That should put a damper on the UK talk for a little bit
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SEC is similar to B12, it is tough to win on the road. Kentucky will be tough.
Noticed an interesting phenomenon. It’s not perfect, but I’ll be using it in filling in my brackets.
Turns out the 11-16 seeds winning first round games usually have good to great regular season records against the spread, at least since 2017 when I have data. Meaning these teams perform beyond expectations most of the time, so it should not surprise if they exceed expectations in the tournament vs their seed.
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If it comes down to us vs Kentucky I want them ranked higher. We almost always over-perform when we’re the underdog, although that wouldn’t guarantee it. I should say I want them favored.
UCONN remains strong, they would be my national champ pick.
worried about the coogs. if they dont finish the big12 strong, could cost them in seeding and having a tougher road.
I’ll eliminate them. Its hard to go back to back. Plus they lost some big weapons to the NBA.
Purdue has questions, too when the game gets more intense. Foul trouble to Eddy and thats it.
Per Torvik, this is the effective field goal % of the last 15 national champions:
| Team | Year | EFG% |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas | 2008 | 56.6 |
| North Carolina | 2009 | 52.8 |
| Duke | 2010 | 50.5 |
| UCONN | 2011 | 48.2 |
| Kentucky | 2012 | 53.8 |
| Louisville | 2013 | 50.6 |
| UCONN | 2014 | 51.5 |
| Duke | 2015 | 56.6 |
| Villanova | 2016 | 56.1 |
| North Carolina | 2017 | 51.7 |
| Villanova | 2018 | 59.5 |
| Virginia | 2019 | 55.2 |
| Baylor | 2021 | 56.5 |
| Kansas | 2022 | 53.8 |
| UCONN | 2023 | 53.9 |
Our effective field goal % up to this point is 49.9%
Only 1 team has won with a worse EFG% than UH
This is our worst EFG% since the 2019-2020 season. The Elite 8 year back in 2022 we were at 53.1%
Without looking, I’ll bet that our margin between effective field goal % and effective field goal % allowed is higher than every one of those teams.
Two things to remember.
-
our FG% may be a little lower then most of these past Ntl Champs, however we are (and have been) a really good offensive rebounding team which gives us more FG opportunities then our opponents and
-
our Defense is elite and thus our FG % may be a little lower compared to past champions, but our opponents struggle way more then we do (% wise).
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Good points. I’m not trying to downplay this team or anything like that. I’m just trying to find trends of past national champs and how I can correlate/relate them to this years team.
I’ll keep posting as I find interesting stuff, but all things considered this team is right there.
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I think this is our best shot. Theres no “team to beat” this year like there have been in previous years. Of course anything can happen, we could lose to a 16 seed as easily as we can go all the way
The current team is always our best shot
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This year’s team definitely has a much better chance than last year’s team
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I predict HOUSTON.
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WAAAAAY better
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Top 3 athletic teams are UCONN, UH and Tennessee (who has the second coming of Larry Bird)
What a surprise 
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I watched Knecht in person at UNC earlier this year… BALLER.
Dude is averaging 30 ppg, can make any shot. Definate Bird vibes.
Larry Bird? 
guess that never came to mind for me. DK seems more athletic to the hoop / finish, and I think Bird was like three inches taller.
I’m not much of a student of the nba, but maybe a comp that’s newer than 30 / 40 years?