching everyday lower to middle class consumers), you need subsidies to kickstart the industry from manufacturing to the point of sale; otherwise, ICE vehicles will continue as the most economic option.

Subsidies are need both for the EVs themselves as well as the infrastructure (scaling of charges both urban and rural).

Currently, EVs have largely penetrated the upper-middle class and above in terms of ownership. It’s the middle class and below that is increasingly adopting EVs but it’s not at the scale we need.

Less pollution from O&G combustion and production is a benefit for everyone and no one owns, as in mineral rights, the sun, the wind or the ocean.

What’s not to like with EVs?

As China and Europe go forward on EVs their cost to purchase will decrease while US consumers will see continued increases in costs to purchase ICE vehicles, mostly due to changing production economies of scale.

This is going to suck.

This observation means not so much,but it is interesting.

In past 1year or so we have driven across most of Arizona, all of New Mexico, and Texas from El Paso to Houston.

Did not see many EV’s. Not on the road,not at Hotels where we spent time traveling. The Hotels have EV charging stations. Mostly unused.

They have not yet achieved much market penetration based on our random observations.

Our monthly gasoline cost has increased about $ 12 since last year. That won’t get us out of our (paid for) ICE vehicle.

Other than at the hotels, I wonder if there is enough charging infrastructure to support cross country ev trips. I know that was a problem at one time, it might not be anymore though if people perceive it to be - they likely won’t use EV on those trips.

O&G deadenders don’t see a threat from BYD and China, so they’ll continue to do what they’ve done.

The rest of us know this is the future. We’ll always need O&G, at least in the next few decades. But we’re gonna get lapped fast by our biggest economic rivals, and we’re doing it to ourselves.

Ford was a major lobbying force in the “Good Roads Movement”, which helped pave roads to make car travel more appealing. He certainly didn’t build those roads.

And let’s not even talk about the actual O&G subsidies the government doles out. They’ve been sucking at the gubmint teat for decades.

But hula hoops, amirite?

1 Like

Yet they are all over Houston. Come to town sometime and you’ll see. It’s impossible to go drive more than 10 minutes and not see one. Multiple more like it.

Some good US news on EVs

https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/cars/2026-cadillac-optiq-review-427bd1fd

Seeing them in a large city is a lot different then seeing them across the highways on cross country trips like he was talking about.

Yes, seeing them in a big city is different. More cars in a big city of course. Pure EVs are only an estimated 1-2% cars on the road after all. But, they are 10% of new sales. They’re coming and it’s a good thing.

1 Like

I guess we know how the gas tax holiday will be paid for. No free lunches.

That feels about right. Maybe a bit high but not crazy.

Average miles driven is ~13K year. Assuming 20 mpg and 18.4 cpg motor fuel tax, that would be $120/year in taxes not being paid by EVs. I do think they should set that at the average though if this is how you want to do it.

Of course, that’s an average and there will be some winners and losers. I’d prefer a mileage tax.

EV owners already have to pay an extra $250 annually in registration fees.

That, supposedly, covers the state fuel tax loss. That seems too high as well.

Mileage based, for both the federal and state portion of the fuel tax, is the
best solution. But may never happen since the flat tax is in place already.

EV takeover in Europe is happening as expected