The Matchup: Florida vs Houston For A National Title

Florida Gators Team Preview

The Last One - For History
michael-scott

Roster Lookup

Starters

  • Walter Clayton Jr. - 6-2 - SR - 18.1 ppg, 4.2 ast, 38.5% 3PT, 32.5 mpg
  • Alijah Martin - 6-2 - SR - 14.5 ppg, 4.6 reb, 35.0% 3PT, 30.1 mpg
  • Will Richard - 6-5 - SR - 13.3 ppg, 4.4 reb, 35.7% 3PT, 31.4 mpg
  • Alex Condon - 6-11 230lbs - SO - 10.8 ppg, 7.7 reb, 33.9% 3PT (19 Made), 24.9 mpg
  • Rueben Chinyelu - 6-11 255lbs - SO - 6.1 ppg, 6.5 reb, 0.0% 3PT, 18.9 mpg

Bench

  • Thomas Haugh - 6-9 210lbs - SO - 9.8 ppg, 6.1 reb, 35.1% 3PT (34 made), 24.4 mpg
  • Denzel Aberdeen - 6-5 - JR - 7.9 ppg, 1.8 reb, 36.0% 3PT, 19.9 mpg
  • Micah Handlogten - 7-1 235lbs - JR - 2.9 ppg, 5.1 reb, N/A 3PT, 9.9 mpg
  • Sam Alexis - 6-9 - JR - 4.7 ppg, 3.5 reb, 20.0% 3PT, 11.9 mpg

Strengths

  1. Elite Scoring & Efficiency:
  • Ranked 3rd nationally in points per game (85.4) with a balanced attack.
  • High shooting efficiency: 55.1% eFG% (31st), 56.2% 2P% (25th), and 35.7% 3P% (70th).
  • Walter Clayton Jr. is a star scorer (18.1 ppg, 38.5% 3PT) and clutch free-throw shooter (86.5% FT).
  1. Dominant Rebounding:
  • #3 in total rebounds/game (41.9) and offensive rebounds (12.4/game).
  • Alex Condon (7.7 reb) and Rueben Chinyelu (6.5 reb) anchor the frontcourt.
  1. Stingy Perimeter Defense:
  • Hold opponents to 28.6% 3PT shooting (6th nationally).
  • Force opponents into inefficient shots: 45.5% Opp eFG% (5th).
  1. Depth & Versatility:
  • Bench contributors like Thomas Haugh (9.8 ppg, 6.1 reb) provide scoring and energy.

Weaknesses

  1. Turnovers & Ball Security:
  • 10.9 turnovers/game (ranked 106th), with starters like Clayton (2.4 TOV) prone to mistakes.
  1. Foul Prone:
  • 17.3 personal fouls/game (219th), risking free-throw opportunities for opponents.
  1. Defensive Rebounding Lapses:
  • Allow 9.8 offensive rebounds/game to opponents (319th), giving second-chance points.
  1. Inconsistent Steals & Perimeter Creation:
  • Only 7.4 steals/game (97th), lacking disruptive backcourt play.

Houston vs. Florida: For a National Championship

Rebounding Wars Incoming

This one’s going to be a battle on the boards. Florida crashes the offensive glass hard, and so do we. Both teams pride themselves on dominating second-chance opportunities, and neither will want to give an inch on the defensive glass. It’s going to be physical, it’s going to be gritty, and it’s going to matter.

Florida’s key board crasher is Rueben Chinyelu—a 6’11” forward with a ridiculous 7’8” wingspan. He’s not just a rebounder himself, but a box-out machine who clears lanes for others. He’s built like a stronger, less agile version of Tugler. The matchup down low will be intense.

However, Chinyelu is foul-prone. If we can draw some early fouls and he has to sit, we should have a huge edge in physicality and control the paint.


Foul Trouble Watch

Both teams are foul-prone. The whistle could change everything. Will the refs let them play? Will it be favorable to 1 team or another? The way this game is called could tilt the balance in either direction.


Their Offense vs. Our Defense

Offensive Style
Florida has a young coach runs a modern, analytics-heavy offensive system that favors 4-out or 5-out spacing. Most of their shots come from deep or in the paint—very little midrange. They rely on tempo to score, though not as extreme as teams like Arizona or Gonzaga.

But here’s the deal: everyone has had to play at our pace. You don’t run against Houston. They grind. And when they grind, we thrive.

