Seriously, there was about 2 minutes, maybe, of useful information agonizingly stretched over 20.
Reminded me of those cheesy extended fake prank videos I see on FB.
That’s my thinking. Fed is going to raise. On top of that, they started QT. So yeah, I’m not optimistic on the market right now
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Thanks for that clarification. Those types of intra recession rallies are too risky for me to try to hit.
I’m not a day trader type. But acknowledge there is some money to be made there.
This New York Fed model says the U.S. economy will contract this year, as well as next. The New York Fed model assigns an 80% probability to a hard landing.
Right, a recession is 2 successive quarters of GDP
contraction. So technically we are not there yet. No doubt there is anxiety and concern of seeing a recession later this year. Personally I’d put it at 50:50
and the severity and length are all debatable. Not
really personally overly concerned, and viewing it is a great opportunity. But, I also realize we are all in
a different place, and it can cause great grief and stress for those that lose their jobs. That sucks.
I’m thinking there may be more a period of stubborn
inflation but employment holding up reasonably well.
Data on the 29th should help clarify what the path is.
Recession is more nuanced than just 2 consecutive quarters. That’s the typical duration but not always. The pandemic caused a recession without it for example.
There are 3 “D’s” - depth, duration, and diffusion.
I’m not talking duration. I’m talking definition.
What nuanced definition of a recession do you
subscribe to ?
In the United States, it is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales”.[3] In the United Kingdom, it is defined as a negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.[4][5]
If that were the definition, last year wouldn’t have been a recession. But it was.
Again , please provide your definition and source.
The NBER makes the call.
“However, in deciding whether to identify a recession, the committee weighs the depth of the contraction, its duration, and whether economic activity declined broadly across the economy (the diffusion of the downturn)," the release said.
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Commodities have started into the ditch led by copper.
2 quarters is for the evening news.
Whatever happens I am hoping for the housing market to switch and maybe pick up some discounted stocks. Times like these remind me of a saying my mom has, its old and very Polish so keep that in mind, “Rich or poor, its good to have money”.
Radney Foster’s “Foldin Money”
Thanks but Per your article:
Conventionally, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, which this recession met after the first quarter in 2020 fell 5%. But the NBER noted that in normal times, a recession lasts “more than a few months.”
And this
“The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.”
The pandemic recession was unique in a number of ways, not least how fast the contraction happened and how ferocious the recovery was.
Yes. Just saying it’s not always as simple as two consecutive quarters, even if that is typical.
Recession - Your neighbor loses his job
Depression - You lose your job
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True, we all lose our jobs = Dr Fauci
Well this is mostly bad news for those looking to profit in equities market due to recession.
Which way we headed ? Watch out for the trees or you may miss the forest ?
There’s some inflation behind the increase in orders, but, nevertheless, there are a lot of dollars flowing through the economy right now," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS in New York. “Businesses would not order new equipment if they thought consumers and other companies were looking to pull back their purchases.”
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Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 0.5% last month. These so-called core capital goods orders gained 0.3% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders would climb 0.3%.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-core-capital-goods-orders-increase-solidly-may-2022-06-
Investment advise is so hard to give. A lot depends on your level of risk and time. I know folks that lost 40% in 2007-2008 and had it all back two years later. Minus the interest they would have made had they not lost it. I like to see what folks are doing weather that’s my patients or friends if the convo comes up i’ll ask their thoughts. I have a lot of older friends and have noticed that folks over 60 have started moving completely out of equities or reducing their stock holdings to just 20-35%, were they move it is completely all over the place. I have a friend that’s in his mid seventies. He was losing 4,000 - 5,000 dollars a day on his investments and he decided to get out and move everything into CD’s for the next 6 months and then re-evaluate. I am in my early 40’s and I am staying put and actually just bought some stock a few weeks ago I thought was cheap compared to its historic norms. My reasoning for staying in is look at what happened in 2007-8 and I feel like I have plenty of time. I am also very new to investing, like 8 years new, and only using my play money so I tend to gamble a little more. 
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A typical rule of thumb is your equities exposure should be (1 - your age). My age is 38 so I would be exposed to 62% equities.
In reality, I’m a lot more exposed to that and it’s not a perfect measure. The point is a broader one. The older you are (really the nearer you are to needing to use the funds), the less you want to be exposed to equities. The market will come back but maybe not as quickly as you want it to if you need it soon.
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