What stopped the Pac from expanding until now is the fact that Texas and OU were possibilities. You don’t move to take someone else while those two are on the table and might consider you.
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Nailed it TMoar.
Now that the Texas and Oklahoma possibilty is off the table, the Pac12 has to move fast while it has an opportunity to get some other Texas schools as they are available now before its TV contract negotiations in 2023.
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Nobody adds $30M per year value not named Texas or OU. From the perspective of fans, this seems like a cool idea. From the perspective of the accountants, expansion costs more than it brings, as ESPN, Fox, or Raycom (lol) is not going to add another $160M annually to a TV deal for UH, TT, OSU, and Pick One.
I want to go to the PAC. Probability isn’t zero, but it is close. We reached for the brass ring and missed. Now let’s concentrate on beating our G5(6) peers.
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I AM NOT A FAN OF THE CALIF PEOPLE OR THEIR
POLITICS. I HAVE ENJOYED TRIPS THERE IN THE
PAST , BUT WAY BEFORE THEIR PRESENT DAY.
DO WE FIT, NOT FOR ME. I WOULD JOIN THEM
BUT NOT MY KIND OF PEOPLE. THEY HAVE TAKEN
A GREAT PLACE AND TURNED IT INTO A SWAMP.
I COULD STAND THEM IF WE WHIPED THEIR BUTT MOST OF THE TIME. TELLING IT LIKE IT
IS.
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If the pac remains at 12 then their new contract will be between 35m and 40m per team while sec and big are getting 100m+ per team
Why wouldn’t the Pac 12 and Big 10 merge and flip a middle finger to the SEC. you want Big, here we will give you Big. Plus we will be academically oriented as opposed to you toothless shoeless rubes.
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Half the pac are R1 but not AAU.
I live in PAC 12 country. And agree with comments about Calif. lifestyle, etc.
There are little to no comments in the Media about expanding the Conference. Would they like more $money? Sure.
Last I read the Athletic deficit at U. of Arizona is $18 million annually. That includes the debacle of the Kevin Sumlin era. The UH deficit is $47 million per year. Just compare.
I predict no PAC 12 expansion. They are happy with current rivalries and adding Texas schools would not mean much.
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Our deficit is 47m with ESPN paying 7m. If we were getting 30m our deficit would be 17m. Is the pac going to be OK with getting 60m or more less than sec and big?
OldTime, they have no choice other than to squeeze streaming fees, etc. The PAC wanted to expand when UT and OU were the primary targets (TT and OSU would be added to make the deal work for the primary targets). TT and OSU by themselves don’t bring real value. Competitive programs, sure they do, but if the UT/OU move doesn’t convince the whole world of fandom that money drives the process…
Expansion adds not a single dollar to the PAC payouts per team. If OSU and TT are worth $30M each joining the PAC, why aren’t they worth $30M each by becoming the big dogs in the new Big 12?
Then the pac will be the next conference to calapse. With current payout differences Ican see USC and Stanford going to the BIG.
OldTime, if expansion costs more money than it brings in, how does that save the PAC? If the TV deal they negotiate next year stinks, then the B1G would be happy to welcome USC, Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado. Because they hold all the value, just like UT and OU hold the value in the Big 12. Only in the SEC and B1G is there more value parity, at least at the top of the conference.
I still think the ACC is more vulnerable to be torn apart than the PAC. The GOR is helpful for now but if UT/OU leave immediately it might show the true buyout number for a GOR or even how to beat it in court. If that happens, I could see Clemson/Florida St going SEC and Virginia/North Carolina going BIG. Even if the PAC makes far less money, they could stay as the clear #3 conference. 3 main conferences makes more sense to me than 4 based off geography and current membership. The ACC and Big 12 re-builds make up a 2nd tier and then the remaining conferences are 3rd tier.
Or maybe I am trying to force something that makes more sense regionally. There would be no overlap in the top 3 conferences and all major markets covered.
The rumor is that the Big 10 will take 5 schools from the pac 12 and Kansas
So is this about the networks overpaying with the last contracts so some of the conferences are taking paycuts?
Or is it NIL driven where the more a team is seen the higher the potential NILs thus its a recruiting thing?
Something like this:
2 20 School Power Conferences
SEC
ALABAMA
ARKANSAS
OLE MISS
MISSISSIPPI STATE
TENNESSEE
VANDERBILT
LSU
KENTUCKY
TEXAS A&M
FLORIDA
MISSOURI
SOUTH CAROLINA
GEORGIA
AUBURN
TEXAS
OKLAHOMA
CLEMSON
NORTH CAROLINA
FLORIDA STATE
VIRGINIA
B1G
INDIANA
MARYLAND
MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN STATE
OHIO STATE
PENN STATE
RUTGERS
ILLINOIS
IOWA
MINNESOTA
NEBRASKA
NORTHWESTERN
PURDUE
WISCONSIN
KANSAS
WASHINGTON
USC
ARIZONA OR UTAH
OREGON OR COLORADO
STANFORD OR UCLA
INDEPENDENT
NOTRE DAME
BYU
The reason they are $60 million behind SEC is no one is central time zone wants to watch a kick off at 9:00, let alone 10:00 on the east coast. The west coast teams need to play occasionally in central time zone for people to watch, and interest and money will increase.
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Contracts with conferences are based on cable/satellite/streaming subscriber base plus the rates ESPN or Fox or CBS can get for selling ads. Lots of advertising dollars have fled TV for the internet, so selling ads for lots of money means guaranteeing lots of eyeballs.
The SEC guarantees that. The B1G guarantees that. They are valuable because their games will sell ads for good rates. The ACC is locked in until 2035. The PAC deal expires in 2024. It will probably not grow by much, maybe even shrink. With ESPN spending elsewhere, the bidders won’t have much competition. No teams not going to the SEC or already in the B1G guarantee enough eyeballs to add to the TV deal.
I am tired of hearing about “value”. The PAC is in serious trouble and falling behind. WHY? What do they need? They need big markets and eyeballs in central time zone that they can add…Thats Houston. Thats TCU…whoever else is their choice…Stop acting like they are going to do nothing…THAT would be allowing themselves to fall further and further behind and eventually force some of their members to switch conferences.
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Having fan bases in the central time zone also will increase viewership of those late night games. Whether thier team is playing or not.