So we know that Television Networks are running the show behind CFB. We know the more familiar conferences such as SEC, ACC, AAC, and half of the B12 fall under ESPN. We know the B10, PAC 12, and half of the B12 fall under FOX. I won’t include MWC, CUSA nor The others because they are irrelevant.
Now what if FOX goes over to the remaining B12 teams and informs them to remain together because the commissioner messed things up with ESPN. They can see this as an opportunity and it could potentially be the jackpot for them. FOX tells them to get some teams possibly BYU, UH, Cinci, UCF, USF, and maybe a Boise St to become 14. The payout may not be as good as the $37 mil they receive right now but it would remain in the $20’s with a Conference Network (maybe partner with a streaming network) like the B10 and PAC. FOX would now have sole network control over the B12 now competing with ESPN with the big boy conferences.
FOX: B10, PAC12, B12
ESPN: SEC, ACC, AAC, MAC, part of Sunbelt
CBS: MWC, CUSA, part of Sunbelt
ESPN has a six month head start on everyone else’s plan at this point so hard to know the next move. ESPN could go to ACC and ask them to absorb WVU and pay for the move. ESPN then tells AAC to sit tight to see if they can raid a 7 team BIG12. I do think ESPN has a plan and it will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Especially, if OU and UT think they are playing in the SEC in 2022. This means it would have to happen in the next 2-3 months.
Fox’s play would be to get the Big 12 to take the top 4 teams from AAC (my guess is $12-15M). AAC would be garbage then which hurts ESPN. No doubt Big12 is hoping that Fox is going to swoop in and save them. ESPNs play is to kill the Big12 and fold some teams into AAC along with moderate raise to that conference. Interesting to see how it shakes out. Despite what some existing Big12 teams think, I think either ESPN or Fox would insist we get included with best of Big12 teams once shakeup happens. I think there is a strong possibility that the little8 drag this out and do nothing (live in denial) and milk out as much money as they can from ESPN and OU/UT whilst also individually hoping they get the call to another P5 conference. I feel this could drag out several years based on that alone.
One constant with the Big XII since its inception has been to
defer to Texas and OU’s wishes with absolute submission.
fail to think long term.
With Texas and OU departing, the fact remains that under the by-laws they can still vote on decisions made by the conference. One assumes they will vote against anything that dilutes their income unless it is traded for forgiveness of some or all the exit fees, So if history is our guide, if UT and OU stay in for two years and negotiate an exit after the 2022 season, the remaining schools will do nothing that transpires until the 2023 season.
To expand requires a 3/4 vote = 7 teams. If UT and OU vote “no” until they leave or negotiate the
ir exit, it means 7 of the remaining 8 would have to be in lockstep agreement as to the expansion and who is invited. That was the problem in 2016. No proposed new member had the support of more than 5-6 schools. With the exception of UT (who supposedly sponsored UH) the remaining Texas schools (TT, BU and TCU) all opposed UH. BYU had the support of WVa and several others in the northern part of the conference, but not enough. Ditto with Cinncy and Memphis.
The only way the Big 12 can expand is to take at least 4 schools from the pool of BYU, Cinncy, UH, Memphis, UCF, USF and Boise State, A smarter move would be 6 if the networks will allow it. If only two schools are invited it will be a bandaid on a festering wound. The conference would be set up for eventual failure.
The only way for college football to remain what we all love about it is for real media diversification. The rodent having a monopoly over college football spells the end of it as we all know it.
The last thing that the rodent wants to see is for the small12 to get UH and UCF.
Getting both impedes their newly redesigned empire.
The greater Houston area has millions of eye balls.
UH has decades of history with most of the small12 schools. Thus generating an immediate fan response. Many family members have gone to these schools. This what college football is all about. Having this renewed rivalry will be a major boost for all. The last thing that the rodent want to see happen is the Houston greater area taking eye balls away from the utau pimp and atm. The same can be said in Florida.
The rodent does not want to share its cheese. This is why rodent’s aresco is doing what he is doing.
You can’t stand what the rodent is doing to college football?
Support UH going into the small12…for now. The PAC IMO is our best long term interest.
I wouldn’t count on the Big 12 receiving in the $20M per year even if they beef up with bigger market universities like UC, UH, UCF, USF, SMU, etc. The projections have been that the Big 12 Leftovers generated anywhere from 25% to 50% (MAX) of the Big 12 broadcasting contract. The Big 12 Leftovers lose a lot with the Whorns and OU leaving. Who really gives a crap about them after the Whorns and OU leave? Plus, under your scenario they have damaged their relationship with ESPN. With no competition, Fox can low ball the next contract. Competition drives market pricing. No competition drops it significantly.
I would expect their next Big 12 contract if they are still around is closer to $15M per year than $20M plus.
I see where you got your $15. Of course that’s why adding BYU is a no brainer. They have a great follow and last i checked add $6 a $10 mil a year to that. Then UH, Cinci, UCF, USF, Boise St should be able to bring some positive to the table. the current little 8 (based on what Bowlsby’s $14 = 1.74 mil. Which makes me think, will BYU be like UT (a diva)?
I don’t get the fixation for Boise State. It’s a tiny school out in the middle of nowhere (think of the winters ) with a tiny base, mediocre at best academics, and worst of all, a blue football field.
They had a nice win over OU but that was long ago.
There is a way…they can influence 4 Big 12 schools into P5 conferences and they would have the 6 votes needed to disband the conference…pretty simple really.
BYU would be a big fish. We don’t know their broadcast contract, but they are in ESPNs camp which makes them more probable for the AAC then Big 12 which is good for us.
You fail to understand the football history of Boise. And their national following is quite large. Boise can sell their gear in every major metropolitan area in the country.
Yea. They sell their stadium no problem and they have lots of t-shirt fans. I think they are popular as a sort of anti-establishment personality. I know I usually end up rooting for them. Maybe that’s why.
My next door neighbor in New Braunfels played for them in the 90’s. He told me that, as a Mormon, it was one of the few major programs (Air Force being another) where things were done orderly and without a lot of window dressing. He said it was kinda quiet up there…even during football season.
The AAC certainly has approached them before, actually a couple times. The AAC just didn’t try to schedule with them last year after the PAC cancelled their season and BYU was looking for games. It certainly wasn’t because the AAC are nice people and they were trying to be charitable to a football program in need of games. It appears that the AAC commish believe its worth the investment.
) with a tiny base, mediocre at best academics, and worst of all, a blue football field.