Predicting the National Champ

Cougar Basketball
1

The last 19 national champions have all been ranked in the top 12 in their respective season’s Week 6 AP poll.

23 of the last 24 National Champs finished Top 25 in both offense and defense KenPom efficiency.

Week 6 AP Top 12 (bold currently meets both criteria)

1. Arizona
2. Kansas - 27th offense, 26th defense
3. Purdue
4. Houston
5. UConn - 29th defense
6. Baylor - 59th defense
7. Marquette - 37th offense
8. Creighton - 42nd offense
9. North Carolina
10. Gonzaga - 32nd defense
11. Oklahoma - 47th offense
12. Tennessee

Current odds
Purdue 7.5 to 1
UConn 9.5 to 1
Houston 10 to 1
Arizona 11 to 1
UNC 15 to 1
Kentucky 15 to 1
Auburn 15 to 1
Tennessee 17 to 1
Duke 25 to 1
Alabama 25 to 1
Kansas 25 to 1

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2

I like UK other than UH.

3

#1 D vs #1 O

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4

I think the top 8 there are the most realistic and most likely Champions. I don’t think Kansas or Duke are national championship level this year.

I would think that in this order Purdue, UConn, UNC, and Kentucky are the top 4 favorites right now

I think the next 4 in order would be Tennessee, Houston, Auburn, Arizona.

Houston and Tennessee feel really neck and neck. They could play 100 times and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was split 50/50

Auburn is really good and they’re really hot right now. But can they play at the same level in March? Pearl has had some teams that fall off a bit at the end of the season.

Arizona has shown to play like the best team in the country. But they’re sliding right now. Look soft on defense and turnover heavy

So much of it is dependent on matchups though. If it was Purdue vs. UConn for the national Championship I would have Purdue winning. But if it was Purdue vs. Kentucky, I would have Kentucky winning.

5

People dog us for our schedule but as of right now here are the 8 teams you listed in order of top 50 wins.

8 Purdue
6 UConn and Arizona
5 Houston
3 UNC, Tennessee, and Kentucky
1 Auburn

Auburn’s best win is a home game vs Aggy.

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6

Who’s dogging us for our schedule? We have played 6 quad 1 games so far and 2 quad 2s. While not the absolute hardest it’s no joke. I have seen our SOS played so far as high as 9th. I’ve seen our non conference SOS ranked anywhere from 35-55 which is still pretty good. Not sure why anyone would be dogging out schedule

7

Haters don’t use those rankings. They use the subjective ones that say we have only played 1 top 25 team, #25 tech.

The next two weeks will change the dialogue by one group or the other.

Either way, we’ll be in good shape.

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8

I thought Auburn was a little fraudulent last year, but from what I’ve seen, they’re much better this year. That being said, I operate on vibes and know nothing definitively, so :person_shrugging:

9

Half of our fan base does, too which is ignorant lol.

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10

Watch for Kentucky and UCONN

11

Pulling for the Coogs in the FF, but if not, I have UNC, Kentucky, UCONN and Tennessee

12

If it’s not UH, I want it to be a non-blue blood, mid-major.

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13

So is Kentucky a lock now just because of this new kid who has played two or three games?

14

He’s only played a half a game, but they have some issues on defense and some inexperience (with a couple experienced dudes), so far from a :lock:

15

Just like CKS teams, Calipari teams get better in March. Look for Kentucky to be a beast with this guy.

16

They haven’t really the last three years, but this is a more typical Cal team with younger one-and-done’s so I think you’re right this year.

17

Well, people are talking about them as if they are. I saw someone post on here a day or two ago that “We can’t beat them. I don’t think anybody can” or something like that. Lol Let’s play out the season.

18

Kentucky has been looking absolutely ridiculous the last couple weeks. Same with UNC. I don’t trust Rick Barnes in March, it’s just a good policy to have.

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19

Just to be honest…with Arcenaux out and Roberts pretty frail I would not give us much of a chance this year.
Whoever is the healthiest and hottest have the best chance.
That doesn’t rule us completely out of the picture but it’s getting blurry.
We need to start winning some road games so hopefully tonight we get that start

20

I would say UK’s offense has been ridiculous, but the defense has giving up 90+ to a$m (L) and Georgia. Fun to watch tho.

Will have to see if they can slow down Meechie (sp?) from S.Carolina tonight.

It would be very interesting to see our lockdown D against UK. Hopefully deep in tourney if it happens.

2 Likes