You don’t know what to tell me?
Fine.
Then simply don’t tell me something that’s baloney.
NO CONFERENCE ever has five teams in the national title conversation, which is what it would take for the P2 to get 9 teams in.
Conferences rarely have more than three teams in the conversation.
1/16 is WAAAAAYYY better than 0/132
That’s clearly incorrect.
Just this past season, the (new) SEC had six (6) teams which would have qualified for the 12 team playoff; while the (new) B1G had four (4) teams which would have qualified as well:
SEC:
#3 Texas
#4 Georgia
#5 Alabama
#8 Missouri
#9 Ole Miss
#12 LSU
B1G:
#1 Michigan
#2 Washington
#6 Oregon
#10 Ohio State
I think that this will likely become the new normal.
[NOTE: The (new) Big12 only had one team - #11 Arizona - that might have made the cut.]
Those teams weren’t all in the conversation.
Only the top three from each were.
Mizzou was not.
Nor were Ole Miss or LSU.
No.
In the new 12 team playoff format, nine (9) of those B1G/SEC teams would have been invited into the playoffs, and therefore they would have been in the “conversation.” And I think it’s safe to assume that this will be the new normal.
Not necessarily in the future though.
Oregon’s record might not have been as good in the B1G. It might not be next year due to the step up in competition.
Washington is going into Spring training with only two starters returning.
They won’t be in the conversation. Major rebuilding year.
Adding UT and OU means that one or more of last year’s SEC teams on the list could be pushed further down. All SEC teams could have more losses.
As I said, that’s the problem with adding too many top teams.
They end up beating each other and cannibalizing/sabotaging each other’s records and playoff resumes.
In the end, no more than three will be in the conversation.
They might get four in during a really exceptional year.
But 8-9 total?
No.
In 2023, the SEC/B1G (P2) Alliance had 9 of the top 10 ranked teams in the nation (with only Florida State able to slip in @ #6) and 10 of the top 12.
So it’s no wonder that FSU is trying so hard to move into a P2 conference. If it weren’t for the fact that there will be 3 other conference champions getting automatic invites, based on last year’s rankings, the SEC/B1G Alliance would have gotten 10 of the 12 playoff invites. I think that the P2 will expect to get no less than 8-9 playoff invites a year…or they will blow up/reformat the system. It’s all about the $$$.
ND will get 1 spot and the sec and big10 will beat each other more
Each yr is different, here’s an example
You’re being extremely naive here. Go look at the CFP rankings.
If I’m wrong, I’ll eat crow.
But as of now I’m not seeing it.
To get 9 teams in, as I said, ALL at-large bids would have to go to the P2, and with the newly added P2 teams beating and cannibalizing each other, I’m not seeing enough teams with good enough records.
As I stated before, if ND finishes with 10 or more wins, the CFP will be hard pressed for viewership/ratings reasons to give them an at large. And suppose a Big 12 team has a perfect record and beats a 12-1 team in the title game. I see both of those Big 12 teams getting in over a 10-2 aTm or other SEC team.
The SEC and B1G will get three teams in; more than any other conferences.
But they won’t get ALL of the at larges. No conference ever has that many teams in the national title conversation.
That’s why going to 12 teams was stupid to begin with.
Another yr here shows p2 not taking all spots
You need to look at rankings before the CFP
None of this even matters in the long run. This new CFP system is merely a temporary placeholder system until the next major wave of realignment in 2030-2031. It’s all just going to change again to favor the P2.
UH just needs to worry about trying to win and win and win. Who cares what teams or how many teams from each conference get bids into the CFP.
Just win Coogs
That new wave of realignment may occur sooner than that if FSU figures a way out of the ACC, simply because if they can, then so can other ACC schools.
We’ll see.
Yep. Seems to me that this overexpansion will result in a dilution of certain teams that in previous years had pretty good records (think Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri in the SEC, and Penn State and, sadly, my Hawkeyes in the BIG). Those teams will beat each other up so much that unless the CFP lets in a couple of 4 loss SEC and BIG teams, I just don’t see more than 3 teams from each of the BIG and SEC getting in regularly.
Well if they figure a way out, I hope the rest of the ACC teams intend to leave follow suit just to get this all finally over with
They are already talking 14 starting in 2026 lol! I predicted it a while back and will continue to do so, it won’t happen by 2026 but the BIG and SEC are going to go to NFL style divisions (4 each) where their division winners get auto bids. 2 Big 12 teams, 2 ACC teams, top G5, then top ranked team left. If they go to 16 it becomes top 3 ranked teams left. The BIG/SEC division structure with auto bids makes tons and tons of games matter in the BIG and SEC which means more $ for them. For example, no one really cared about an 8-3 Iowa vs 9-2 Wisconsin before but if their last game is to win their division and get a playoff spot then it becomes much more ‘must watch’, etc…
Personally I think the sweet spot for NCAA football is a 16 team playoff with 8 division winners from SEC/BIG, 2 ACC, 2 Big 12, 1 G5, 3 at large. The top 8 ranked teams of these 11 will get the top 8 seeds and host an opening round playoff: 8 BIG/SEC pod winners, Big 12 champ, ACC champ, or top ranked G5. Quarterfinals is home game for top ranked teams left in their part of bracket. Then semis and finals are neutral site (Rose Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Orange Bowl, Jerry’s World, etc…). You’d still have some normal one off bowl games to fill out the tv schedule just like now.
There will be 9-3 teams making it into the playoff from the BIG and SEC all day every day. If they go undefeated in non-conference or maybe 1 loss, which most contenders in those conferences will, in a 16+ team conference more than just 3 teams will only lose 0, 1, 2, or 3 conference games and get a 9-3 or better record. 12 new BIG/SEC teams last year won 9+. Maybe that drops to 9 or 10 with increased internal competition or maybe it doesn’t even drop that many. But 3 per conference for only 6 being deemed playoff worthy which, like I said like it or not, will be 9 wins typically? No way. This is just a pure football take propping up the SEC/BIG dominance argument and doesn’t even consider they have all the leverage and want to horde the $. They will get 7-9 in the playoff every year as long as it is 12 teams.
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