Key Players & Matchups

  • Walter Clayton Jr. is their offensive engine. He’s a legit iso scorer and shooter—dangerous. How do we handle him? It’s a tough task, but we’ve handled elite guards before (Javon Small, for example). Our defense is elite for a reason.
  • The other guards (two starters + backup Aberdeen) are confident catch-and-shoot threats from three, but rarely shoot off the dribble. They all sit around 35% from deep (passable not great) and love to drive when there’s a clean lane.
  • Chinyelu is raw offensively—he’s mostly a lob threat and someone we should double with our traps. Condon and Haugh, on the other hand, are skilled passers and can shoot. They are mismatch threats that can post up on small players, or shoot open 3s. But I feel we can trust Jwan and Tugler to guard them one-on-one if we are forced out of the monster and play strict man to man (especially if they are both in).
  • Florida is also semi-turnover-prone (give up 10 per game, #106) and just an average passing team ranked ~#144 nationally in assist rate.
  • Once we take away their pace, I think we can defend most of everything they do, IMO the offense then likely becomes “Walter Clayton and hope.”

If Clayton scores 24 on 7-for-18 shooting, we’ll live with that (good totals but bad percentages). Just don’t let him catch fire efficiency-wise.


Their Defense vs. Our Offense

Florida has length in the paint and high-motor perimeter defenders. They’re not overly complex schematically but play hard and tall.

Offensive Opportunities:

  • Look for us to attack Walter Clayton on defense—he’s not terrible, but he’s the weakest perimeter defender. We’ll likely try to get Milos or LJ to attack that matched up
  • All other perimeter defenders on Florida are great athletic defenders, with great wingspans, but i think we can find room off them through screens.
  • Florida loves to help especially attacking the post, so good ball movement should create open looks.
  • In the post, they rely on a “wall-up” strategy when defending the postup—standing tall with their hands-up rather than chasing blocks. If Jwan or Tugler can shoot over the trees, those shots will be there.
  • Obviously looking for 2nd chance points

Game Outlook/Prediction

This is a strong matchup for us. Florida is elite, but we’ve matched up well with teams like this all season:

:white_check_mark: We kill pace.
:white_check_mark: Their center isn’t a scoring threat, so we can trap freely.
:white_check_mark: They allow some offensive boards.
:white_check_mark: Most of their guards aren’t self-creators as shooters.
:white_check_mark: They’re semi-ly turnover-prone.
:white_check_mark: They haven’t seen our system and have 1 days time to prep.

BUT… this is March (in April). The officiating (Foul trouble), a surprise shooting night (like Miami a few years ago), or dominant second-chance scoring from Florida could flip the script.

Still—I like our chances. I’ll take Coogs by 5.


Final Note

What. A. Season.

So many people doubted us. How do you lose just one player from the #2 KenPom team and still get written off? I’ve been saying all year and preseason—this is a special team and that i thought we could win the national title, BUT its actually crazy and emotional to see that it might actually happen .

We started playing basketball in 1945. Eighty years later, we’re right here. A chance

This team… man, This is a TEAM OF DESTINY.

Let’s finish the job. And then next year? We run it back.

Go Coogs. :paw_prints::basketball:

75 Likes

So this plays RIGHT into our hands

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Plus fortune owes us one right? Florida’s got a couple nattys in the time since that loss to NC State that we still carry around. If the basketball gods are just and fair* we finally deserve this right?

*they are not

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96 years of playing hs football and my Ganado football team finally won state in December. I was the color commentator. I felt then and do now that it’s finally time we bring home that elusive ring at UH.

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Vegas line is in we are a -1.5 underdog.

That’s absurd.

This game is a coin flip. Being dogs in this is no surprise to me. They have two terrifying player archetypes that have given Sampson teams hell in the past. Martin and Clayton are athletic, quick as a hiccup, and will stress our defense out. 1.5 isn’t surprising. Florida can really hoop.

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Thanks for the summary!!! When did you find the time to write all this?? My brain still just waking up from yesterday

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If we can beat Duke we can beat Florida!

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Great write up.

More concerned about our legs. Cryer didn’t sit, Juwan was on his feet entire game.

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Burning the midnight oil! Couldn’t sleep after the win. Watched some postgame podcast and typed this

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This is good. Vegas needs to make money.

We will see.

My thought is that these guys are all young and the game is not today.

I also think that nobody on the team is going to think about any such excuses.

Fingers crossed!

Here’s our biggest advantage!

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Florida got blown out by Tennessee. Hou can handle Florida if they can do their game.

This will be the 8th top 10 offense we’ve seen (note we’re also a top 10 offense).

I mean, yes, at Tennessee they got blown out by 20. But also at home they blew out Tennessee by 30 :man_shrugging:

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They had 3 players who played 35 minutes as well. Not sure there’s a massive advantage on their part here. I guess they got like 3 hours more rest :man_shrugging:

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Transitive property does not work at this stage. Florida has beaten Auburn and Alabama, two teams we lost to. None of those games mean anything right now. We can beat them though.

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